The 2021 southwest
monsoon is expected to be normal after two years, a private weather forecaster
Skymet Weather said observing the beginning of the rainfall season. 2019 and
2020 had experienced above-normal southwest monsoon.

monsoon is determined by one of the major elements, La Nina, that is related
with the cooling of Pacific waters. The Skymet Weather has said, “There
is sufficient cooling in the Pacific Ocean now and La Niña conditions are at
peak. The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are likely to rise soon and the
probability of continued La Niña will fall”, reported PTI.

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They also mentioned that this will decrease to approx 50%
when the monsoon occurs

“This could be one of the normal monsoon years making a
sound start and ending within the upper half of normal range. The range of
normal rainfall is 96-104 per cent of LPA (880.6 mm). Initial readings are indicative
of some risk attached to few pockets,” the Skymet Weather added.

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The weather agency also said that previous year’s monsoon was
directed by La Nina which is peaking at present. However, it will reduce during
the spring season and turn neutral later through the
monsoon season, reported PTI.

Skymet Weather had not issued monsoon forecast last year. India
Meteorological Department, the country’s official weather forecasting, usually
issues its first outlook for the monsoon in April.