OPEC+ is expected to continue with its existing deal and
agree to another small output increase for June during its meeting on May 5, even
as Russia expects its output to shrink further, reported Reuters.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, have been laying
out record production cuts in place since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in 2020.

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According to a deal reached in July 2021, the group is
set to raise output targets by 432,000 barrels per day (BPD) every month until
September end, to unwind its remaining output cuts.

In March, it agreed to increase the planned output for
May.

Major consumers such as the United States, have been
pressurizing the organization to increase output at a faster pace, however, as
the Western sanctions-hit Russian output.

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Russia on Wednesday suspended gas supplies to Bulgaria
and Poland for not paying rubles, while the European Union (EU) warned that
complying with the demand could break sanctions.

However, OPEC+ has been struggling to increase output at
its agreed targets, a trend that is expected to continue.

It produced 1.45 million BPD below its production targets
in March, as Russian output started declining.

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Russia’s oil output may decline by as much as 17% in 2022 as
it struggles with Western sanctions, reported Reuters citing an economy
ministry document.

The level of fall would be the most significant since the
1990s when the oil industry suffered from underinvestment. 

Russia’s oil production started to decline in March and
had dropped by around 7.5% by mid-April.

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According to the report, Russian oil output may decline
to between 433.8 million and 475.3 million tonnes (between 8.68 million and 9.5
million barrels per day) in 2022 from 524 million tonnes in 2021.