You have landed the #3 pick in Fantasy Football. Pretty good. Now let’s make it count!
Round 1 Pick 3:
Jonathan Taylor (Yahoo Average Draft Position (ADP) 1.1): Someone left Jonathan Taylor for you here by not picking him at #1 or #2? Great! Pick him here. The best combination of risk and reward.
Christian McCaffery (Yahoo ADP 4.9): Christian McCaffery is a tough pick to make in the top 3 positions as he carries injury risk. After all, he’s only played 10 games in the last 2 seasons. But the potential reward is there. In 2019, his last full season, he finished first in fantasy points per game, beating the second place finisher by a full 7 points. In the injury plagued 2020 and 2021 seasons, he still provided robust production in fantasy points per game whenever he played. The only issue is that McCaffery has not been able to stay on the field due to injuries. If that changes this year, McCaffery is one of very few players who does not need an injury in front of him to realise his league winning upside.
Austin Ekeler (Yahoo ADP 3.8): Austin Ekeler finished 2nd in fantasy points and 3rd in fantasy points per game at the Running Back (RB) position last year. He’s had durability concerns because of his size (5-10, 200 pounds), but his role in the LA offense is secure. LA let go of Melvin Gordon and Justin Jackson the past few years due to confidence in Ekeler. And he’s repaid that faith by becoming one of the premier scoring and receiving backs in the NFL. Draft him here with confidence.
Cooper Kupp (Yahoo ADP 3.8): Cooper Kupp finished as the top Wide Receiver (WR) last year, more than three fantasy points per game clear of the second place finisher. He carried many teams to a championship last year after the arrival of quarterback (QB) Matthew Stafford in LA. He led the league in almost every major WR statistical category. There are some experts who are a little worried about the elbow injury Stafford seems to have picked up this offseason. We’re not. Draft him if you want to pick a WR in the first round.
Justin Jefferson (Yahoo ADP 6.4): Justin Jefferson finished second in receiving yards last year, but was fifth in fantasy points per game because of his lower touchdown (TD) rate compared to other top producers at the WR position. Expect some positive regression in TDs for Jefferson this year. Also, he has a new coach in Kevin O’Connell who seems determined to make the Vikings more pass heavy like the LA Rams, the team from which the coach was acquired this year. If O’Connell can do the same for Jefferson what he did for Kupp last year, Jefferson could finish as the top WR in fantasy, which would be a great outcome for his drafters.
Round 2 Pick 22:
Alvin Kamara (Yahoo ADP: 22.2): Alvin Kamara finished #5 in fantasy points per game in 2021 and #1 in 2020. If he’s on the field, he will produce. He does so by dominating high value RB touches – in the red zone and in receiving. The only concern for Kamara this year will be whether he gets suspended as a fallout of a violent confrontation during last pro bowl weekend. By all accounts, it appears that suspension is unlikely in 2022. Draft him here with confidence.
Deebo Samuel (Yahoo ADP: 20.2): Deebo Samuel was a revelation last year, yielding more than 18 half ppr points to finish as the overall WR3. While he might have a slight downgrade at QB this year depending on how you feel about Trey Lance vs Jimmy Garropolo, nothing else has changed in Deebo’s situation this year. He is still in an up tempo Kyle Shanahan offense. He just inked a big extension as well, which shows the 49ers’ long term commitment to him.
Saquon Barkeley (Yahoo ADP: 23.1): Sure, Saquon carries way too much risk to draft in the first round. But in the latter part of the second? Give me some Saquon! The Giants have made improvements in their offensive line and their new head coach was the coordinator for the explosive Bills offense from 2021. Draft him here and hope to goodness that he doesn’t pick up yet another freak injury.
Mark Andrews (Yahoo ADP: 24.5): Mark Andrews finished as tight end #1 (TE1) last year, a whole fantasy point per game ahead of Kelce, who is also 32 to Andrews’ 26. Kelce is going almost a round earlier than Andrews. Draft Andrews if you get him here, with confidence. TE options after this point have a significant drop off.
Other targets:
Josh Allen (Yahoo ADP 20.4), Javonte Williams (Yahoo ADP 22.9), Leonard Fournette (Yahoo ADP: 20)
Round 3 Pick 27:
Mark Andrews (Yahoo ADP: 24.5): You got Mark Andrews this late? Get him. Kaching!
AJ Brown (Yahoo ADP 34): AJ Brown is no longer playing in Tennessee this year, and is now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. Normally players changing teams is a cause for concern, and AJ’s ADP has dropped as a result. But he’s now playing in a more up tempo offense and has DeVonta Smith playing in the same team, which should reduce the defensive pressure on him. Jalen Hurts, with his dual threat ability, should also help resolve the double teams AJ constantly saw in Tennessee. If he stays healthy, we’re predicting a top 5-10 finish for AJ at WR, which would be great result at this spot.
Keenan Allen (Yahoo ADP 30.2): Keenan Allen is 30, but he’s still the alpha in the Chargers’ offense. He still has Justin Herbert, who finally came of age last season, throwing to him. And he will produce another WR1 season this year, just as he did last year. He finished as WR11 last season, WR14 the season before and WR8 the season before that. He is not as flashy as some of the other picks in this list, but will produce, as he does every year.
Other targets:
James Conner (Yahoo ADP 31.9), Tee Higgins (Yahoo ADP 30.3)
Round 4 Pick 46:
Diontae Johnson (Yahoo ADP: 47.2): Diontae Johnson will either have rookie Kenny Pickett or a picked-from-the-recycle-bin Mitch Trubisky throwing to him this season. But these are comparable options to a washed up Ben Roethlisberger from last year. If he finishes anywhere close to where he did last season (WR8), he will have provided solid value for his ADP
Mike Williams (Yahoo ADP 49.4): After a hot start last year, Mike Williams was slowed down by niggles and cooled down considerably towards the end of the season. He still finished as WR15 in fantasy points per game. Keenan Allen will get his share of targets, but this offense has shown the ability to support two elite WRs. Expect him to deliver decent value at this ADP.
Terry McLaurin (Yahoo ADP: 44.1): “Scary” Terry McLaurin is one of the best at contested catches in the NFL due to his speed and large frame. He’s been stymied by poor QB play and niggles that have limited his effectiveness to this point in his career. His QB this year is going to be Carson Wentz, the best he’s had in his career. If he has health, he should easily finish as a high end WR2, which will be good production from this spot in the draft.
Other targets:
Travis Etienne (Yahoo ADP 51.4), JK Dobbins (Yahoo ADP 56.1)
Round 5 Pick 51:
Diontae Johnson (Yahoo ADP: 47.2), Mike Williams (Yahoo ADP 49.4), Terry McLaurin (Yahoo ADP: 44.1). These are excellent choices if they fall to you here. Don’t think too much and grab them if they are.
Courtland Sutton (Yahoo ADP 53.3): Courtland Sutton has become a darling of fantasy drafters this season, for good reason. The Denver Broncos have dramatically upgraded the QB who will be throwing to him this year, from a combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock to superstar Russell Wilson. This should result in a high end WR2. season for Sutton, barring injuries. He’s a good pickup at this spot.
Other targets:
JK Dobbins (Yahoo ADP 56.1), DK Metcalf (Yahoo ADP 55)
Round 6 Pick 70:
Brandin Cooks (Yahoo ADP 74.2): Brandin Cooks’ finishes in half ppr over the last two years are WR16 (2021) and WR15 (2020). With no fuss, he keeps putting up strong fantasy seasons year after year. As usual, he’s expected to clear 1000 yards receiving this year. Do yourself a favor and grab him here if still available.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Yahoo ADP 72.7): On paper it would appear that the Kansas City Chiefs would like to take some of the RB workload away from Edwards-Helaire and give it to new addition Ronald Jones. This is reflected in Edwards-Helaire’s drop in ADP this year. But Ronald Jones is not a real upgrade over Damien “the mentor” Williams who was Edwards-Helaire’s teammate last year. We’re betting that Edwards-Helaire, on the basis of being the starting RB for the juggernaut Kansas City Chiefs is able to eke out an RB2 finish this year, which is plenty of value at this ADP.
Marquise Brown (Yahoo ADP 74.8): Marquise “Hollywood” Brown takes his show from Baltimore to Arizona this season. Unlike Baltimore, the Arizona Cardinals team throws the ball a lot more. In addition, Brown is going to be the focal point of this offense for at least the first 6 games of the 2022 season due to DeAndre Hopkins’ suspension. Even when Hopkins returns, there is plenty of value in picking Brown due to the up tempo nature of the Cardinals’ offense. Pick him here with confidence.
Other targets:
Gabriel Davis (Yahoo ADP 73.7), Damien Harris (Yahoo ADP 66.8), Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9)
Round 7 Pick 75:
Brandin Cooks (Yahoo ADP 74.2), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Yahoo ADP 72.7), Marquise Brown (Yahoo ADP 74.8): Obvious great values if available
Gabriel Davis (Yahoo ADP 73.7): Gabriel Davis has stud Josh Allen throwing him the ball, and Stephon Diggs on the other side of the field to draw away defensive attention. This means that he should continue to build on his strong finish to the 2021 season and build a WR2 season this year. If he does that, its great value at this ADP.
Other targets:
Amari Cooper (Yahoo ADP 76.7), Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9)
Round 8 Pick 94:
Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9): Darnell Mooney is a steal at this spot. He’s the focal point of the Chicago offense this year after the team let Allen Robinson walk away in free agency. He finished at WR24 in the last 6 weeks of last year and should build on that this year given his role and ability. Expect him to easily finish as a WR2 which is great production from this spot in the draft.
Tony Pollard (Yahoo ADP 94): Tony Pollard was RB28 playing behind an uninspiring Ezekiel Elliott last year. Elliott’s role is secure, so expect a similar year from Pollard, which is pretty good value at this ADP. If Elliott gets injured though, that’s when this becomes super interesting. Pollard would instantly transform to an RB1 for however long Elliott is out, which could win you your league. Pick him up here if looking for that upside.
Rhamondre Stevenson (Yahoo ADP 96.9): Rhamondre Stevenson spent some time in the Bill Belichick doghouse to start last year, but finished strong. He was the RB22 weeks 9 through 17. Now James White has retired, in effect bequeathing his 3rd down role to Stevenson. This should return low end RB2 or high end RB3 production on its own. But if Damien Harris, who plays with an aggressive style often associated with injuries goes down, Rhamondre will transform into an RB1. This is a good pickup, especially for drafters who did not prioritise RBs enough earlier in the draft.
Other targets:
Trey Lance (Yahoo ADP 106.7), Hunter Renfrow (Yahoo ADP 97.2), Elijah Moore (Yahoo ADP 98.6)
Round 9 Pick 99:
Darnell Mooney (Yahoo ADP 94.9), Rhamondre Stevenson (Yahoo ADP 96.9), Tony Pollard (Yahoo ADP 94): If you get any of them here, go for it.
Trey Lance (Yahoo ADP 106.7): Trey Lance started just two games for San Francisco last year, but he averaged 60 rushing yards across those contests. Expect more of the same this year as he becomes the full time starter for the San Francisco 49’ers, who have a stated plan to trade or release 2021 starter Jimmy Garropolo. This should open up plenty of opportunities for Lance’s drafters this year. The ceiling is Lamar Jackson’s 2019 season, where he finished more than 6 points clear of the second place finisher at QB. If Lance comes anywhere close to that level of production at this spot, you will have a leg up on securing a fantasy title.
Other targets:
Hunter Renfrow (Yahoo ADP 97.2), Kenneth Walker (Yahoo ADP 102.6)
Round 10 (Pick 118):
Drake London (Yahoo ADP 121.5): Barring injury, Drake London will be a star in this league and a top tier WR in the next 2-3 years. Will he be able to realise that potential in his rookie season? The opportunity exists. He has only TE Kyle Pitts for target competition in Atlanta this year. The Atlanta Falcons invested plenty of draft capital in London, drafting him at #8 and making him the first WR taken off the board. There’s upside galore with London.
Christian Kirk (Yahoo ADP 122.3): Christian Kirk finished as WR24 last year, playing for the Cardinals. DeAndre Hopkins was the alpha of that offense. This year, he plays for a new team – the Jacksonville Jaguars. While the Jaguars have sophomore QB Trevor Lawrence who has still not fully found his feet in the NFL after being selected #1 overall in the draft last year, Kirk figures to be the focal point in the receiving game. This should bring him at least close to his production last year, which would be a great return at this ADP. Prioritise Kirk here if in need of more depth at WR
Robert Woods (Yahoo ADP 124.4): Robert Woods has been a consistent performer at WR over the last few years, generally finishing at WR2 or better. He had a major injury last year, a torn ACL. While he should have fully recovered by now, he now plays for a new team, the Tennessee Titans, who are known for a heavy run based offense. All of this is baked into his current ADP. Also, while the overall targets might be fewer in Tennessee, so is the competition. He only has rookie Treylon Burks to contend with here. All of this means that while you shouldn’t expect WR1 or even WR2 production consistently, he should comfortably outperform his ADP and give your team depth at the position for injuries and bye weeks.
Other targets:
Michael Carter (Yahoo ADP 123.5), Darrell Henderson (Yahoo ADP 124.5), Alexander Mattinson (Yahoo ADP 125), Julio Jones (Yahoo ADP 124.1)
Targets for Round 11 and later:
Chris Olave (Yahoo ADP 126.8), Kadarious Toney (Yahoo ADP 128), Sony Michel (Yahoo ADP 128.6), Garett Wilson (Yahoo ADP 129.1), Isiah Spiller (Yahoo ADP 130.6)
