Is US fighting a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine?

The US government has asked Congress for $33 billion more in aid for Ukraine, which includes $20 billion for arms and munitions. This is nearly seven times the total amount sent to the eastern European nation since Russian President Vladimir Putin sent in troops on February 24. 

Washington’s latest move comes despite warnings from Moscow that any countries seeking to interfere in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, will face a swift response. Putin’s threat – “We have all the tools for this, that no one else can boast of having. We won’t boast about it: we’ll use them, if needed” – also seems to have been shrugged off by the Joe Biden administration, who now admit they “want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine”, as per Defense Secretary Llyod Austin’s statement which comes after his Kyiv visit last week. 

Defensive to offensive – New battle tactics need new US aid

The nature of aid provided to Ukraine is also changing. The US agreed to send Soviet-era tanks to the war-torn nation at the beginning of April. This marked the first time in the war that Washington agreed to send tanks to Ukraine, earlier expressing a concern that complex weaponry was not being sent to Kyiv because Ukrainian troops would require time to learn to use them. 

However, Mark F. Cancian, Senior Adviser, International Security Program of the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, had earlier noted that Ukraine could receive systems which they already have in their inventory. The nation, which uses upgraded Soviet-era tanks in its military, knows how to operate them. 

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Earlier the US had provided mostly defensive weapons to Ukraine and even stopped an offer from NATO-member Poland to provide Mig-29s. With time, the nature of aid moved more towards offensive weapons as seen in the White House-provided fact sheet of US aid to Ukraine, as of March 16, 2022. From small arms ammunition, grenade, mortar, and artillery rounds, the later aid packages include Javelins and anti-aircraft systems. 

This comes with a lesser chance of the capital, Kyiv, falling, and the battle shifting to the east, where warfare is expected to take place on flat, open, and rural terrain, involving infantry and artillery. 

In April, against the looming second onslaught from the Donbas region, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in an interview with ABC News, “We’re going to get Ukraine the weapons it needs to beat back the Russians to stop them from taking more cities and towns where they commit these crimes”. 

Reviving a World War-II era programme 

Congress, on April 29, passed the lend-lease bill which allows US President Biden to expedite lending or leasing defence weaponry to Ukraine for the fiscal years 2022 and 2023. 

This policy was in place during World War II, allowing the US to send weapons to Great Britain and its allies at little cost. 

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As Biden urged Congress to take swift action, he remarked in a statement “We either back the Ukrainian people as they defend their country, or we stand by as the Russians continue their atrocities and aggression in Ukraine.” 

Zelensky’s cries for help – once ignored, now answered

Despite the current staunch support for Ukraine, the US and other NATO members had ignored Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s earlier demands for tanks and planes. Zelensky had even said that just one percent of NATO’s tanks and planes would be enough to aid Ukraine in the war against Russia. 

However, at the time, NATO had refrained from sending offensive weapons to avoid escalating the situation in Ukraine and had also noted Ukrainians would have difficulty learning to operate the new weaponry. 

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Now, the US is not only sending helicopters, attack drones and heavy artillery, Pentagon has also stated that Ukrainian troops are being trained in Germany to operate these weapon systems. Sullivan, in an NBC interview, referred to more coordinated support for Ukraine in face of Russia’s aggression, saying the US was “working around the clock to deliver [our own] weapons . . . and organizing and coordinating the delivery of weapons from many other countries.”

Amid the attack from the east, the Pentagon, on April 20, announced that Ukraine had received fighter planes as well as aircraft parts to bolster their force. Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that Ukrainian forces “right now have available to them more fixed-wing fighter aircraft than they did two weeks ago”. 

Putin’s threats: Or how we learned to learned to start worrying and fear the bomb 

Despite Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation, from putting the nation’s forces on high alert at the start of the war to threatening the use of “tools” as a response to international interference, a US defence official noted, “We do not assess that there is a threat of the use of nuclear weapons and no threat to NATO territory.” 

Meanwhile, Russia has maintained that it will only use nuclear weapons if its existence is threatened, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in an interview with Dubai-based news outlet, Al Arabiya, said that there were no winners in a nuclear war. 

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Despite Russia’s repeated warnings, Lawrence Freedman, Professor Emeritus of War Studies at King’s College London, noted Russia shows no signs of using nuclear or chemical weapons in the Ukraine war. 

In the shadows: Fears of a proxy war

While President Biden has thus far remained unwavering in the fact the US troops will not engage in direct conflict with Russian forces, Sam Winter-Levy, a warfare specialist at Princeton University feels the increased military support to Ukraine has turned the situation into a proxy war. 

Writing on the website, War on the Rocks, Winter-Levy noted, “The West needs to be clear-eyed about the situation it confronts. It is currently waging a proxy war with Russia — one that poses very real risks of escalation”, adding that the current way might still be the best option. 

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He concluded, “Ultimately, the only options worse than a proxy war are a cheap Russian victory in Ukraine — or a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States”.