Recently%2C%20Dr.%20Abdullah%20Abdullah%2C%20who%20heads%20the%20Afghan%20Government%27s%20High%20Council%20for%20National%20Reconciliation%28%20HCNR%29%20came%20on%20a%20visit%20to%20India%20from%20October%206.%20He%26nbsp%3Bmet%20Prime%20Minister%20Modi%2C%20National%20Security%20Adviser%20Ajit%20Doval%20and%20External%20Affairs%20Minister%20S.%20Jaishankar.%20Clearly%2C%20a%20lot%20of%20importance%20has%20been%20attached%20to%20his%20visit.%20During%20their%20meeting%2C%20Prime%20Minister%20Narendra%20Modi%20assured%20him%20of%20India%u2019s%20continued%20backing%20for%20the%20peace%20process%20in%20Afghanistan.%20On%20his%20part%2C%20Abdullah%26nbsp%3Bhas%20said%20that%20India%27s%20role%20in%20establishing%20lasting%20peace%20in%20Afghanistan%20is%20vital.%20He%20also%20lauded%20India%27s%20continuous%20support%20to%20the%20government%20and%20people%20of%20Afghanistan.

There%20is%20no%20denying%20the%20fact%20that%20the%20Afghans%20have%20a%20high%20regard%20for%20India.%26nbsp%3BFor%20the%20modern%2C%20post-Taliban%20Afghanistan%2C%20India%20has%20been%20a%20steadfast%20partner%20and%20has%20supported%20it%20with%20over%20%243%20billion%20in%20development%20assistance%2C%20far%20more%20than%20it%20has%20provided%20to%20any%20other%20nation.%20The%20partnership%20is%20built%20on%20the%20specific%20needs%20and%20requirements%20worked%20out%20with%20the%20government%20of%20Afghanistan.%20India%27s%26nbsp%3Bassistance%20has%20taken%20various%20forms%20such%20as%20scholarships%20to%20students%2C%20infrastructure%20and%20transportation%20projects%2C%20medical%20teams%20to%20treat%20Afghans%2C%20and%20building%20institutional%20capacities%20at%20the%20ministry%20level.%20The%20%24290%20million%20Afghan-India%20Friendship%20Dam%2C%20the%20%2490%20million%20Afghan%20Parliament%20building%20in%20Kabul%20and%20the%20%24135%20million%20Delaram-Zaranj%20highway%20are%20just%20some%20examples%20of%20India%27s%20assistance%20to%20that%20country.%26nbsp%3B

However%2C%20there%20is%20one%20compelling%20question%20which%20makes%20one%20rather%20uneasy%3A%26nbsp%3B%3Ci%3EIs%20everything%20hunky-dory%2C%20or%20is%20India%20getting%20outflanked%20and%20outmaneuvered%20in%20Afghanistan%20by%20Pakistan%3F%20%3C/i%3EPakistan%20has%20always%20tried%20to%20create%20strategic%20depth%20for%20itself%20in%20that%20country%2C%20which%20means%20pushing%20India%20out%20completely.%20The%20Pakistan%20Foreign%20Office%20spokesman%20Mohammad%20Faisal%20had%20unambiguously%20enunciated%20his%20country%27s%20position%20in%20January%20last%20year%20when%2C%20in%20response%20to%20a%20question%2C%20he%20had%20said%26nbsp%3B%22India%20has%20no%20role%20in%20Afghanistan%22.%20A%20Pentagon%20report%20released%20in%20May%20this%20year%20affirms%20that%26nbsp%3BPakistan%20continues%20to%20focus%20on%20countering%20Indian%20influence%20in%20Afghanistan%20and%20harbours%20the%20Taliban%20and%20groups%20such%20as%20the%20Haqqani%20Network%2C%20which%20have%20the%20ability%20to%20engage%20in%20violence%20on%20Afghan%20soil.

It%20may%20be%20recalled%20that%20at%20the%20%27Howdy%20Modi%27%20rally%20in%20Houston%20on%20September%2022%2C%202019%2C%20Trump%20had%20famously%20said%3A%20%22You%20have%20never%20had%20a%20better%20friend%20in%20the%20White%20House%20than%20President%20Donald%20Trump%22.%20If%20you%20contrast%20his%20words%20with%20how%20he%20has%20undermined%20India%27s%20interests%20in%20Afghanistan%2C%20you%20might%20well%20ask%2C%20%22With%20friends%20like%20this%2C%20who%20needs%20enemies%22%3F%26nbsp%3B

But%20then%2C%20Trump%20has%20always%20proclaimed%20loud%20and%20clear%2C%22%20America%20first%22%2C%20by%20which%20he%20actually%20means%20%27Me%20first%22.%26nbsp%3BDuring%20his%202016%20election%20campaign%20and%20afterward%2C%20Trump%20had%20repeatedly%20promised%20to%20bring%20home%20American%20troops%20from%20Afghanistan%2C%20Syria%20and%20Iraq.%20He%26nbsp%3Bhad%20said%20that%20the%20pullout%20of%20American%20troops%20from%20%u201Cridiculous%2C%20endless%20wars%20was%20a%20cornerstone%20of%20his%20foreign%20policy%22.%26nbsp%3BMore%20than%202%2C400%20US%20troops%20had%20been%20killed%20during%20the%20Afghanistan%20conflict%2C%20and%20over%2020%2C000%20had%20been%20wounded%3B%20about%2012%2C000%20troops%20were%20still%20stationed%20in%20that%20country.

With%20his%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22US%20Presidential%20elections%3A%20You%20ain%27t%20seen%20nothing%20yet%22%3Ere-election%20coming%20up%20on%20November%203%2C%20%3C/a%3ETrump%20desperately%20wanted%20to%20reach%20an%20agreement%20with%20the%20Taliban%20in%20order%20to%26nbsp%3Bshow%20to%20his%20voter-base%20that%20he%20was%20indeed%20bringing%20the%20troops%20back%20as%20promised.%20On%20February%2029%2C%20in%20pursuit%20of%20this%20objective%2C%20the%20Trump%20Administration%20reached%20a%20peace%20deal%20with%20the%20Taliban%26nbsp%3Bwhich%20provided%20for%20the%20withdrawal%20of%20American%20troops%20from%20Afghanistan%2C%20effectively%20putting%20an%20end%20to%20America%27s%2018-year%20war%20long%20in%20that%20country.

The%20US%20agreed%20that%20within%26nbsp%3B135%20days%20of%20the%20deal%2C%20it%20would%20reduce%20its%20forces%20in%20Afghanistan%20to%208%2C600%20and%26nbsp%3Bwithdraw%20them%20completely%20within%2014%20months.%20US%20allies%20were%20also%20to%20withdraw%20their%20troops%20proportionately.%20Moreover%2C%20the%20US%20agreed%20to%20lift%20sanctions%20against%20the%20Taliban%20and%20to%20work%20with%20the%20UN%20to%20lift%20its%20separate%20sanctions%20against%20it.%20In%20return%2C%26nbsp%3Bthe%20Taliban%20agreed%20not%20to%20allow%20al-Qaeda%20or%20any%20other%20extremist%20group%20to%20operate%20in%20the%20areas%20they%20controlled.%20Additionally%2C%20the%20deal%20also%20provided%20for%20a%20prisoner%20swap%3B%20some%205%2C000%20Taliban%20prisoners%20and%201%2C000%20Afghan%20security%20force%20prisoners%20would%20be%20exchanged%20by%2010%20March%2C%20when%20talks%20between%20the%20Taliban%20and%20the%20Afghan%20government%20were%20due%20to%20start.%26nbsp%3B

%26nbsp%3BIf%20Trump%20really%20wanted%20to%20bring%20peace%20to%20Afghanistan%2C%20then%20he%26nbsp%3Bmade%20a%20blunder%20by%26nbsp%3Bputting%20the%20cart%20before%20the%20horse%2C%20for%26nbsp%3Bthe%20announcement%20of%20a%20timetable%20for%20US%20troop%20withdrawal%20should%20have%20been%20made%20only%20after%20the%20talks%20between%20the%20Afghan%20Government%20and%20the%20Taliban%20had%20reached%20an%20acceptable%20outcome.%20By%20announcing%20the%20withdrawal%20timetable%20before%20these%20talks%20had%20even%20started%2C%20Trump%20played%20into%20the%20hands%20of%20the%20Taliban%20and%20their%20backers%20in%20the%20Pakistan%20Government%2C%20especially%20the%20ISI.%20The%20Taliban%20quickly%20realised%26nbsp%3Bthat%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22Implications%20of%20Donald%20Trump%20testing%20positive%20for%20COVID-19%22%3ETrump%3C/a%3E%20had%20made%20up%20his%20mind%20to%20pull%20out%20US%20troops%2C%20and%20they%20built%20their%20strategy%20around%20procrastination%20and%20erecting%20obstacles%20in%20their%20talks%20with%20the%20Kabul%20regime%2C%20thus%26nbsp%3Bbuying%20time.

%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/pakistans-obsession-with-kashmir-and-the-elephant-twist-the-backstory%22%3E%3Cstrong%3EAlso%20read%3C/strong%3E%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EPakistan%27s%20obsession%20with%20Kashmir%20and%20the%20elephant%20twist%3A%20The%20backstory%3C/strong%3E%3C/a%3E

In%20a%20rhetorical%20fashion%2C%20Trump%20has%20said%26nbsp%3B%22If%20bad%20things%20happen%2C%20we%27ll%20go%20back%20with%20a%20force%20like%20no-one%27s%20ever%20seen%22.%26nbsp%3B

However%2C%20he%20also%20said%20that%20now%20%22it%20was%20time%20for%20someone%20else%20to%20do%20that%20work%20and%20it%20will%20be%20the%20Taliban%20and%20it%20could%20be%20surrounding%20countries%22.%26nbsp%3B%20That%20mumbo-jumbo%20simply%20means%20that%20Trump%20couldn%27t%20care%20less%20about%20what%20happens%20in%20Afghanistan%20after%20the%20US%20troops%20had%20left.

Trump%20has%20further%20compounded%20the%20problem%20in%20recent%20months.%26nbsp%3BOn%20August%204%2C%20he%20said%20that%26nbsp%3Bthe%20U.S.%20military%20presence%20in%20Afghanistan%20will%20be%20reduced%20to%20%u201Canywhere%20from%204%2C000%20to%205%2C000%u201D%20troops%20by%20November%20this%20year.%20Then%2C%20while%26nbsp%3BAssistant%20Secretary%20of%20Defense%20for%20Indo-Pacific%20Security%20Affairs%26nbsp%3BDavid%20F.%20Helvey%2C%20told%20Congress%20last%20month%20that%26nbsp%3BPentagon%20is%20making%20plans%20to%20withdraw%20all%20troops%26nbsp%3Bfrom%20Afghanistan%20by%20May%20next%20year%2C%20Trump%20tweeted%20recently%20on%20October%208%3A%20%22We%20should%20have%20the%20small%20remaining%20number%20of%20our%20BRAVE%20Men%20and%20Women%20serving%20in%20Afghanistan%20home%20by%20Christmas%22.%20This%20is%20music%20to%20the%20Taliban%27s%20ears%2C%20and%20they%20have%20welcomed%20Trump%27s%20announcement%2C%20for%20it%20means%20that%20they%20%28and%20the%20Pakistanis%29%20have%20to%20wait%20just%20a%20month%20and%20a%20half%20before%20they%20enjoy%20a%20freer%20hand%20in%20dealing%20with%20Kabul.

The%20long-awaited%20intra-Afghan%20dialogue%20between%20the%20Kabul%20government%20and%20the%20Taliban%20started%20on%20September%2012%20but%20it%20is%20stalled%20and%20still%20far%20from%20achieving%20any%20results.%20The%20talks%20are%20hardly%20making%20any%20progress%20on%20some%20basic%20sticking%20points.%20The%20Afghan%20government%20backs%20the%20current%20political%20system%2C%20while%20the%20Taliban%20wants%20to%20reimpose%20its%20version%20of%20Islamic%20law%20as%20the%20country%u2019s%20system%20of%20governance.%20The%20Taliban%2C%20who%20are%20Sunni%20hardliners%2C%20are%20insisting%20on%20adherence%20to%20the%20Hanafi%20school%20of%20Sunni%20Islamic%20jurisprudence%2C%20but%20the%20government%20negotiators%20say%20this%20could%20be%20used%20to%20discriminate%20against%20Hazaras%2C%20who%20are%20predominantly%20Shia%2C%20and%20other%20minorities%20in%20the%20country.

Nor%20has%20the%20violence%20been%20abating.%26nbsp%3BIt%20is%20reported%20that%26nbsp%3B12%2C000%20civilians%20have%20been%20killed%20and%20another%2015%2C000%20wounded%20after%20the%20US%20signed%20the%20withdrawal%20agreement%20with%20the%20Taliban%20on%20February%2029.%20On%20October%208%2C%20while%20delivering%20an%20address%20at%20the%20Manohar%20Parrikar%20Institute%20of%20Defence%20Studies%20in%20Delhi%2C%20Abdullah%20Abdullah%20conceded%20that%20%22One%20of%20the%20issues%20which%20is%20the%20cause%20of%20concern%20for%20our%20people%20has%20been%20the%20continuation%20of%20the%20high-level%20of%20violence%22.

There%20has%20been%20no%20letup%20in%20the%20violence%20in%20recent%20days.%20On%20October%203%2C%26nbsp%3Ba%20car%20bomb%20blast%20killed%2016%20people%20in%20Nangarhar%20and%20wounded%20over%2040.%20%26nbsp%3BOn%20October%205%2C%20the%20Governor%20of%20Laghman%20Province%20survived%20a%20suicide%20attack%2C%20but%20eight%20persons%20were%20killed.%26nbsp%3BThis%20happened%20just%26nbsp%3Bhours%20before%26nbsp%3BAfghanistan%20President%20Ashraf%20Ghani%26nbsp%3Barrived%20in%20Doha%26nbsp%3Bfor%20bilateral%20talks%26nbsp%3Bwith%20the%20Qatar%20government.%20Ghani%20refused%20to%20talk%20to%20the%20Taliban%20directly%20because%20of%20the%20recent%20string%20of%20terror%20attacks%20across%20Afghanistan.%26nbsp%3BReports%20have%20also%20emerged%20that%20the%20ISI%20had%20plotted%20the%20violence%20to%20continue%20derailing%20the%20intra-Afghan%20dialogue.

The%20Afghan%20government%20wants%20the%20Taliban%20to%20agree%20on%20a%20permanent%20ceasefire%2C%20a%20demand%20which%20has%20been%20resisted%20by%20the%20latter.%20In%20fact%2C%20the%20Taliban%20have%20shown%20no%20interest%20in%20reducing%20the%20violence%20as%20it%20is%20part%20of%20their%20strategy%20for%20increasing%20the%20pressure%20on%20the%20Kabul%20government.%20In%20his%20speech%20at%20the%20talks%20in%20Doha%2C%26nbsp%3BAbdullah%20Abdullah%20%28who%20is%20heading%20the%20Kabul%20government%27s%26nbsp%3Bdelegation%29%26nbsp%3Bcalled%20for%20an%20immediate%20ceasefire.%20On%20the%20other%20hand%2C%26nbsp%3BMullah%20Abdul%20Ghani%20Baradar%20speaking%20on%20behalf%20of%20the%20Taliban%20made%20no%20mention%20of%20a%20truce%20in%20his%20speech.

Recently%2C%20the%20Trump%20administration%20has%20indicated%20that%20it%20is%20keen%20to%20see%20some%20kind%20of%20deal%20among%20all%20Afghan%20groups%20before%20the%20presidential%20elections%20in%20November.%20However%2C%26nbsp%3BPakistan%27s%20Prime%20Minister%20Imran%20Khan%20has%20asserted%26nbsp%3Bthat%20the%20intra-Afghan%20talks%20may%20take%20time%20to%20evolve%20a%20consensus.%20In%20an%20op-ed%20for%20The%20Washington%20Post%2C%20Imran%20warned%20that%26nbsp%3B%22All%20those%20who%20have%20invested%20in%20the%20Afghan%20peace%20process%20should%20resist%20the%20temptation%20for%20setting%20unrealistic%20timelines%22.%20Clearly%2C%20Pakistan%20does%20not%20want%20the%20US%20to%20exert%20pressure%20on%20the%20Taliban%20to%20expedite%20matters.

%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/quad-meeting-in-tokyo-taming-the-dragon%22%3E%3Cstrong%3EAlso%20read%3A%20Quad%20meeting%20in%20Tokyo–%20taming%20the%20dragon%3F%3C/strong%3E%3C/a%3E

What%20about%20China%2C%20one%20may%20ask%3F%20A%20view%20has%20been%20expressed%20that%20China%20does%20not%20want%20a%20Taliban-ruled%20Afghanistan%20on%20account%20of%20its%20problems%20with%20the%20Muslim%20minority%20in%20Xinjiang%2C%20but%20one%20should%20not%20be%20too%20certain%20that%20this%20is%20true.%20There%20are%20reports%20that%20China%20is%20opening%20communication%20channels%20to%20the%20Taliban%20through%20Pakistan%20and%26nbsp%3Bsees%20an%20opportunity%20to%20fill%20the%20space%20created%20by%20the%20American%20exit%20from%20Afghanistan.%20Like%20its%20all-weather%20friend%20Pakistan%2C%20it%20would%20also%20be%20happy%20to%20see%20India%20elbowed%20out%20of%20Afghanistan%26nbsp%3Band%20to%20exercise%20more%20influence%20in%20Kabul.%20China%20can%20easily%20fund%20development%20projects%20in%20Afghanistan%20while%20exploiting%20the%20latter%27s%20large%20reserves%20of%20natural%20resources.

Thus%2C%20a%20working%20relationship%20with%20the%20Taliban%20may%20work%20in%20China%27s%20favour%3B%20the%20Taliban%20would%20get%20financial%20assistance%20and%20be%20happy%20to%20overlook%20the%20massive%20oppression%20of%20the%20Uighurs%2C%20as%20Pakistan%20itself%20has%20done.%20In%20January%20this%20year%2C%26nbsp%3B%20Imran%20Khan%20said%20while%20speaking%20to%20Foreign%20Policy%20Magazine%20that%20he%20has%20been%20silent%20on%20the%20repression%20of%20Uighur%20Muslims%20because%20China%20has%20helped%20Pakistan.%20%22China%20came%20to%20help%20our%20government%20when%20we%20were%20at%20rock%20bottom.%20So%2C%20we%20are%20really%20grateful%20to%20the%20Chinese%20government%2C%20and%20we%20decided%20that%20whatever%20issues%20we%20will%20have%20with%20China%2C%20we%20will%20deal%20with%20them%20privately.%20We%20will%20not%20go%20public%2C%u201D%20he%20said.%26nbsp%3B%20Interestingly%2C%20the%26nbsp%3BAfghanistan%20Government%20too%20has%20reportedly%20arrested%20and%20handed%20over%20several%20Muslim%20Uighur%20militants%20from%20China.%26nbsp%3BThe%20Taliban%20may%20also%20take%20a%20leaf%20out%20of%20all%20this%20and%20shape%20their%20policy%20towards%20China%20and%20the%20Uighurs%20accordingly.%26nbsp%3B

Summing%20up%2C%20Pakistan%20is%20implementing%20a%20strategy%20aimed%20at%20calling%20the%20shots%20in%20Afghanistan%26nbsp%3Band%20pushing%20India%20out%20completely%3B%20China%20will%20support%20it%20fully%20in%20this%20regard.%20If%20Trump%20goes%20ahead%20and%20pulls%20out%20the%20remaining%20US%20troops%20by%20Christmas%2C%20the%20violence%20in%20Afghanistan%20will%20certainly%20increase.%26nbsp%3B

%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/saving-kulbhushan-jadhav%22%3E%3Cstrong%3EAlso%20read%3A%20Saving%20Kulbhushan%20Jadhav%3C/strong%3E%3C/a%3E

Pakistan%20has%20a%20land%20border%20with%20Afghanistan%20and%20will%20assist%20the%20Taliban%20to%20the%20hilt%2C%20which%20does%20not%20bode%20well%20for%20the%20Ashraf%20Ghani%20government%20in%20Kabul.%20In%20this%20scenario%2C%20the%20best%20that%20one%20can%20hope%20for%20is%20that%20the%20Pentagon%20persuades%20Trump%20to%20delay%20the%20withdrawal%20of%20the%20remaining%20US%20troops%2C%20then%20a%20new%20administration%20under%20Biden%28if%20he%20wins%20the%20election%29%20reviews%20the%20US%20policy%20in%20Afghanistan%20and%20decides%20that%20a%20Taliban-led%20government%20in%20Kabul%20is%20not%20in%20its%20interests.%20Biden%20too%20has%20spoken%20in%20favour%20of%20pulling%20out%20troops%20from%20Afghanistan%20and%20Iraq%2C%20but%20his%20approach%20differs%20from%20that%20of%20Trump.%20Biden%20says%20troops%20must%20be%20withdrawn%20responsibly%20and%20that%20a%20residual%20force%20presence%20will%20be%20needed%20in%20Afghanistan%20to%20ensure%20that%20terrorist%20groups%20can%27t%20rebuild%20and%20attack%20America%20again.%20Thus%2C%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election%2C%20which%20is%20just%20a%20little%20more%20than%20three%20weeks%20away%20may%20have%20consequences%20not%20just%20for%20Afghanistan%20but%20for%20the%20wider%20South%20Asian%20region%20also.

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