As Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) president Nitish Kumar launches his Assembly election campaign with a virtual rally on Monday, several issues will challenge his run for a fourth straight win. Prominent among them being the issues within the NDA coalition, including an aggressive and ambitious BJP, the COVID-19 pandemic and unemployment woes.

Assembly elections are scheduled in this state of 122 million people in October-November but the parties are already in poll mode with Home Minister Amit Shah unofficially launching the BJP campaign with a virtual rally in June. Buoyed by Shah’s pitch, the BJP workers are very enthused and already out in the field  aggressively seeking support. A part of 69-year-old Nitish Kumar’s problems stem from this  mood in the saffron party.

Exuberant BJP

In a recent meeting with party chief JP Nadda, BJP MPs from Bihar demanded that the party must not play second fiddle to the JD(U) and must get an equal share of seats. This demand may later translate into seeking the CM’s post by rotation, feel analysts.

Bihar BJP leaders, according to reports, feel that realities have changed post-2019 Lok Sabha elections that saw the party post a spectacular win. They feel that this new equation should reflect in the seat-sharing for the upcoming polls.

Barring 2015, when Nitish Kumar teamed up with Lalu Yadav’s RJD, the BJP and JD(U) have contested elections as allies for most of the last two decades. In the 2005 assembly elections, JD(U) and BJP had fought on 139 and 102 seats, winning 88 and 55 respectively. In 2010, the JD(U) contested 141 seats and won 115, while the BJP contested 102 seats and won 91.

In 2015, the BJP contested 157 seats, the LJP 42, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party 23 and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM 21. The BJP won just 53 seats, the LJP and the RLSP won two each while the HAM could win just one. The Nitish-Lalu ‘mahagathbandhan’ carried the day and rode to power.

Unease in alliance

The return of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (secular) (HAM(S)) to the NDA fold has reignited its rivalry with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party. The LJP, now led by Paswan’s MP son Chirag, has often been critical of the Nitish Kumar government over a variety of issues ranging from alleged corruption in government schemes, to road construction and prohibition laws. But, analysts say that with Manjhi’s return, Nitish may have found  a perfect counter to Paswans’ threat tactics.

The LJP, is reportedly unhappy over the return of the HAM(S) into the NDA fold as the target vote bank of both is the same. Dalits, who roughly constitute around 16% of the state’s voters, form the foundation of support of both the LJP and HAM(S), and some friction between the two parties for a greater share in the electoral pie appears inevitable after Manjhi’s return. The two had crossed swords even before the 2014 general elections for a larger share of tickets. Manjhi was then a part of the NDA and the JD(U) a constituent of the grand alliance.

There is discontent also over the six RJD MLAs who recently switched to the JD(U). All six had won from seats contested by the BJP or LJP in 2015, giving rise to questions about how they will be accommodated. Both BJP and the LJP will not be willing to part with their constituencies. Nitish Kumar will have to do a balancing act here too.

Pandemic pain

Nitish Kumar’s problem No. 3 stems from the global COVID-19 pandemic. With increasing numbers, forecast of a surge in October-November and poor state of the healthcare system, the Chief Minister will have his hands full on this front.

Bihar with 1.42 lakh coronavirus cases and 646 death, was placed among the most vulnerable states by July 2020 study by The Lancet journal that based its report on key indicators like housing, hygiene, and the health system.

The journal, which listed eight Bihar districts as the most vulnerable, found the state’s health infrastructure abysmally poor. Bihar has only 0.11 beds for every 1,000 people and just 0.39 doctors.

Migrants’ return

The pandemic is not only testing Bihar’s healthcare infrastructure, it has also triggered a reverse migration with lakhs of workers returning home in these uncertain times. This has burdened the already stressed job market with the MNREGA failing to keep up with the huge surge in job demand. In a state that is strapped for funds creating new jobs is not an easy task.

According to the state government data, over 8 lakh migrants had returned to the state by July and more are expected to return as the crash in GDP translates into further slowing down of the manufacturing activities. A Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) survey put unemployment in Bihar for April 2020 at 46.6%, 20 percentage points above the national rate. This figure is expected to go up.

One of the 2005 poll promises of Nitish Kumar was that Bihari people would not have to migrate outside the state. However, the figures show that nothing much has changed since. 

Flood fury

Like every year, floods wreaked havoc in parts of the state this year too inundating several districts and affecting lakhs of people. Floods have damaged kharif crops, including paddy and sugarcane, and buildings. But what dented the government’s image was bridges collapsing, one within hours and another within a month of being inaugurated.

In August, to highlight their plight, some of these flood-affected people were seen standing waist-deep in water chanting “Jai Shri Ram” on the day of the Bhoomi Poojan for Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.

The flood has not only dampened the poll mood, it has also dealt a double blow to the administration already struggling with the pandemic management.