Polls on horizon: Will farm law repeal alter political dynamics?

Prime Minister
Narendra Modi on Friday addressed the nation to announce that the Centre has
decided to withdraw the three contentious farm laws that had farmers across
Punjab and western Uttar Pradesh agitated for over a year. Modi’s move, comes
on the occasion of Guru Nanak Jayanti, an auspicious occasion for Sikhs who
were at the forefront of the protest, is being seen as the Bharatiya Janata
Party’s attempt to woo voters ahead of the Assembly elections in Punjab next
year.

Also Read | Explained: Why are the farm laws being repealed

Further, farmers
in western Uttar Pradesh have also been protesting the farm laws and the
decision to repeal them may have an electoral impact in India’s most populous
state. The decision to repeal the laws may give birth to new political equations
across northwestern India, which is a key part of BJP’s electoral power.

Also Read | A look back at farm laws and farmers’ protest

Amarinder-BJP
tie-up

Captain Amarinder
Singh was forced out of the Congress and Punjab chief ministerial position
earlier this year. Since then, Amarinder Singh has decided to float his own
party for the Punjab polls and said that he might consider a tie-up with the
BJP if the farmers’ protest was resolved in their favour.

Also Read | ‘Fear of elections’: Oppositions on Centre repealing farm laws

Now, with the farm
laws being withdrawn, this paves the way for the BJP to tie-up with Amarinder
Singh and find a foothold in Punjab.

The Akali-BJP
split

Bringing in the
three farm laws has proved expensive to the BJP in terms of coalition partners.
The Akali Dal, one of the BJP’s oldest allies, walked out of the NDA in protest
against the farm laws. The announced repeal of the farm laws may bring
political equations back on track.

Electoral
fate of farm groups

As assembly
elections approached, farm unions said they might enter the political arena if
the farm laws are not repealed. Now, having tasted victory by making the Centre
take back the farm laws, they might still want to have a larger political
impact. Buoyed by the success of their agitation, farm unions may still be an
X-factor in the Punjab elections.

Also Read | Will wait: Rakesh Tikait says farmers will stay put till laws are repealed

Impact on Western
Uttar Pradesh

While Punjab is
certainly the state most impacted by the farm agitations, western Uttar Pradesh
is likely to see an impact. Rakesh Tikait, farm leader and national
spokesperson of the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU), said the protesting farmers
will not return home unless the farm laws are repealed when the monsoon session
begins on November 29. The impact that Tikait will have in the Uttar Pradesh
polls remains to be seen.