Arizona was a key Republican stronghold for decades, until it was no more. 

Ahead of the 2020 presidential elections in the United States, Arizona has emerged as a major swing state, along with a few others, which will decide the fate of Donald Trump at the White House for four more years. Though the Republicans under Trump won at the state in 2016, the margin was pretty narrow. Meanwhile in 2020, chances of him winning are low, as democrat Joe Biden leads the polls.

What matters in Arizona

Over the years, the Arizonian electorate dynamics have changed with the growing Latino involvement in politics and Trump’s stance on the community had not fared well for him in 2016 as well. This time, too, the chances of him getting votes from the Latinos, with the talks of building the wall at the Mexican border still at play, are quite bleak. 

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On the other hand, the more liberal Californian influx is seen to be in major favour of Joe Biden and the Democrats. The well-read, younger and more politically involved white voters seem to view Trump in a not-so-good manner, and lean towards the blue campaign.

While the older, more conservative voting population were in favour of the red campaign four years ago, Trump’s denigration of late senator John McCain have hurt their emotions too, an AFP report says. McCain’s long representation of Arizona, and his continued impact on the state’s politics have a role to play during the November 3 elections, with his widow Cindy McCain endorsing Biden.

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The President’s handling of COVID-19 and the subsequent economic conditions will also play a major part while voters elect a leader in Arizona, an Al Jazeera report says. While the locals believe that Trump, with the background of being a businessman, can handle the economy well, they also blame him for the economic downturn that has emerged as a result of COVID-19. Joe Biden gets higher points in this aspect, according to Al Jazeera.

As per an AFP report that quoted RealClearPolitics (RCP), Trump trails by 4.0 points in Arizona, which makes up for 11 seats in the US Electoral College.