Modi’s choice: Will India remain non-aligned, or pick the US over Russia?

The 2+2 dialogue between India and the US will take place, Monday, after US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, told the House foreign committee, earlier this week, that Washington shares a critical relationship with New Delhi, iterating the Joe Biden government’s desire that India move away from the “long-term history of non-alignment G77 partnership” it has with Russia. 

Ahead of the talks between Secretary of state Antony Blinken and secretary of defence Lloyd Austin and counterparts S Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki also noted President Biden’s statement about the partnership with India being the most important relationship to the US.  

Washington has largely found India’s stance regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict to be unsatisfying, though some lawmakers have admitted that it is unsurprising. The nation has abstained from voting against Russia at the United Nations, and maintained trade relations with Moscow, recently agreeing to buy oil at discounted rates, with a rupee-ruble payment system. 

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At that time, US Deputy National Security Advisor, Daleep Singh – the individual largely responsible for the sanctions on Russia – visited India. However, Psaki clarified that Singh had not warned India of sanctions for importing Russian oil. However, Washington’s message was clear that it didn’t want New Delhi to increase its energy dependence on Russia. Psaki, while noting that the war in Ukraine would be one of the core topics discussed at the talks, managed to point out that India imports more energy from the US than Moscow. 

For some time now, the US has been vying to improve relations with India, seeking to replace Moscow. However, India’s policy of non-alignment, which came into being during the Cold War, tries to maintain diplomatic relationships with all major countries. Moreover, India has had longstanding ties with Moscow, since before the fall of the Soviet Union, as acknowledged by Sherman. 

So, will India cave under the US pressure, and abandon ties with Moscow; or, will the country continue walking the proverbial diplomatic tightrope?

India’s non-alignment stance, for those who missed history class 

In September 1961, the Jawaharlal Nehru-led India along with 24 other countries and three observer nations, founded the Non-Aligned Movement. While there wasn’t much need for NAM post the Cold War, with the US emerging as the only superpower, India continued to maintain a non-aligned stance. 

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While remaining distant from the political power moves, India has sought to benefit in different sectors from major players. Despite increased self-reliance, India realized the need for continued investment from both the US and Russia for its development. 

US-India-Russia: Heading towards a menage a trois?

The Soviet Union has constantly been supportive of India, while the US has not always been a good friend. Moscow’s naval forces in the Indian Ocean took on the US which had decided to back Pakistan, and send a naval fleet to the Bay of Bengal in December 1971, amid the Indo-Pakistan war, to disrupt Indian operations. 

In the UN, the Soviet Union vetoed the many resolutions the West brought against India. The USSR also prevented UN action when India liberated Goa from the Portuguese, and prevented the internationalization of Kashmir with its solo veto. 

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After the fall of the Soviet Union, India’s warm relations with Russia continued, with Moscow, in 2008, witnessing India and the US sign the nuclear deal. Russia became India’s largest arms supplier the same year. In 2014, India under the Manmohan Singh government became the first in Asia to recognize Russia’s expansion into Crimea. 

Despite continued relations with Russia, India’s relations with the US have grown in recent times, with New Delhi relying on US defence systems. The two nations also have strong economic ties with major US companies like Facebook having one of their largest userbase in India. 

Russia and India, a tale of peaceful stability 

While the two countries have always remained close, as evidenced above, Russia and India have seen an uptick in their diplomatic relations since the signing of the “Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership” in October 2000. For India, bilateral ties with Russia form a core pillar of the nation’s foreign policy, the Ministry of External Affairs declared in a press release. 

An interesting observation: April 13, which is two days after the upcoming 2+2 Dialogue, marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and India.

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Russia has been more than eager to share its weapons and weapons technology with India, also maintaining trade, research, and cultural relations. 

However, India’s dependence on Russia’s defence technology is one of the core aspects of their relationship. By all accounts, Russia is India’s largest weapons exporter. 

Currently, India has an order for five units of the state-of-the-art S-400 Triumf air-defence system. This deal, which Austin had called sanctionable, now remains in doubt, with only one unit delivered, in December 2021 – two months before Russia sent troops into Ukraine. 

In contrast, the US has been the fourth largest weapons exporter to India in 2016–20, with France and Israel in second and third place, as per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which tracks global arms expenditure. 

The US woo 

The US now has a legitimate point after the Russian economy has been nearly crippled by the combined weight of NATO-member imposed sanctions. It has informed India that it will be hard to get spare parts from Russia now, bringing back worries about the delivery of the other four S-400 units. 

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Sherman observed, “They have increased their defence relationship with us…” while acknowledging that the US is ready to take more steps to invest in India. She said, “We have had very direct conversations with them about how we can address their very legitimate needs… I think there’s progress being made to see what we can do to be supportive to them, while, at the same time, urging them to be more forthright regarding what’s happening in Ukraine”, PTI reported. 

Along with the 2+2 talks tomorrow, President Biden will speak to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi virtually, strengthening US’ case that it wants India to move away from Moscow. 

If we offend, it is with our goodwill

India’s relations with Russia are time tested, one where two nations mutually back each other. Meanwhile, with the US, it has had a rocky past, but one of fruitful collaboration – nonetheless. 

As India continues increasing a drive towards self-reliance, popularly encapsulated by PM Modi’s call to be ‘atma nirbhar’ (self reliant), it has started building relations with the US as well, more so, because of a common enemy in the Indo-Pacific – yes, China. 

The QUAD quagmire 

India is part of the QUAD along with the US, Australia, Japan, intended to restrict China’s aggression. However, only India shares geographical boundaries with the nation.

Thus, India and the US have grown close over trying to push back against Chinese expansionist moves. 

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India could end up disrupting the QUAD if it refuses to move away from Russia despite the US pushing for it. However, for now, the QUAD has accepted India’s stance regarding Russia. 

That said, if India alienates the US, China might see an opportunity to act, which would result in border skirmishes, as India has witnessed in the past. 

Love thy neighbour: The Pakistan problem 

In an ideal world for India, China and Russia would not have had close ties. However, Beijing and Moscow have maintained firm relations even amid the Ukraine crisis. India has found common ground with China on this issue, recently. 

When it comes to Pakistan, India’s somewhat tense relations with China pose a problem. Under now-ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan, Pakistan had grown closer with China, attracting investments from Beijing. China and Pakistan’s close ties have India jittery since it might indicate Chinese backing if Pakistan decides to raise the Jammu and Kashmir issue. For now, both Prime Ministerial candidates of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif and Mahmood Qureshi, have said this issue is of paramount importance to the nation. 

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Meanwhile, the US has grown somewhat distant from Pakistan, recently having criticized Khan’s decision to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. 

Thus, India could be considering the possibility of turning to the US for backing in matters pertaining to Pakistan, but the country has historically been supported by the Soviet Union against its partition-torn neighbour. 

The Bucha caveat 

The US-India talks come on the heels of the Bucha massacre in Ukraine, where mass graves of civilians were found in a town near the capital city Kyiv after Russian forces withdrew from the area. 

India, at the UN, condemned the killings and called for an independent investigation. 

The US has seen this as hardening of intentions against Russia and will likely build on it during the upcoming talks. 

2+2 always makes a 5 

Arindam Bagchi, MEA spokesperson, told reporters “We have established economic relations with Russia. Given the current circumstances post-development in Ukraine, I think there is an effort by both sides to ensure that this economic relationship remains stable”.

He added, “It is not talking about increasing…it is about stabilising it because this (economic) relationship exists and it’s in our interest to make sure some of this economic activity continues, and we are trying to see how we can keep that stable”.

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Thus, ahead of the 2+2 talks, Bagchi has made it clear that India intends to continue its ties with Russia. Considering the mutually beneficial relationship India and the US share, not to mention, Washington’s desire to prevent a further deepening of New Delhi’s relations with Moscow, the US is likely to make peace with India’s continued non-aligned stance. 

An unlikely fan 

Just as a post-script, India’s non-aligned stance has an unlikely fan in ousted Pakistan PM Khan, who before his no-confidence vote noted how a country like India would never allow itself to be swayed by major powers.