The exit polls for Assam assembly have predicted a majority for the BJP in 126-member Assembly. As the first exit polls began getting telecast soon after the eight-phase elections ended in West Bengal, projections for Assam gave a clear edge to the BJP-led alliance over the Congress-led opposition.
According to India Today-Axis My India exit poll, NDA will win 75-85 seats, Congress alliance is expected to win 40-50 whereas others are predicted to win 0-5 seats.
P-MARQ has predicted that NDA will win 62-70 seats, while the Congress is expected to get 56-64 seats.
According to ABP C-Voter, BJP-led NDA alliance is predicted to win a second term winning 58-71 seats, while the Congress alliance ‘mahajoth’ is expected to get 53-66 votes.
Exit polls, a poll of voters done immediately after they exit the polling station, are known to go wrong at times. Most recent being the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections when most predicted a clear win for the Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagatbandhan but the alliance lost out in a keen contest that went down to the wire.
Also read: EC bans all victory processions on or after counting day, on May 2 amid COVID surge
The voting for 126-member Assam assembly was held in three phases on March 27, April 1 and April 6. In the outgoing Assembly, the ruling BJP combine held 71 seats, the Congress led Opposition 43 and 12 were vacant.
Also read: West Bengal exit polls predict narrow win for Mamata Banerjee
While the ruling BJP is looking to retain power in the assembly elections, the Congress’s alliance with Badruddin Ajmal’s AIDUF is expected to upset calculations in some seats. The Congress hopes to win the state it ruled for 15 uninterrupted years from 2001 to 2016.
This time, the AIUDF has contested 19 seats as a part of the alliance with the Congress. In the 2016 assembly election, division of voters between the Congress and Ajmal’s party had led to the BJP winning over 20 seats.
Read more: Assembly elections exit polls: It’s BJP vs the Rest in 5 states
In the BJP, buzz has already started over who will the chief minister if the party comes to power on May 2. Himanta Biswa Sarma, who had joined the BJP before the 2016 Assembly election and was widely credited with the party’s win in the state, is seen as a strong contender to current Chief Minister Sarbanda Sonowal.
The saffron party was a little defensive during the campaign because of the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). The state witnessed violent protests in 2019 after Parliament approved the Citizenship Amendment Bill that sought to fast-track the grant of citizenship to non-Muslim minorities from neighbouring countries of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan.
Another irritant for the BJP was the former ally, Bodoland Peoples’ Front (BPF), joining the Congress-led alliance “mahajoth”.
The votes will be counted on May 2 along with that of four other states — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry.
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