India’s fight against COVID-19 was going great until last month, when the COVID cases across the country saw a steep rise. But, what led to the sharp increase in the numbers? There is no solid evidence but top scientists say that different mutant strains, huge number of susceptible population made vulnerable by public events like election rallies and the lowering of guard are mainly to be blamed.

The country witnessed highest daily case tally crossing 1.5 lakh mark on Sunday taking the total cases to 1.33 crores. Many say that the second wave going on right now is much dangerous than the peak from last year. In a first, Delhi reported more than 10,000 cases. Active cases also breached 11 lakh mark for the first time since the pandemic started. 

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But, there are no clear answers on the latest rise in COVID cases across the country. Virologists Shahid Jameel and T Jacob John said that not following the COVID guidelines, including a sluggish vaccination drive due to unawareness are responsible. Jameel told PTI that, the interplay of mutants and vaccination drive will decide India and the world’s fate over the next few months.

Ashoka University’s director of Biosciences said, “The intensity of the surge also suggests that there were a huge number of susceptible people after the first wave,” reported PTI.

The Indian government also warned that the coming month will be critical and people’s active help in controlling the second wave will be essential.

Jameel further added, “Everything opening up to pre-Covid levels and behaviour that was no longer risk-averse exposed the susceptible population in a big way. A new factor is emerging mutants — both imported and homegrown,” according to media reports. 

John, top virologist also said that lowering of guard by the central government followed by all the states, political parties, religious groups and the public was primarily responsible. He gave an example that schools and colleges opened without vaccinating the staff, explains where the second wave is coming from.

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The renowned virologist added, “Wherever infection was rising, stricter imposition of discipline should have been taken but with the elections ahead, no leader wanted that. Elections during pandemic had to be carefully planned.”

Looking at the other reasons, scientists agreed that variants are the main cause for the second wave and its too late to look for mutants. The speed of spread is faster in the second wave because of variants and partly lowering the guard, John said. 

In India, variants first identified in the UK, South Africa and Brazil have been found in states like Maharashtra, Punjab and other states where surge was witnessed lately.  

India started very slow vaccine rollout in January third week, Jameel added that there was “poor communication” by government officials to the people who were vaccinated as they were to continue with precautions like masks and social distancing but that did not happen. 

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He added that, “Now we are on a very fast rising curve with only 0.7 per cent Indians having received both doses and only about 5 per cent having received one dose. That is too low to make an impact,” reports PTI.

The renowned virologist added that, vaccines should be made available for everyone above the age of 18 in states recording surge whereas the same rule of 45 plus should follow in states not experiencing rise. 

Noting that supply may be an issue, Jameel said India has the capacity to inoculate with 10 million doses of Covishield vaccine per month and three million Covaxin doses per month.

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In a recent study, scientists, including those from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, predicted that the ongoing second-wave could peak by mid-April, following which the infections may see a steep decline by the end of May.