The Delhi government told the Supreme Court in an affidavit on Monday that it was ready to consider a lockdown in the national capital to reduce levels of pollution if other NCR states agreed to do the same. However, various experts believe such a move will achieve little in terms of improving the air quality index, while causing major economic disruption and result in a rebound in emissions once it is lifted.

The suggestion of a lockdown was first made by the Supreme Court on Saturday, when it was taking stock of the capital’s annual air emergency despite measures by the Delhi and Union governments to control the level of pollution. The suggestion of a lockdown was made specifically for Delhi, with the rationale that it would reduce emissions from vehicles and industries, as well as road dust.

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However, experts say that this is merely a reactive measure that is unlikely to result in any development now that the situation has deteriorated. When there is a forecast of a drop in air quality, Mukesh Khare of IIT Delhi, who is also a former expert member of the now-defunct Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control Authority), told Hindustan times that preemptive measures such as lockdowns can be taken.

“We have forecasting systems which can tell when air quality will deteriorate and the concentration levels expected. Measures under Grap (Graded Response Action Plan) and a lockdown should be possibly based on that if required. It is even possible to feed data from the COVID-19 lockdown period and assess the possible reduction that could occur if a decision support system is used,” he told HT.

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The Delhi government’s senior counsel, Rahul Mehra, told the court on Monday that a lockdown would be useless unless it was implemented across the adjoining NCR regions in UP and Haryana. 

The lockdown suggestion, according to another expert, is a “knee-jerk idea” that ignores what’s really needed: focused year-long measures. “It is a knee-jerk reaction, if it occurs. Once the lockdown is lifted, those sources of pollution will return once again and you are only looking at an extreme and temporary solution. What we need is action throughout the year,” he said, asking not to be named.

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The ban on construction activity in the Capital, according to Thaneshwar Adigaur, secretary of the Delhi Asangathit Nirman Mazdoor Union, has already caused uncertainty in the sector, and workers may return to their villages, as they did when the COVID-19 lockdown was imposed last year.

Inamul Haq, a private labour contractor in Delhi, told Hindustan Times, “Workers are worried that the ban on construction activity will be extended as the air pollution situation is unlikely to improve. In the past too, the ban has been extended. It was after great difficulty I managed to get workers back from Bihar, West Bengal etc. Now, I don’t know how long this will continue.”

If the ban is extended, Haq says he may consider sending the labourers to other cities.

Traders are against the idea too, “We hope there is no lockdown now, as it will hugely impact businesses. It is only recently that the rush is back in the markets and sales have picked up. A lockdown now will break the continuity. During the pandemic, traders have suffered a lot,” said Atul Bhargava, president of the New Delhi Traders Association in Connaught Place