Third COVID wave in August, peak in September, says report

A research report on COVID-19 has said that the third wave of the deadly virus is likely to hit India in August even as the country is still reeling under the impact of the debilitating second wave of the pandemic.  The research report, prepared by the SBI, says that the wave will peak in September 2021.

“Going by the current data, India can experience daily COVID-19 cases around 10,000 somewhere around the second week of July. However, the cases can start rising by the second fortnight of August with peak cases at least a month later,” SBI’s Group Chief Economic Adviser, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said in the report. The report titled “COVID-19: the race to finishing line,” was published on July 5.

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The research, based on “historical trends,” states that the global data shows on average, peak cases reached during the third wave are nearly twice the numbers in the second wave of the pandemic. The SBI report comes days after a government panel said that the third wave of COVID-19 can hit its peak between October-November.

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On ways to minimise the impact of the third wave, the report says that mass vaccination is the answer. “India has started giving more than 40 lakh vaccination doses per day as shown by 7 DMA,” the report says adding that though India has fully vaccinated 4.6% of its population, apart from 20.8% having received one dose, the rate is lower than other countries including the US, the UK, Israel, Spain, France.

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On the economic impact of the pandemic, the report says that increase in health expenditure and decline in savings may result in further increase in household debt.