There is growing concern about what the American midterm elections on Tuesday may imply for Ukraine and American support for the nation amid worries that a Republican victory will erode support for Kyiv.
Officials and parliamentarians in Ukraine are closely examining the poll results and analysing what their foreign colleagues have to say.
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“We hope that for our sake that we don’t become a victim to the partisan debate that’s unfolding right now in the U.S. That’s the fear, because we are very much seriously dependent on not only American support, but also on the U.S. leadership in terms of keeping up the common effort of other nations,” Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a former Ukrainian deputy prime minister and now opposition lawmaker, said.
There wouldn’t be a “blank check” for Ukraine if the Republicans win back control of the House, according to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who might take over as speaker if they do.
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The Biden administration has made an effort to allay doubts about the government’s resolve to aid Ukraine in its struggle against the invasion of Russian President Vladimir Putin, but populist Republican sentiment in Congress is pushing for less support for Kyiv and more focus on domestic issues in the United States.
According to Ben Judah, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank based in Washington DC, “a lot of world leaders watching these results nervously with a sense of resignation.”
He also stated that there is a sense that Congress is losing its desire to write big checks for Ukraine.
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“On both the further right and the further left there are questions being asked: ‘When’s this going to end?’, ‘How much money are we spending there?’ And there are going to be nerves in Kyiv that the Republican-dominated Congress – if that’s what comes out of the midterms – is going to try and kick up a fuss with the White House about the size of those cheques,” Judah said.
“It’s not going to stop them being sent, but friction is inserted here,” Judah added.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin is certain that the United States would continue to provide military and financial support to his nation after the midterm elections.
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“I don’t see a critical number of people among the Republicans calling for cuts in aid,” he said. “At the same time, Klimkin acknowledged that the procedure for congressional consideration of Ukraine aid may become more complex.”
Beyond the Ukrainian crisis, according to Klimkin, the U.S. position on Ukraine is “critical” for Washington — “not only with respect to Russia, but also to how the U.S. will be perceived by China.”
The United States has committed over €52 billion in total to military, financial, and humanitarian help, whereas the EU countries and institutions have contributed just over €29 billion, according to the Kiel Institute of the World Economy.
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“The U.S. is now committing nearly twice as much as all EU countries and institutions combined. This is a meager showing for the bigger European countries, especially since many of their pledges are arriving in Ukraine with long delays,” the head of the team compiling the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine support tracker, Christoph Trebesch said.