United States President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have a virtual meeting, with Washington eager to discuss the war in Ukraine, but New Delhi making no specific mention of it in their announcement. 

The talks will take place ahead of the scheduled 2+2 Dialogue between Secretary of State Antony Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and their Indian counterparts S Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh. 

On Sunday, the White House said that the leaders’ talk is aimed at deepening “ties between our governments, economies, and our people”. Ukraine is expected to be one of the issues on the table, apart from talks on ending the COVID-19 pandemic and fighting the climate crisis, the statement further explained. 

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Meanwhile, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs stated “The two leaders will review ongoing bilateral cooperation and exchange views on recent developments in South Asia, the Indo-Pacific region and global issues of mutual interest”. 

Ahead of the meeting, Washington has also described a strong desire for New Delhi to end its historical non-alignment G77 partnership with Russia, and President Biden has doubled down on his desire for India to realign itself, by describing the relationship with New Delhi as the most important to the US. 

So, will Modi tackle the Ukraine issue and India’s stance regarding Russia head-on, or will the issue be skirted? 

Past is prologue

At the last call between Modi and Biden, with other QUAD leaders present, India had resisted the US’ push to put Russia-Ukraine talks on the agenda. 

After this, Biden had described India’s stance as “somewhat shaky” – a sentiment echoed across the US government – with lawmakers labelling India’s actions as “unsatisfactory” but “unsurprising”. 

The US flex 

After Washington clarified that it expects New Delhi to move away from Moscow, Biden is expected to bring up the topic in his call with Modi, forcing India to consider its position. 

Thus far, India has maintained defence relations with Russia – hardly surprising since Moscow is New Delhi’s largest weapons exporter and also shares military technology freely. 

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The two countries have also entered a new agreement for Russian oil at discounted rates, with a rupee-ruble payment system. 

However, the US might be prepared to match Russia’s offer in both cases. Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman, noted ahead of the 2+2 Dialogue and the virtual meeting, that Russia might not be able to provide service for the military technology in coming times, as its economy buckles under the cumulative weight of NATO-imposed sanctions. 

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has also noted that India imports more energy from the US than Russia. 

Where does India stand? 

In the US push for India to move away from Russia, Washington is ignoring the longstanding relations between New Delhi and Moscow, from the Soviet Union era. Or, at least, the US believes that India has outgrown the need for Russia. 

However, the nation’s non-aligned stance, which is time tested, suggests that India maintain diplomatic relations with all major players, considering both US and Russian investments would help its development. 

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The MEA recognizes bilateral relations with Russia as one of the core pillars making up India’s foreign policy. Moreover, at the United Nations India has shown Russia the same courtesy Moscow displayed in the past when it prevented the internationalization of Kashmir or stopped UN intervention when India freed Goa from the Portuguese. 

Thus far, India has abstained from voting against Russia at the UN, when it comes to the Ukraine conflict. However, the Bucha massacre elicited a response from India too, which condemned the actions and called for an independent investigation. 

The US could be looking to build on India’s slightly altered stance, to drive a wedge in its relations with Russia. 

To Russia, with love 

The Ukraine issue seems unavoidable in Biden-Modi’s virtual meeting, but the MEA has already clarified that it seeks to maintain stable economic relations with Moscow during this time, as per spokesperson Arindam Bagchi’s statement to reporters. 

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India considers bilateral trade with Russia as one of the core pillars of its foreign policy, and April 13 also marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations being established between New Delhi and Moscow. 

Modi received praise from a US lawmaker who recognized India’s role in trying to keep the peace between Washington and Moscow. It is unlikely the country, which remained non-aligned throughout the Cold War, will change its stance now when the Ukraine issue comes up in today’s meeting.