Kerala is the only state that continues to consistently log over 10,000 COVID-19 cases every day. The state, which boasts of a robust healthcare system, accounts for around 40% of India’s total caseload as of now. Experts have different theories on why the second COVID wave is not receding in the southern state while the daily numbers have come down to double digits in almost every other state.

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Kerala has  had a very good record of handling health emergencies. The adept handling of the 2018 Nipah virus outbreak had made international headlines. Even the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was not able to inflict much damage in  the  state. But, the second wave has been an entirely different story. Despite lockdowns, testing  and aggressive vaccination, numbers are not coming down.

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In the week ending July 26, Kerala reported 1,10,593 cases with a single day spike of 17,481 cases on July 21, with an average positivity rate of 11 per cent. This despite the fact that the state is vaccinating at a rate much faster than other states.

About 21% of the 18 + population in Kerala has received both shots of COVID vaccine. This is  much higher than the national average of 9.9%.

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So let’s see what experts have to say on Kerala’s unrelenting COVID numbers:

Rijo M John, a health economist, said that  the numbers had to do with unexposed population. “Kerala still has a larger % of popn unexposed to the virus compared to India. This may be due to relatively better compliance with masking & social distancing despite high population density,” he tweeted.

This is borne out by the latest sero survey. The fourth ICMR sero-survey shows that only 42.7% of the state’s population has antibodies — the national average is 67.6 %.

Dr Santosh Kumar, Deputy Superintendent of Government Medical College, Thiruvananthapuram, says it is perhaps time to look at a new composite index to know where we are in the pandemic.

“TPR has been between 10-12 for the last 6 weeks, everyday, 10,000-15000 cases, gradually increasing. Total cases over one lakh. But hospitalisation… for example, in Thiruvananthapuram medical college, it was 800-1000 but now it has reduced to 250-300. This is a significant decrease,” he added, according to ndtv.com

Kerala Health Minister Veena George told the website that a similar trend was seen in the first wave too and called the phenomenon “dragging the wave”. She said the second wave started in mid-April and the peak was mid-May when 43,000 daily cases were being reported. “We tried to delay the peak and now we are trying to drag the curve,” she said.

But, experts have a big worry. They say dragging the wave would also mean providing opportunity for more mutations and variants. This is alarming in the long run, they say.