India%20and%20Pakistan%20have%20agreed%20to%20strictly%20observe%20all%20agreements%20on%20ceasefire%20along%20the%20Line%20of%20Control%20%28LoC%29%20and%20other%20sectors%2C%20according%20to%20a%20joint%20statement%20on%2025%20Feb%202021.%20The%20decision%20on%20ceasefire%2C%20effective%20since%20Wednesday%20midnight%2C%20was%20taken%20at%20a%20meeting%20between%20the%20two%20Director%20Generals%20of%20Military%20Operations%20%28DGMOs%29.%20%22Both%20sides%20agreed%20for%20strict%20observance%20of%20all%20agreements%2C%20understandings%20and%20cease%20firing%20along%20the%20Line%20of%20Control%20and%20all%20other%20sectors%20with%20effect%20from%20midnight%20of%20February%2024/25%2C%22%20the%20joint%20statement%20said.%20No%20doubt%20the%20present%20step%20is%20welcome%20but%20remains%20devoid%20of%20any%20assurance%20that%20it%20wouldn%27t%20be%20violated%20with%20impunity%20as%20in%20the%20past.%20Thus%2C%20well%20begun%20both%20on%20the%20LAC%20and%20LC%2C%20yet%20much%20more%20to%20be%20done.%20A%20deeper%20analysis%20of%20the%20roots%20of%20the%20problem%20of%20our%20turbulent%20borders%20beyond%20just%20the%20military%20aspect%20merits%20consideration%20for%20a%20holistic%20solution%20to%20lasting%20peace.
This%20LC%20ceasefire%20agreement%20comes%20at%20the%20heels%20of%20the%20%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/india-china-disengagement-detente-dilemmas-and-delusions%22%3Eongoing%20disengagement%20along%20LAC%20in%20Ladakh%3C/a%3E%20which%20has%20provided%20a%20perceived%20honourable%20exit%20option%20to%20both%20sides%20though%20with%20differing%20perceptions%20of%20%u201CWin%20-%20Win%u201D%26nbsp%3B%20or%20more%20pragmatically%20%u201CNo%20Loss%20-No%20Win%u201D%20situation.%20Both%20sides%20required%20space%20and%20time%20in%20a%20situation%20of%20%u201CNo%20Go%u201D%20and%20address%20more%20critical%20economic%2C%20geopolitical%20and%20domestic%20issues%20by%20putting%20the%20problem%20in%20a%20cold%20storage%20temporarily.%20The%20key%20issue%20is%20the%20problem%20yet%20remains%20till%20it%20surfaces%20again.%20The%20past%20is%20a%20testimony%20of%20the%20future%20in%20this%20context.
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As%20regards%20Pakistan%2C%20the%20relationship%20is%20of%20the%20traditional%20mutual%20obsession%20with%20limited%20hostility%20suiting%20each%20other.%20The%20CI%20/CT%20syndrome%20further%20reinforced%20this%20attachment%20and%20focus.%20Thus%2C%20the%20northern%20front%20surprised%20us%20and%20opened%20our%20eyes%20to%20matters%20of%20neglect%20towards%20our%20primary%20threat%20on%20the%20northern%20and%20eastern%20border.%26nbsp%3B%20Incidentally%2C%20the%20present%20cease%20fire%20consensus%20with%20Pakistan%20also%20comes%20on%20the%20date%20the%20Financial%20Action%20Task%20Force%20%28FATF%29%20decided%20to%20keep%20Pakistan%20on%20its%20%27grey%20list%27%2C%20with%20the%20country%27s%20status%20set%20to%20be%20reviewed%20next%20at%20an%20extraordinary%20plenary%20session%20in%20June%202021.%20It%20said%20%22Pakistan%20remains%20under%20increased%20monitoring%2C%22%20adding%20that%20while%20Islamabad%20had%20made%20%u201Csignificant%20progress%u201D%2C%20there%20remained%20some%20%u201Cserious%20deficiencies%u201D%20in%20mechanisms%20to%20plug%20terrorism%20financing.%20There%20is%20no%20doubt%20that%20the%20Indian%20Army%u2019s%20resolute%20response%20on%20line%20of%20control%20has%20been%20hitting%20the%20Pakistan%20Army%20hard%20and%20bleeding%20Pakistan%20economically%20and%20globally.%20Further%20the%20internal%20turmoil%20and%20economic%20bankruptcy%20prompted%20her%20to%20reach%20out%20to%20India%20for%20a%20cease%20fire.%20It%20also%20suited%20India%20well%20to%20maintain%20calm%20on%20the%20borders%20and%20gain%20time%20and%20space%20to%20address%20many%20other%20pressing%20priorities%20including%20domestic%20front.%26nbsp%3B%20Thus%2C%20halting%20hostilities%20on%20both%20fronts%20in%20a%20COVID-19%20impacted%20era%20threatened%20by%20a%20second%20wave%2C%20is%20a%20positive%20step%20since%20it%20may%20bring%20down%20the%20temperature%20both%20along%20the%20LAC%20and%20LC.
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The%26nbsp%3B%20present%20LC%20ceasefire%20is%20just%20a%20consensus%20and%20not%20institutional%20thereby%20lacking%20assurance%20for%20its%20longevity%20being%20a%20verbal%20agreement%26nbsp%3Blike%20in%20the%20past.%20Verbal%20agreements%20have%20limited%20value%20unless%20they%20are%20put%20in%20black%20and%20white%20and%20backed%20with%20institutional%20abiding%20formal%20framework%20linked%20to%20assured%20commitment.%20It%20must%20be%20remembered%20that%20there%20was%20no%20formal%20written%20LC%20Ceasefire%20Agreement%20even%20in%202003.%20It%20wasn%27t%20followed%20up%20as%20a%20written%20agreement%20as%20needed%20in%20tune%20with%20international%20conventions.%20That%20is%20why%20till%20date%20it%20remained%20fragile%20and%20the%20need%20to%20revert%20to%20fresh%20assurance%2C%20only%20till%20violated%20again.%20Only%20ceasefire%20agreement%20signed%20between%20the%20two%20countries%20was%20a%20follow%20up%20of%20the%201948%20ceasefire%20which%20is%20a%20historic%20legacy%20with%20many%20lessons%20which%20remain%20unlearnt.%20The%20current%20verbal%20agreement%20thus%20to%20be%20meaningful%2C%20needs%20to%20be%20put%20in%20black%20and%20white%2C%20signed%20at%20appropriate%20level%20in%20the%20presence%20of%20Heads%20of%20both%20countries%20and%20later%20ratified%20by%20the%20parliaments.%20Such%20verbal%20assurances%20are%20as%20useful%20as%20Musharraf%20proclaiming%20that%20Pakistan%20soil%20will%20not%20be%20used%20for%20terrorism.
To%20understand%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/dealing-with-china-and-pakistans-threat-to-indias-national-security%22%3E%20Pakistan%20or%20China%3C/a%3E%20we%20need%20to%20understand%20why%20they%20do%20what%20they%20do%20with%20regular%20periodicity%20against%20India.%20If%20we%20don%u2019t%20understand%20and%20address%20the%20key%20issue%20we%20will%20not%20be%20seeking%20lasting%20solutions.%20Pakistan%u2019s%20strategic%20culture%20is%20foundational%20on%20three%20basic%20themes.%20One%2C%20the%20insecurity%20of%20being%20an%20incomplete%20state%20due%20to%20the%20perceived%20unfair%20partition%20and%20inheritance.%20Two%2C%20perceiving%20India%u2019s%20rise%20as%20a%20regional%20hegemon%20aimed%20to%20disintegrate%20Pakistan%20and%20undermine%20Islam%20as%20an%20ideology.%20Three%2C%20Afghanistan%20instability%20syndrome%20aided%20by%20a%20collusive%20threat%20by%20India.%20Thus%2C%20Pakistan%u2019s%20strategic%20culture%20is%20deeply%20rooted%20in%20its%20insecurity%20and%20revisionist%20ideology%20with%20the%20predominance%20of%20the%20military%20and%20mullah%2C%20as%20a%20state%20within%20a%20state.%20Pakistan%20Army%20considers%20itself%20the%20custodians%20of%20this%20ideology%20which%20fuels%20their%20relevance%20and%20predominant%20role%20in%20the%20state.
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Pakistan%u2019s%20strategic%20outlook%20is%20engrained%20through%20the%20lens%20of%20insecurity%20and%20revisionism%2C%20Kashmir%20obsession%2C%20Islamist%20political%20identity%2C%20nuclear%20brinkmanship%20and%20anti-India%20belligerence.%20It%20remains%20as%20the%20hotbed%20of%20terrorism%20which%20often%20boomerangs%20against%20the%20nation%20itself.%20Thus%2C%20it%20continues%20as%20a%20fragile%20rentier%20economy%20with%20poor%20development%20index%2C%20due%20to%20its%20disruptive%20strategies.%20It%20plays%20the%20convenient%20pawn%20to%20China%20encouraging%20its%20risk-taking%20behaviour%20as%20a%20nation%20adding%20to%20regional%20instability%20and%20self-destruct%20mode.
Thus%2C%20we%20need%20to%20tread%20the%20path%20with%20cautious%20optimism%20even%20though%20the%20present%20d%E9tente%20on%20the%20borders%20is%20potentially%20significant.%20It%20may%20be%20premature%20to%20draw%20big%20conclusions%20of%20a%20very%20complex%20problem.%20Further%20as%20the%20military%20dimension%20may%20deescalate%2C%20the%20geopolitical%20dimension%20of%20the%20competition%20may%20actually%20escalate.%20So%2C%20India%20needs%20to%20take%20a%20comprehensive%20view%20of%20the%20regional%20dynamics%2C%20foreign%20policy%20options%20and%20its%20national%20interests.%20It%20also%20needs%20to%20be%20aware%20that%20in%20the%20triangular%20relationship%20of%203%20D%u2019s%20-%20Defence%2C%20Development%20and%20Diplomacy%3B%20sound%20defence%20is%20foundational%20for%20the%20other%20two%20to%20prosper.
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The%20pragmatic%20reality%26nbsp%3B%20is%20that%20we%20can%20change%20everything%20but%20we%20are%20destined%20with%20the%20presence%20of%20inimical%20neighbours%20and%20need%20to%20manage%20them%20astutely.%20The%20realities%20and%20roots%20of%20the%20problem%20need%20to%20be%20understood%20for%20a%20lasting%20solution%20with%20dispassionate%20identification%20of%20our%20SWOT%20as%20a%20nation%2C%20to%20evolve%20enduring%20%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/indias-security-challenges-how-to-build-a-strong-military-and-learn-from-past-mistakes%22%3Estrategies%3C/a%3E%20that%20provide%20solutions%20based%20on%20building%20our%20comprehensive%20national%20power%20and%20capacity.%20Kautilya%20had%20reminded%20us%20of%20the%20four%20types%20of%20threat%20that%20a%20nation%20could%20face%20%u2013%20internal%2C%20external%2C%20externally-aided%20internal%20and%20internally-aided%20external.%20Ironically%20these%20are%20the%20reality%20we%20face%20today%20albeit%20in%20a%20dissimilar%20proportion.%20Our%20primary%20external%20threat%20focus%20cannot%20be%20diluted%20and%20we%20need%20to%20introspect%20as%20to%20why%20our%20deterrence%20failed%20to%20hold%20on%20that%20front.%20Peace%20is%20certainly%20the%20desired%20destination%20for%20development%20and%20prosperity%2C%20yet%20temporary%20reprieve%20cannot%20be%20an%20assurance%20for%20lasting%20peace.%20India%20has%20to%20address%20the%20roots%20of%20the%20problem%20holistically%20and%20pragmatically%20beyond%20just%20military%20for%20lasting%20peace.%20India%20must%20imbibe%20a%20culture%20of%20strategic%20thinking%20and%20not%20play%20to%20the%20galleries%20wishing%20away%20the%20realities%20of%20tomorrow%20and%20attendant%20trust%20deficit.%20It%u2019s%20time%20to%20look%20at%20the%20macro%20picture%20and%20have%20a%20National%20Security%20Strategy%20with%20a%20pragmatic%20Pakistan%20strategy%20and%20a%20reconstructed%20China%20strategy%20for%20lasting%20peace%20and%20shared%20prosperity.%20Our%20capability%20and%20capacity%20voids%20both%20military%20and%20non-military%20need%20to%20be%20addressed%20holistically%20for%20an%20enduring%20deterrence%20against%20future%20threats.%20Presently%20both%20on%20the%20northern%20front%20and%20western%20front%20we%20have%20put%20the%20military%20problem%20in%20cold%20storage%20addressing%20the%20leaves%20yet%20letting%20the%20roots%20of%20the%20larger%20threat%20unattended.%20Yet%20as%20the%20title%20of%20my%20analysis%20reads%20-%20%u201CWell%20Begun%2C%20Much%20to%20be%20Done.%u201D
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