Explained: What North Korea wants from recent weapons tests

North Korea’s recent test-missile explosion is unlikely to
stop leader Kim Jong Un from chasing big plans this year to boost a nuclear arsenal
he hopes will challenge his archrival, the United States.

Kim, in fact, may use it as a stepping stone to his first
intercontinental ballistic missile test launch in years — and of the North’s
biggest weapon — while diplomacy with Washington remains stalled.

It’s unclear what went wrong with Wednesday’s launch or how
soon North Korea will conduct another test.

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What many observers agree on is the North’s next goal: A
space launch for a spy satellite that simultaneously tests technology for an
ICBM that could accurately target all of the continental United States,
possibly with multiple nuclear warheads.

Success would allow Kim to adding major new weapons systems to
his arsenal, boost public support at home and increase his leverage in future
negotiations with a Biden administration that is increasingly distracted with
the war in Ukraine and other major issues.

Here’s a look at what North Korea might be up to during one of
its busiest weapons testing runs in years.

A Monster ICBM

Days before North Korea’s failed launch Wednesday, Pyongyang
conducted two mid-range ballistic missile firings that it said were designed to
test cameras for a reconnaissance satellite. U.S. and South Korean officials,
however, said the launches were meant to test a new ICBM system first displayed
during a North Korean military parade in 2020.

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That weapon is the developmental 25-meter (82-foot)
Hwasong-17 missile, the North’s longest-range weapon and, by some estimates,
the world’s biggest road-mobile ballistic missile system. Its potential maximum
range of 15,000 kilometres (9,320 miles) places all of the continental United
States within striking distance.

North Korea has other ICBMs, and its flight tests in 2017
demonstrated an ability to reach the American homeland. But experts say that
the Hwasong-17’s size suggests it can carry a bigger payload or multiple
nuclear warheads that can defeat missile defence systems.

“Putting three warheads on it would allow them to drop
one bomb on Washington, D.C., a second one on New York and the third one on
Chicago,” said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at the Korea Aerospace
University in South Korea.

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In ballistic missile launches on Feb. 27 and March 5,
experts say North Korea likely tested the first-stage rocket for the
Hwasong-17. South Korean military officials suggested that Wednesday’s launch
also involved parts of the Hwasong-17.

A SPY SATELLITE

Kim last year publicly vowed to acquire a spy satellite,
along with a missile that can carry multiple warheads and the ability to
precision attack targets 15,000 kilometres away.

North Korea has already put two Earth observation satellites
in orbit. But the launches were primarily meant to improve its long-range
missile technology, and there is no evidence that the satellites have ever
relayed space-based imagery back to the North.

“North Korean missiles’ efficiency will be low without
a reconnaissance satellite,” Chang said. “They can (precisely) strike
targets only when they have accurate information about them.”

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Before a spy satellite launch, Pyongyang will likely inform
international aviation and maritime authorities of a launch window, something
it did in its previous satellite liftoffs, said Lee Choon Geun, an honorary
research fellow at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute.

The United States and its allies are certain to condemn such
a launch as a cover for a missile test. But they’ll likely fail to get new U.N.
sanctions against North Korea because China and Russia, two of veto-wielding
members of the U.N. Security Council and friends of the North, will object.

Chang said North Korea hasn’t likely acquired a high-level
spy satellite because of U.N. sanctions that ban the import of necessary
materials, but it can still use existing technology and carry out a launch if
it opts for a more political message toward the United States.

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A launch might happen before the April 15 birth anniversary
of Kim’s late grandfather and state founder Kim Il Sung, or the May 10
inauguration of a new conservative South Korean president.

What Kim wants

Wednesday’s launch was the North’s 10th weapons test this
year. The high number demonstrates Kim’s determination to cement the North’s
status as nuclear power and to wrest concessions from Washington from a
position of strength, said Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korea studies at
Seoul’s Ewha Woman’s University.

“North Korea is focusing everything on that goal
because their possibility of achieving it has never been higher,” Park
said.

Washington’s preoccupation with the Russia-Ukraine war and
its intensifying competition with Beijing could allow the North to think it
could get away with more provocative weapons demonstrations, such as a
resumption of long-range missile testing.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine doesn’t likely offer direct
lessons for Pyongyang about the risks of denuclearizing. That’s because Ukraine
never had operational control over the nuclear weapons it transferred to Russia
following the collapse of the Soviet Union. But Son Hyo-jong, a researcher for
Seoul’s Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, recently wrote that North Korea
may understand that Russia never would have attacked Ukraine if it didn’t have
nuclear weapons and ICBMs to prevent the U.S. from interfering. That could give
Kim added reason to pursue a nuclear arsenal as a way to stand up to the United
States.

North Korea’s recent testing activity is part of Kim’s
efforts to advance and modernize his country’s nuclear and missile arsenal to
cope with what he calls U.S. hostility.

Since taking power in late 2011, Kim has carried out more
than 70 rounds of ballistic missile tests, compared with 22 rounds during his
father Kim Jong Il’s 17-year rule and nine rounds during Kim Il Sung’s 46-year
rule.

“Kim Jong Un has been saying he’s made his country into
a military power … and that’s something that his father and grandfather
didn’t achieve,” said analyst Seo Yu-Seok at the Seoul-based Institute of
North Korean Studies. “Now it appears impossible to revive his economy, so
he may think it’s better to further boost his military credentials.”