Surging COVID cases in metro cities indicator of Indias 3rd wave? Explained

The government said that there are now incontrovertible indicators that India has reached the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the next few days, the current rise in cases is unlikely to diminish or change course, the centre stated.

However, it is too early to speculate on the magnitude or quality of this upsurge. It doesn’t have to be similar to the country’s first two waves or follow the same paths as other European or American countries.

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South Africa is on a totally different path, as is Germany, at least for the time being. Cases appear to be stabilising in both of these countries, albeit they are not yet gone, and part of the problem could be related to inaccurate data reporting during the Christmas holiday.

Not shockingly, the main cities — Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Kolkata, Chennai, and others — are seeing the largest increases in cases. This is due not just to their enormous and dense populations, but also to the fact that they receive the greatest number of visiting international visitors. 

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The omicron variety, which is causing the present outbreak, would first circulate in these populations before spreading to the rest of the country. These are also the locations where testing infrastructure is better and more timely.

According to the newest analysis by a group of academics led by Sitabhra Sinha at the Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences, the reproduction number or R, an indicator of how quickly a disease spreads in the population, has crossed 1 in all of these megacities. 

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An R-value of one, which indicates that every infected individual infects at least one person on average, is a critical threshold beyond which cases begin to rapidly climb. According to Sinha’s findings, both Delhi and Mumbai currently have R-values of above 2, meaning that one individual in each city transmits to more than two persons on average. This is a projection for a rapid increase in instances in both of these areas.

The fact that it occurred during the annual festival season, when mass gatherings are the norm, is one of the key reasons for the exceptional spike in Europe and the United States. 

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While several governments have imposed limitations to curb the surge, they have been wary of jeopardising Christmas or New Year celebrations or gatherings. There is now no such requirement in India, and if people behave responsibly and practise COVID-appropriate behaviour, the country would be able to navigate this wave with minimal economic disruption.