China is unwavering in its zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19, despite the delta variant’s continued penetration into its formidable defences. In an effort to contain the virus, officials are taking increasingly aggressive measures, ranging from internal travel restrictions and sudden lockdowns to mass testing of millions. 

Despite this, more parts of the country are dealing with outbreaks than ever before since the deadly pathogen first appeared in Wuhan in 2019. Hundreds of locally transmitted infections have been discovered in roughly two-thirds of the country’s provinces.

How long can the vast nation keep its strategy as the rest of the world adjusts to COVID, and what factors might force the country to re-open?

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The Health Experts

“My personal estimate is China won’t reopen for another year,” Chen Zhengming, an epidemiology professor at the University of Oxford, told a news agency. 

He noted that the country’s success in suppressing flare-ups has won public approval, while areas where the virus is considered endemic are seeing “what the government fears — once you relax, cases surge.”

“China’s vaccination rate is very high, but most are vaccinated with an inactivated shot” that is less effective than an mRNA inoculation. “Without adequate coverage of boosters and a significant change in outbreaks elsewhere, I think the chance of China reopening and giving up COVID Zero is small,” he said. Otherwise, the Communist Party is “not going to change unless it gets to a situation where they can’t control [the virus] any more.”

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One way out of COVID Zero may be to “pick a few places to start experimenting with controllable risks,” he said. Testing what happens once extreme measures are abandoned “will give people tremendous confidence,” he said.

According to Jason Wang, director of Stanford University’s Center for Policy, Outcomes and Prevention, another reason to postpone reopening is the health system. “It’s already difficult to get care in many cities,” he said. “A little bit of a surge could just really overwhelm hospital capacity and that could lead to social unrest.”

“It’s difficult to predict how long” COVID Zero will last, he added. “It could last a long time.”

The Political Observers

“It would be a major shock if the party were to relent ahead of the Winter Olympics and next year’s 20th party congress,” said George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. “China sees its COVID record as a badge of honor,” and a change in strategy would be seen in Beijing as an embarrassment.

“It’s hard to see China running the risk of relaxation before their vaccines have improved,” Magnus added. “I can’t see any circumstances influencing the decision to persist with zero COVID and keep foreign visitors largely out.”

The Market Watchers

Because delta is transmissible, “China’s zero-tolerance approach may become quite difficult, especially if other nations employ a different ‘living with COVID-19’ strategy,” said Jessica Tea, an investment specialist at BNP Paribas Asset Management Asia Ltd.

The approach “could delay a full recovery of some services consumption, especially in hospitality sectors,” she added.

The Economists

China’s approach “may cap the upside potential of the economy, especially for consumption and the service sector,” said Shuang Ding, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd. — but it also curbs “the downside from an uncontrolled outbreak.” He expects the country to stand true to its zero tolerance policy “possibly until the conclusion of the NPC [National People’s Congress] meetings in March.”

After that, China may reconsider “based on the experience of other countries,” he said. “Especially those that have reached herd immunity vaccination rates and decided to treat COVID as endemic.”