As the Federal Reserve looks to curb the higher-than-expected inflation, JPMorgan Chase economists expect central bank policymakers to hike interest rates nine times.
JPMorgan’s economists – led by Bruce Kasman projected nine quarter-percentage-point rate increases at every policy-setting meeting until March 2023.
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In an analyst note they said, “We now look for the Fed to hike 25bp at each of the next nine meetings, with the policy rate approaching a neutral stance by early next year.”
The revised projection came after the Labor Department reported a 7.5% rise in the consumer price index (CPI) in January, which is the fastest increase since February 1982, when inflation touched 7.6%. It jumped 0.6% in the one month from December. The CPI measures a group of goods ranging from gasoline and groceries to health care and rents.
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This year the possibility of an aggressive interest rate hike plan is also gaining traction among traders. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, a large number of traders are now pricing in a chance of a hike at every Fed meeting this year.
Most Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are also expecting the Fed to increase rates seven times this year to tackle rising inflation.
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Minutes from the Fed’s January 25-26 meeting reinforced the idea that the central bank could adopt a more aggressive policy normalization strategy.
Last month, many policymakers predicted that current economic conditions might lead to a faster normalization of policy than in 2015, but they emphasized that this outlook depends on financial developments. Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed kept interest rates ultra-low for years, only raising them once in 2015. During the next three years, the rate was raised eight more times.
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“Compared with conditions in 2015, when the Committee last started removing monetary policy accommodation, participants believed there was a much stronger outlook for economic growth, substantially higher inflation, and a significantly tighter labour market,” the minutes said. The majority of participants thus suggested faster increases in the target range for the federal funds rate than in the post-2015 period would likely be warranted, should the economy evolve in line with the Committee’s expectations.”
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While policymakers did not provide a specific timeline for the interest rate liftoff, they hinted it could happen during the March 15-16 meeting. In the minutes, officials expressed their intention to raise rates “soon” and to begin reducing the $9 trillion balance sheet shortly after.
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According to Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade, there is still a big question mark when it comes to timeline, but the rate hikes are coming and they are coming soon. Investors should note that even with a few hikes, rates will remain far lower than historical standards, so while they may create volatility, in the long term investors should take it in stride.