Subtropical Storm Nicole is developing northeast of the Bahamas.
It will be on the cusp of a Subtropical Storm that will linger through the end of the week by US Midterm Election Day. Given its size, it might cause circumstances such to those that Ian had in Northeast Florida.
Although a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form during the next day or two, there is now a 90% chance of its development in the following 5 days.
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Nicole will move towards Florida’s east coast in a northwesterly direction. Models are still split on riding up the Southeast coast or extending a sharp hook out to the Atlantic.
The probable effects will start Thursday and Friday evenings and then end. Flooding along the coast is an issue. The likelihood of rain is between 1-3″ with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Near the seaside, both of these effects would be most noticeable. Tornadoes that occur sporadically pose a very low threat. The last track would determine this. The effects would be lessened if this storm were to move deeper into the Atlantic.
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The exact strength of the low is unknown, but early indications point to a tropical storm moving into central or southern Florida. Subtropical Storm Nicole’s centre was near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 68.5 West as of 5 a.m. Monday. Nicole is travelling north-northwest at about 14 mph (22 km/h). Later Monday, a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected.
Tuesday through early Thursday, a westward or west-southwestward motion is predicted. Nicole’s centre will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night, according to the forecast track. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 miles per hour (75 kilometres per hour), with higher gusts.
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Nicole is expected to gradually strengthen over the next few days, and it could be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday or Wednesday night as it moves near the northwestern Bahamas. Winds of 40 mph or higher extend up to 275 miles (445 km) east of the centre. 1004 mb is the estimated minimum central pressure (29.65 inches).
Winds will pick up to 25-30 mph as the system approaches Florida’s east coast Tuesday night.
Winds will reach 40 mph on Wednesday, with some of the strongest gusts occurring overnight into Thursday morning as the low passes through south Florida.
Strong northerly winds may also slow or prevent the St. Johns River’s decline from previous rain from Hurricane Ian in areas further inland.
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Next Week’s Implications
Breakers in the surf zone: 10ft waves
Rip currents are extremely dangerous.
Seas off the coast: 13-16 feet Wednesday
Beach erosion for four days in a row
Coastal flooding during a full moon (especially during high tides)
Storms and scattered showers
Winds gusting to 30 mph Tuesday evening
Wind gusts of over 40 mph Wednesday through Thursday morning