California Governor Gavin Newsom’s fate will be decided by the voters of the state in a rare recall election. The election is important, not only for Newsom, as in if he can keep his job, but these elections will also decide the political landscape in the traditionally blue state where Republicans picked up four House seats in 2020.
The best-case scenario for the Republican ambitions for ousting Newsom in a state that has overwhelmingly voted for the Democrats in the past has always been outsized GOP turnout and low Democratic turnout. The reason there is no chance for the Republicans otherwise is that the registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, according to CNN.
The 22 million registered voters in the state have already voted by mail ballots last month. Early voting locations were also available in all the counties for at least four days beginning on the Saturday before the election. Many counties kept these locations open for longer than that.
So there is already a huge pile of data about the voters. Republicans are hoping for a massive Election Day turnout to tip the scales in their favour.
But the data so far favours the Democrats and it is them who have been more engaged than expected. About 53% of ballots cast so far have been from registered Democrats and 25% from registered Republicans, according to Political Data Inc. The firm which gave this data works for Democratic candidates, progressive organisations, and nonpartisan campaigns, according to CNN. If the data is to be believed, the Democrats are safe, at least at the registration level in the state.
Even so, there are some key areas to watch at the turnout level on Tuesday if Newsom has to ensure his survival.
These are the Democratic areas that are key to this election:
One-time GOP strongholds
The Central Valley
LA County's and Imperial County's Latino communities