Why second COVID-19 wave in India could be more aggressive than the first

The daily COVID-19 infections in India are rising at an unnerving rate, going up from 8,635 cases a day on February 1 to 81,466 cases on April 1. Scientists are worried about not only the double mutation cases reported from 18 states, many of them from Maharashtra but the speed at which the virus is spreading in this second wave.

The sudden spike in coronavirus cases comes after a declining trend that lasted for more than five months. While experts were expecting a second wave, they are caught unawares by the ferocity of the spread and many have expressed an opinion that the new wave may surpass the previous peak in September when 98,000 cases were reported in a day.

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This assessment is based on the fact that almost 80% of the current daily cases come from Maharashtra but several other states — Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh  — have started showing an upward trend. When these states peak, one can well imagine what the figures will be. And by then more states may have joined the upward trend pattern.

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These calculations indicate that the country’s second wave may be more aggressive than the first one. For the week ending March 25, India on average recorded 47,442 new infections a day. Just a week earlier, the national seven-day average of daily cases was 28,551. At this rate, the second wave may well surpass the peak of the first wave.

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How long will the second wave last?

Going by the projections in a State Bank of India (SBI) research report titled ‘The second wave of infections’ the duration of the second COVID-19 wave might last up to 100 days starting from Feb 15.

“Though global COVID-19 experience shows the second wave much higher in intensity than the first wave, presence of vaccine makes the difference currently. But India will be able to manage the situation better,” the report said.

Has the second wave peaked?

“Considering the number of days from the current level of daily new cases to the peak level during the first wave, India might reach the peak in the second half of April,” the report added.