RBI to delay first repo rate hike for at least four months: Report

The Reserve Bank of India will postpone its first rate hike for at least four months according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the central bank must now start worrying about inflation.

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So far this year, inflation has remained over the RBI’s 6% upper barrier, raising doubts about the central bank’s present policy of keeping rates low to boost growth, even as several central banks are already hiking borrowing costs in this cycle.

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The RBI did not deliver what was thought to be a slight increase in the reverse repo rate at its previous policy meeting in February, setting things up for raising the repo rate, the key policy tool, from 4.0%, where it has stood for nearly two years.

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All but six of 50 respondents polled on March 29-April 5 forecast no repo rate change on Friday. Thirty-two expected rates to still be unchanged by end-June.

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Twenty-five respondents expect the repo rate to rise by 25 basis points to 4.25% in the third quarter, with 15 expecting rates to rise to 4.50% or higher. The Reserve Bank of India meets to decide on policy in early August and late September, implying that a rate hike is at least four months away.

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A February poll found that 28 of 41 respondents predicted at least one rate rise by the end of June.

While the RBI’s dovish attitude reflects that of its Asian counterparts, it lags well behind major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in dealing with the recent increase in global inflation.

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When asked whether the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee should change its priority from growth to inflation, 23 of 37 respondents replied yes, while the remaining 14 said no.

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Inflation was predicted to peak at 6.1% in the last quarter, but it is expected to continue over the RBI’s medium-term objective of 4.0% until at least 2024. All median inflation projections were higher than in a prior macroeconomic poll conducted in January.

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Economic growth, on the other hand, has been reduced from 9.2% to 8.7% for the previous fiscal year and 7.5% for the current one. This follows a period of subpar growth in the fourth quarter of 2021.