California‘s next governor could be a Black conservative who
would erase state vaccine and mask mandates, is critical of gun control,
disputes the notion of systemic racism in America and opposes the minimum wage
because he says it tramples the free market.

The rapid
ascent of Republican Larry Elder in the September 14 recall election that could
remove Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is a striking turn in a state regarded as a
Democratic fortress and national showcase for liberal policies on climate
change, immigration and health care.

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Elder is a
talk radio host who Newsom identifies as his biggest threat in an election
widely acknowledged as tight. Elder is promising to reverse California’s
progressive drift that he blames for an unrelenting homeless crisis, high
taxes, spiking crime rates and government creep into people’s lives and
livelihoods — from “anti-science” coronavirus mandates to regulations
he says slow-walk housing construction.

There is a
saying that the future happens first in California, and Elder’s potentially
historic victory could have broad implications, coming on the threshold of 2022
elections that will decide control of Congress.

An Elder
win would also trigger a power struggle with Sacramento’s Democratic state
legislative majority over everything from government appointments to how to
spend billions of taxpayer dollars.

In
California “young families are leaving, the taxes are going up on gasoline
and this governor is either incompetent or indifferent,” says Elder, who
would become the first Black governor of the nation’s most populous state.
“He’s got to go.”

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In another
year, the charismatic Elder’s candidacy in heavily Democratic California might
be a footnote — the GOP hasn’t won a statewide race since 2006 and Democratic
voters outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1. Former President Donald Trump
lost the state to Joe Biden last year by more than 5 million votes.

But the
unusual math that underlies the rare, late-summer recall  election could upend the expected.

For years,
Republicans have envisioned that a confluence of crises might result in a
pendulum swing in leadership in a state that was home to — and voted for —
Republican Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan.

Mail-in
ballots went out in mid-August. They are being returned at a time when COVID
again is spiking and many voters are angry and looking for someone to blame.

The recall
was driven by weariness over Newsom’s whipsaw pandemic rules that closed
businesses and schools, but it’s buttressed by grievances that range from
frustration with sprawling homeless encampments to soaring housing costs.

The GOP’s
chances rest in the atypical rules of the recall election.

There are
two questions on the ballot: First, should Newsom be removed, yes or no? If a
majority agrees to oust him, his successor is whoever gets the most votes on
the second question. With 46 candidates, the winner could get 25% or less.

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It’s a
rare opportunity for the GOP in a state where Democrats hold every statewide
office and dominate the Legislature and congressional delegation. Republicans
account for only 24% of registered voters, but the dynamics of the recall have
allowed Elder and other conservative candidates to target their campaigns at
right-leaning voters who could provide a sufficient winning edge.

Elder
quickly overshadowed a field of GOP rivals that include businessman John Cox,
state Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer and
former Olympian and reality TV personality Caitlyn Jenner.

Newsom was
successful in keeping prominent Democrats off the ballot, though YouTube
personality Kevin Paffrath has emerged as a potential contender within Newsom’s
party.

At 69, Elder
is a latecomer as a first-time candidate and he’s far from a household name.
However, he’s been a celebrity within conservative circles for years through
his provocative radio show that for many stations is part of lineup of
conservative voices that includes Elder’s mentor, Dennis Prager. Elder has a
star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and counts nearly 2 million followers on
social media.

The
self-styled “Sage of South Central” –- a reference to the rough Los
Angeles neighborhood where he grew up — is taut with energy that belies his
age. When arguing points, he can talk with the rapid-fire certitude of the
lawyer that he is — Elder is a 1977 graduate of the University of Michigan Law
School, and received an undergraduate degree from Brown University.

Arguably
Elder’s biggest headline since entering the race July 12 was an unwelcome one –
a former fiancee, Alexandra Datig, alleged he was emotionally abusive and
showed her a gun during an argument in 2015, a claim Elder denies.

However,
the allegations do not appear to have slowed his campaign’s trajectory. He
rolled out endorsements last week that included GOP national Committeeman Shawn
Steel and former Democratic state Senate leader Gloria Romero, who favors
charter schools, as does Elder.

His
political views reflect a libertarian mindset that would elicit cringes among
progressive voters — he believes government has grown too big, too intrusive,
too costly.

He stands
opposed to what he sees as government overreach, hence his opposition to
sweeping mask mandates and the minimum wage. He’s been critical of Roe v. Wade,
the landmark 1973 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that legalized abortion nationwide,
arguing that such restrictions should be left to states.

To Elder,
climate change is real but he also warns against a “war on oil and
gas” and shifting too quickly into a renewable-energy economy, which he
says would cost jobs and fail to keep the lights on.

His views
on race often have put him at odds with other Blacks. Elder is critical of the
Black Lives Matter movement, and he has called racial quotas a “a crutch
and a cop-out.” He opposes efforts to “defund” police. In a 1995
interview with The Orange County Register he said, “We have to stop
bitching and moaning and whining and crying and blaming the white man for
everything.”

Black
Democratic leaders recently held an event to denounce his views on race.

“He
may look like us, he may talk like us, but he is not one of us,” said
Malia Cohen, a member of the California State Board of Equalization, which
oversees collection of state taxes.

The
embattled Newsom has called Elder “more extreme than Trump in many
respects.”

From the
start, Democrats have sought to link the recall effort to the former president,
who is widely unpopular in the state outside his conservative base.

Elder
rejects the notion that he’s a mirror image of Trump, noting that he’s broken
with him on trade — Elder disagreed with tariffs and other restrictions imposed
by the former president — and also thought Trump erred by cutting Afghanistan
troop levels.

Newsom’s
steady focus on Elder isn’t a surprise, says Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin.
It allowed the governor to recast the race from a referendum on his own tenure
by “putting a face on the alternative.”

“Without
a clear alternative, it was hard for Gavin and the Democrats to say, ‘Oppose
the recall,’ because it’s such an amorphous thing,” Tulchin said.
“Now, he can hold up Elder to define the race on partisan terms.”

With
mail-in ballots already being returned, the contest remains heavy with
unknowns, including who will bother to vote in an election scheduled in what is
normally an off-election year.

Elder
might benefit from little-noticed wrinkles in state voting patterns. California
has a liberal tilt, but not always.

Voters in
2020 rejected an organized labor-backed attempt to partially dismantle the
state’s decades-old cap on property taxes, as well as reinstate affirmative
action, while Republicans ousted Democrats in four U.S. House seats.

Elder says
he considers the race a longshot, given Newsom’s ability to raise unlimited
funds. But he believes he’s the only Republican likely to deliver a stunning
surprise next month.

“I
don’t think anybody can win except for me,” he says.