India’s economy is expected to grow at 7.5%-8% in this
financial year, with exports playing a crucial role in the country’s success
story, said CII President TV Narendran.

He stated that the country should stay prepared for any
consequences of the upcoming wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of
the Russia-Ukraine war.

“We are confident that the economy can retain a high
growth trajectory this year. So, we are very optimistic on the export front.
Exports will be a key component of India’s success story going forward,”
Narendran said.

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The comeback of the COVID-19 worldwide will impact the
global supply chain and CII’s India economic growth estimate of 7.5%-8% in the
current financial year factor these developments, the President of the industry
body told PTI.

“The experience with COVID shows that every time
there is a fresh wave globally, it does hit India as well. Therefore, we must
be prepared for the future waves,” he said.

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Narendran said that the industry has defined its safety
protocols and has moved up the learning graph in managing COVID and operating
safely despite the rise in infections.

“Therefore, in our view, we are much better prepared
to deal with the next wave. In terms of immediate action, the administration of
precautionary doses and the vaccination of those below 18 years could be
expedited. People need to be reminded of the importance of COVID appropriate
behaviour and hence reminder campaigns are important,” the CII President said.

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The strategy of micro-containment has worked well for
India in the past. The CII does not expect a scenario of re-imposition of major
lockdowns. The globally accepted principle of managing Covid is to learn to
live with it instead of imposing strict lockdowns.

Growth for the current fiscal remains within the
7.5-8% range. The IMF is looking at 8.2% growth for India and
expects it to continue to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the
world. Average inflation for the year is expected to remain within the RBI’s
target range, Narendran said.

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He added that consumer demand has been increasing
strongly with the relaxations in the pandemic-related restrictions, especially
in contact-intensive sectors.

Narendran said “Once the external situation
stabilizes, we are likely to see a rise in pent up demand. Rural consumption is
likely to remain strong as terms of trade improve and India exports its
agricultural produce to newer markets in the Middle East and Africa.”

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On the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, he said that in
the globalised and interconnected world, no country can be fully protected from
the events happening outside of its political boundaries. Even as India’s
direct economic engagement with Russia or Ukraine is low, this does not protect
us.

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He further said that
the rising global crude oil prices have raised inflation and brought input cost
pressures across sectors.