With the
Maharashtra government at risk of falling, the Nationalist Congress Party
(NCP), one of the alliance partners in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) along with
the Shiv Sena and Congress, is deliberating its political positioning. Eknath
Shinde
, the rebel Shiv Sena MLA, is reported to have received support from 36
out of 55 Shiv Sena MLAs. As such, the fall of the Maharashtra government seems
only a matter of time.

Reacting to the
Maharashtra crisis, NCP leader Jayant Patil said, “If government stays, we will
be in power, if government goes, we will sit in Opposition.” The NCP leader’s
comment, reported by news agency ANI, situates the Sharad Pawar-led party in clear
opposition to the BJP. Media reports claim Eknath Shinde doesn’t seek to break
away from the Shiv Sena
but wants Bal Thackeray’s party to run the government
with BJP on the ‘Hindutva’ agenda.

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Shiv Sena has 55
MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly after the death of one of its members. The NCP
has 53 and the Congress 44. All these come to 152 seats. If Shinde has to pull
off a coup, he needs 37 MLAs to come with him and support the BJP. The BJP has
106 seats in the Assembly, 37 less than the majority mark.

The NCP leader’s
comments are important because many of the Shiv Sena MLA’s have expressed their
grievances against the NCP. Some Shiv Sena leaders feel that the NCP has become
too dominant in the Maha Vikas Aghadi government. Further, in rural parts of
Maharashtra, where the BJP is a minor presence, the electoral contest is largely
between Shiv Sena and NCP. As such, a dominant NCP is said to have eaten into
Shiv Sena’s support base.

Uddhav Thackeray
and those on his side seem to be preparing for the government to fall. Bal
Thackeray’s son left the chief minister’s residence on Wednesday and moved to ‘Matoshri’—
the Thackeray’s family home. Uddhav was the only Thackeray to ever take a
government post.