Week ahead: Global cues, rupee movement to weigh on Sensex, Nifty

The upcoming week may see tumultuous trading as traders roll over holdings in the F&O segment from the near-month June series to the July series. The F&O contracts for June 2022 will expire on June 30, 2022.

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Patterns in global stock markets, the rupee’s movement against the dollar, and crude oil prices will determine bourse trends in the near future.

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High oil costs will be a drag on oil-importing countries like India, which imports around 85% of its fuel. High oil prices caused by a lack of supply due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the sanctions imposed on Moscow, are a major source of concern for India.

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The Reserve Bank of India increased its full-year inflation prediction to 6.7% from 5.7% in June.

On June 24, international benchmark Brent crude futures finished the week at $113.12 a barrel, up $3 a barrel, but a flat week on week on fears that quicker policy tightening by central banks might hamper growth.

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So far in June, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have purchased about Rs 42,000 crore worth of shares, compared to nearly Rs 51,000 crore in the preceding month.

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The monsoon’s progress will be continuously monitored. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, June 23, 2022, that the Southwest Monsoon is expected to reach the whole country by 6 July 2022, rather than the usual date of 8 July 2022.

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Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) would be watched in their investments. FIIs have sold Rs 53,600 crore worth of shares in June, the third-highest monthly outflow since March 2020, compared to Rs 54,300 crore in the previous month.

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Automobile manufacturers will release their monthly sales figures on July 1st. Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki India, TVS Motor, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Mahindra & Mahindra, Eicher Motors, Escorts, and other companies would be under the spotlight. 

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On June 30, India’s fiscal deficit and infrastructure output figures for May will be announced, while the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June will be announced a day later.

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Foreign exchange reserves for the week ended June 24, as well as deposit and bank loan growth figures for the week ended June 17, will be released on July 1.

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China will release the NBS Manufacturing PMI for June 2022 on June 30, 2022. The Caixin Services PMI for June will be released by China on July 1st, 2022. On June 29, 2022, Japan will release Consumer Confidence statistics for June.

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In the United States, the May New Home Sales statistics will be released on June 24, 2022. The May Durable Goods Orders for the United States will be announced on June 27, 2022. The June ISM Manufacturing PMI statistics for the United States will be released on July 1, 2022.