GDP growth projected at 11% in 2021-22, India showing V-shaped recovery: Chief Economic Advisor

Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian launched the Economic Survey 2020-21 on Friday, which was tabled in Parliament earlier the day by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. 

The Economic Survey details the state of the economy ahead of the government’s Budget for the fiscal year beginning April 1, 2021.

Subramanian said, “India is showing V-shaped recovery, like that of Indian cricket team’s win against Australia.”

The first chapter 1 of the Economic Survey is dedicated to all the COVID-19 warriors in India and it’s about saving lives and livelihood. 

He says, “India expected to witness current account surplus during the current financial year after a gap of 17 years.” The CEC adds, “The GDP estimated to contract 7.7% in current fiscal year ending March 31.”

“Based on trends available for April to November 2020, there is likely to be fiscal slippage during the year,” says Subramanian.

In India’s policy response, which was guided by Research in Epidemiology and Economics, the need for the (COVID-19) pandemic curve to be flattened was pointed because that gives time for health and the testing infrastructure to be ramped up, says Subramanian. 

India’s policy response was guided by the realisation that GDP will come back but not lost human lives, says Subramanian. He adds, “Early intense lockdown saved lives, helped faster recover.”

He says the Policy response enabled India to manage the (coronavirus) pandemic effectively, adding, “India’s lockdown strategy prevented 37 lakh COVID-19 cases, 1 lakh deaths.”

“During the period, the farm sector growth remains a silver lining. Meanwhile, the services, manufacturing, construction hit hardest.”

“The stringency of COVID-19 lockdown correlates with negative economic growth in the same period but with positive growth in the future time period,” says Subramanian.