Explained: Why Israel is mediating between Russia, Ukraine

With his surprise visit to Moscow on
Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is assuming the unlikely role
of mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

Also Read: Vladimir Putin meet Israel PM Naftali Bennett amid Ukraine crisis: Report

Bennett, who has helmed the country for
less than a year and is largely untested on the world stage, positioned Israel
in an uncomfortable middle ground between Russia and Ukraine in the lead up to
the war, creating a launching pad from which to emerge as a player in
diplomatic efforts.

But wading into international mediation in
the midst of war could be a minefield for Israel. It relies on its ties with
the Kremlin for security coordination in Syria, and with Moscow sitting at the
negotiating table with Iran over its nuclear programme, Israel cannot afford to
anger President Vladimir Putin. What’s more, it’s unclear whether the efforts,
said to have been coordinated with the US, will bear fruit.

Also Read: Pianist plays ‘What a Wonderful World’ as civilians flee war-hit Ukraine

Here is a look at the unexpected new player
in the Ukraine crisis:

Bennett’s
bet

Bennett came to power last year as part of
a pact by eight ideologically disparate parties bent on ousting former Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

A religious Jew who made millions in the
country’s hi-tech sector, Bennett has served in various Cabinet positions in
the past but lacks the charisma and the international experience of his
predecessor. Mediating between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and
Putin, a former KGB agent, will test him like never before.

Opponents at home see Bennett’s rule as
illegitimate because they disapprove of the way he was brought to power and
public opinion has in recent months not been in his favour. Additional
criticism mounted in the lead-up to Russia’s war with Ukraine over Bennett’s
reticence to censure Russia — breaking with Israel’s allies in the West who
were stepping up sanctions.

Also Read: Russia-Ukraine war: All you need to know

While Bennett repeatedly expressed his
support for the Ukrainian people, he stopped short of condemning Russia’s
invasion.

As Western sanctions mounted, Bennett was
maintaining contact with both Putin and Zelenskyy, who reportedly asked Bennett
to begin mediating between the sides. With his visit to Moscow, he became the
only Western leader to meet the Russian president since the war erupted.

His involvement in such a high-profile,
high stakes conflict could breathe life into his political fortunes.

“Bennett has reinvented himself,” said
Esther Lopatin, a European affairs expert at Tel Aviv University. “Here’s
someone who was suffering in polls, who was facing public criticism. Turns out
he can pull rabbits out of his hat.”

Also Read: Elon Musk won’t block Russian news sources ‘unless at gunpoint’

A
diplomatic minefield

Israel is one of the few countries that has
good working relations with both Russia and Ukraine. It has delivered 100 tons
of humanitarian aid to the country and has announced it will be setting up a
field hospital there. Ukraine is also home to some 200,000 Jews, hundreds of
whom have already fled to Israel, with many more expected.

But Israel’s ties with Russia are of
strategic importance. Israel relies on Russia for security coordination in
Syria, where Russia has a military presence and where Israeli jets have
frequently struck targets said to be weapons caches destined for Israel’s
enemies.

Also Read: In Pics: Tearful Ukrainians bid adieu to loved ones at train stations

Russia is also among the powers negotiating
with Iran over its nuclear program in Vienna, where a deal is imminent. Israel
opposes the deal, saying it doesn’t adequately restrain Iran’s nuclear
activities and has discussed that opposition with Russia frequently in the
past.

If Israel’s outreach morphs into outright
mediation, Israel will have to maintain that neutral position, breaking from
the West, even if Russia’s onslaught intensifies. Any wrong move and relations
with Putin could sour. If talks fail, Bennett could appear to have been
outsmarted by Putin’s cunning and could be blamed for the conflict having
worsened.

And as one of the only Western-allied
countries that has not engaged in openly hostile rhetoric toward Moscow, Israel
will be the West’s main diplomatic link to the Kremlin, a high-pressure,
delicate position.

Also Read: Explained: A look at weapons used by Russia in war against Ukraine

Chances
for success?

Hours after returning from his trip,
Bennett told his Cabinet that it was Israel’s moral duty to step in, “even if
the chance is not great.” With that, a country that has traditionally been a
beneficiary of international mediation with the Palestinians and Arab nations
was inching toward becoming the mediator.

“There’s a feeling that there is an
opening, that no one is talking to Putin. Israel is a player who can talk to
both sides,” said Vera Michlin-Shapir, a former official at Israel’s National
Security Council and the author of “Fluid Russia,” a book about the country’s
national identity. “But what happens going forward?”

Michlin-Shapir warned that Israel doesn’t
necessarily have the diplomatic tools to properly mediate such a complex
crisis, no matter the goodwill. Efforts by France and Turkey — bigger players
internationally — failed to avert the conflict.

Also Read: Satellite images tell Ukraine story, precision triggers concerns

“On the one hand, (Bennett) has upgraded
his international standing overnight and has won a lot of political points
within Israel. On the other, he is taking a huge risk, not only for himself as
a politician but for the state of Israel and its standing in the world,”
commentator Barak Ravid wrote on the Israeli Walla News site.

“The prime minister has waded into the
Ukrainian mud without knowing entirely just how deep it is.”