US%20Presidential%20Election%202020%3A%20Who%20will%20be%20better%20for%20India%2C%20Trump%20or%20Biden

#DonaldTrump #JoeBiden #USElection

A bipartisan consensus has been forged in the US on seeking a closer relationship with India due to increasing convergence in the interests of the two countries
The Indo-US cooperation has rested on three main pillars: economic, security and regional issues
During the Obama-Biden period (2009-17) security, regional and some international issues got more traction

Written By:Yogesh

Updated: November 01 2020 06:55:28 AM ET New Delhi, Delhi, India

US%20Presidential%20election%2C%20scheduled%20on%20November%203%2C%202020%2C%20is%20a%20contestation%20between%20the%20incumbent%20President%20Donald%20Trump%20of%20the%20Republican%20Party%20and%20Joseph%20R.%20Biden%20of%20the%20Democratic%20Party.%20Before%20entering%20politics%2C%20Trump%20was%20a%20businessman%3B%20Biden%20is%20a%20politician%2C%20who%20for%20decades%20has%20served%20on%20the%20Senate%20Foreign%20Relations%20Committee%2C%20including%20as%20its%20chair.%20In%20comparison%20to%20Trump%u2019s%20instinctive%20and%20impetuous%20style%2C%20Biden%20has%20a%20more%20calmer%2C%20thoughtful%20and%20consultative%20approach.%26nbsp%3B

They%20will%20be%20taking%20over%20the%20Presidency%20at%20a%20time%20when%20there%20are%20urgent%20challenges%20at%20home%20to%20heal%20the%20numerous%20fractures%20in%20the%20polity%20after%20the%20race%20riots%2C%20control%20the%20ravaging%20COVID-19%20pandemic%2C%20need%20to%20revive%20the%20economy%20and%20reduce%20the%20high%20unemployment%20due%20to%20closure%20of%20many%20industries%20and%20businesses.%26nbsp%3B

Fortunately%2C%20a%20bipartisan%20consensus%20has%20been%20forged%20in%20the%20USA%20on%20seeking%20a%20closer%20relationship%20with%20India%20due%20to%20increasing%20convergence%20in%20the%20interests%20of%20the%20two%20countries%20on%20a%20range%20of%20issues.%20China%u2019s%20expanding%20economy%2C%20rapid%20modernisation%20of%20its%20military%20and%20its%20obsession%20to%20secure%20leadership%20in%20emerging%20technologies%20have%20engendered%20Beijing%20to%20seek%20primacy%20in%20Asia%20and%20later%20in%20the%20world.%26nbsp%3B

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India%u2019s%20growing%20economy%2C%20its%20big%20professional%20armed%20forces%2C%20location%20at%20the%20heart%20of%20the%20Indo-Pacific%20and%20determination%20to%20resist%20China%u2019s%20unfair%20policies%20and%20unrelenting%20aggression%20have%20underscored%20India%u2019s%20usefulness%20in%20safeguarding%20its%20security%20interests%20in%20the%20Asia-Pacific%2C%20including%20the%20preservation%20of%20the%20liberal%20international%20order.%20India%20also%20needs%20America%u2019s%20help%20to%20counter%20the%20growing%20asymmetry%20in%20economic%2C%20military%20and%20technological%20fields%20with%20China%20and%20latter%u2019s%20aggressive%20forays%20from%20time%20to%20time%20along%20its%20undemarcated%20borders.%26nbsp%3B

In%20addition%2C%20the%20two%20countries%2C%20being%20democracies%20with%20shared%20outlook%20and%20perceptions%20have%20been%20working%20together%20on%20a%20range%20of%20other%20issues%20such%20as%20maritime%20security%2C%20counter-terrorism%2C%20building%20of%20infrastructure%20in%20the%20Indo-Pacific%20region%20and%20multilateral%20issues%20such%20as%20humanitarian%20relief%2C%20climate%20change%2C%20pandemics%20control%2C%20space%20exploration%20and%20others.%20Trump%20is%20known%20for%20his%20transactional%20approach%20to%20specific%20issues%2C%20which%20confer%20immediate%20dividend%20to%20the%20USA%3B%20Biden%20will%20have%20a%20more%20comprehensive%20perspective%20seeking%20alignment%20for%20cooperation%20in%20political%2C%20economic%2C%20strategic%20and%20other%20fields%20over%20the%20long%20term.%26nbsp%3B

The%20Indo-US%20cooperation%20has%20rested%20on%20three%20main%20pillars%3A%20economic%2C%20security%20and%20regional%20issues%3B%20the%20salience%20of%20each%20has%20varied%20depending%20on%20the%20changes%20in%20the%20regional%20and%20global%20situation.%20During%20the%20Obama-Biden%20period%20%282009-17%29%20security%2C%20regional%20and%20some%20international%20issues%20got%20more%20traction%3B%20in%20Trump%20administration%20%282017-21%29%20trade%2C%20immigration%20and%20security%20issues%20got%20more%20prominence.%26nbsp%3B

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To%20examine%20the%20outlook%20of%20the%20two%20principal%20contenders%2C%20the%20issues%20between%20India-USA%20are%20divided%20into%20three%20clusters%3A%20bilateral%20issues%20such%20as%20economic%2C%20immigration%2C%20human%20rights%20and%20security%2C%20regional%20issues%2C%20including%20China%2C%20Pakistan%2C%20Afghanistan%20and%20Iran%20and%20international%20issues%20such%20as%20climate%20change%2C%20pandemic%20control%20and%20others.

President%20Trump%20came%20into%20office%20with%20a%20callow%20view%20that%20USA%u2019s%20international%20engagements%20had%20been%20disadvantageous%20to%20her%20and%20had%20resulted%20in%20erosion%20of%20her%20wealth%20and%20pre-eminence%20due%20to%20unending%20wars%20and%20accumulation%20of%20large%20deficit%20as%20its%20trade%20partners%20had%20not%20treated%20her%20fairly.%20Trump%20complained%20that%20India%20had%20instituted%20high%20tariffs%20on%20the%20American%20exports%20of%20high%20value%20motorcycles%2C%20medical%20stents%2C%20agricultural%2C%20dairy%20products%20and%20others.%26nbsp%3B

Not%20getting%20satisfaction%2C%20he%20ordered%20tariffs%20on%20various%20Indian%20exports%20such%20as%20steel%20and%20aluminium%20items.%20He%20withdrew%20the%20benefits%20given%20to%20India%u2019s%20exports%20for%20about%202%2C000%20items%20valued%20at%20%246.3%20billion%20under%20the%20Generalised%20System%20of%20Preferences%20%28GSP%29%20arguing%20that%20India%20did%20not%20merit%20these%20ignoring%20lndia%u2019s%20low%20per%20capita%20income%20and%20other%20indicators.

He%20demanded%20that%20India%20should%20not%20constrain%20American%20companies%20for%20storing%20data%20of%20their%20India%20operations%20abroad%2C%20levy%20of%20taxes%20by%20India%20on%20technology%20giants%20like%20Amazon%2C%20Google%20for%20their%20local%20operations%20and%20working%20of%20e%20commerce%20giants%20like%20Amazon%2C%20as%20per%20Indian%20laws.

Bilateral%20trade%20in%20goods%20and%20services%20between%20India%20and%20USA%20in%202019%20was%20of%20%24146%20billion%2C%20India%u2019s%20exports%20of%20%24%2087.4%20billion%20and%20imports%20%24%2058.6%20billion%2C%20and%20a%20deficit%20of%20%24%2028.8%20billion.%20Trump%20was%20somewhat%20pacified%20after%20being%20told%20by%20PM%20Modi%20that%20trade%20deficit%20was%20getting%20reduced%20in%20recent%20years%3B%20also%2C%20India%20had%20spent%20%243%20billion%20on%20purchase%20of%20US%20weaponry%2C%20%2412%20billion%20on%20oil%20in%20last%205%20years%20and%20Indian%20students%20had%20spent%20%246%20billion%20on%20education%20in%20USA%20annually%2C%20some%20of%20which%20were%20not%20included%20in%20the%20trade%20data.%20If%20returned%20to%20office%2C%20Trump%20is%20likely%20to%20redirect%20his%20focus%20on%20reducing%20trade%20deficit%20with%20India%20and%20other%20countries.

Biden%20is%20unlikely%20to%20follow%20Trump%u2019s%20narrow%20approach%20and%20would%20seek%20more%20traditional%20avenues%20like%20the%20WTO%20dispute%20settlement%20mechanisms%20for%20resolving%20the%20trade%20disputes.%20But%20given%20the%20rising%20deficit%20and%20unemployment%20in%20the%20USA%20in%20the%20post-pandemic%20period%2C%20a%20more%20liberal%20approach%20towards%20trade%20issues%20is%20unlikely%20given%20the%20complaints%20of%20the%20US%20industry%20about%20the%20high%20tariffs%20in%20India.%26nbsp%3B

%3Cstrong%3EAlso%20Read%20%7C%26nbsp%3B%3C/strong%3E%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/where-do-donald-trump-and-joe-biden-stand-on-racial-injustice-police-reforms%22%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhere%20do%20Donald%20Trump%20and%20Joe%20Biden%20stand%20on%20racial%20injustice%2C%20police%20reforms%3C/strong%3E%3C/a%3E

Another%20reverie%20that%20Trump%20proffered%20was%20that%20foreign%20migrants%2C%20both%20legal%20and%20illegal%20from%20India%20and%20other%20countries%2C%20had%20taken%20away%20local%20jobs%20and%20that%20severe%20restrictions%20must%20be%20imposed%20to%20restrict%20their%20number%2C%20deport%20those%20staying%20illegally%20and%20restrict%20the%20fresh%20arrivals%20to%20highly%20skilled%20ones.%20As%20a%20result%20the%20number%20of%20visas%20issued%20for%20project%20workers%2C%20their%20spouses%20and%20students%20for%20education%20and%20working%20in%20the%20USA%20was%20reduced.%20Biden%20is%20likely%20to%20take%20a%20more%20constructive%20approach%20though%20keeping%20in%20view%20the%20heightened%20unemployment%20situation%20in%20the%20country.

Some%20Biden%20advisers%20have%20stated%20that%20he%20would%20raise%20the%20human%20rights%20issues%20with%20the%20Indian%20government%20like%20Obama.%20This%20will%20be%20more%20in%20the%20nature%20of%20dialogue%20among%20friendly%20states%20and%20such%20issues%20would%20not%20be%20the%20main%20driver%20of%20Biden%20administration%u2019s%20overall%20policy%20towards%20India%20given%20New%20Delhi%u2019s%20sensitivities%20and%20the%20importance%20attached%20to%20more%20important%20strategic%20issues%20confronting%20the%20two%20countries.

Mutually%20shared%20convergences%20on%20the%20strategic%20issues%20will%20remain%20the%20bedrock%20of%20the%20future%20Indo-USA%20ties%20with%20both%20Trump%20and%20Biden.%20The%20%u2018rising%u2019%20China%20with%20its%20unfair%20and%20aggressive%20policies%20poses%20a%20challenge%20to%20the%20global%20dominance%20and%20leadership%20of%20the%20USA%20and%20to%20India%u2019s%20stability%2C%20security%20and%20peaceful%20development.%26nbsp%3B

India%20is%20the%20only%20country%2C%20after%20the%20USA%2C%20which%20has%20demonstrated%20a%20strong%20resolve%20to%20resist%20China%u2019s%20abusive%20behaviour.%20Several%20agreements%20%28e.g.%20LEMOA%2C%20COMCASA%20and%20BECA%20recently%29%20have%20already%20been%20signed%20between%20India%20and%20the%20USA%20to%20share%20logistical%2C%20communications%20facilities%20and%20exchange%20defence%2C%20intelligence%20and%20spatial%20information.

The%20USA%20will%20continue%20to%20remain%20an%20important%20source%20of%20advanced%20weapons%2C%20emerging%20technologies%20and%20security%20related%20assistance%20for%20India.%20Biden%20administration%20is%20likely%20to%20show%20more%20understanding%20than%20Trump%2C%20of%20India%u2019s%20strategic%20autonomy%20and%20its%20need%20to%20secure%20military%20supplies%20from%20a%20range%20of%20countries%20including%20Russia%2C%20France%2C%20Israel%20and%20others.

In%20contrast%20to%20Trump%u2019s%20unilateral%20approach%2C%20Biden%20has%20stated%20that%20he%20would%20build%20a%20%u201Cunited%20front%20of%20US%20allies%20and%20partners%20to%20confront%20China%u2019s%20abusive%20behaviours%20and%20human%20rights%20violations%u201D%20and%20he%20would%20get%20tough%20with%20China%20on%20its%20theft%20of%20intellectual%20property%2C%20subsidies%20to%20its%20state%20owned%20enterprises%20and%20export%20of%20sensitive%20technologies%20to%20Beijing.%20Given%20that%20many%20allies%20have%20developed%20considerable%20distrust%20of%20the%20USA%20and%20have%20strong%20economic%20interests%20with%20China%2C%20it%20is%20unclear%20how%20much%20they%20would%20support%20Biden%20in%20this%20effort.

While%20critics%20have%20blamed%20Trump%20for%20his%20unilateralist%20and%20America%20first%20policy%20which%20has%20soured%20relations%20with%20many%20allies%2C%20it%20should%20be%20admitted%20that%20many%20allies%20have%20now%20started%20spending%20much%20more%20on%20their%20national%20security%20which%20is%20a%20positive%20given%20that%20that%20a%20weakening%20America%20can%20hardly%20meet%20all%20security%20concerns%20of%20its%20allies%20and%20partners%20in%20the%20face%20of%20China%u2019s%20rapid%20modernisation%20of%20its%20military.

Also%2C%20Trump%20took%20a%20number%20of%20punitive%20actions%20against%20China%20like%20application%20of%20tariffs%20on%20its%20exports%2C%20sanctions%20on%20export%20of%20sensitive%20technologies%2C%20violations%20of%20human%20rights%2C%20closure%20of%20China%u2019s%20consulate%20in%20Houston%2C%20reducing%20the%20number%20of%20Chinese%20professors%20and%20students%20in%20the%20USA%20working%20in%20sensitive%20disciplines%20and%20others.%20Obama-Biden%20duo%20on%20the%20other%20hand%2C%20did%20little%20in%20constraining%20China%20in%20militarisation%20of%20the%20South%20China%20Sea.%20Many%20critics%20believe%20that%20Biden%20will%20be%20too%20soft%20on%20China%2C%20which%20may%20embolden%20Beijing%u2019s%20aggressive%20attitude%20further%20towards%20weaker%20countries%20endangering%20their%20security.

On%20the%20issue%20of%20terrorism%20emanating%20from%20Pakistan%2C%20both%20Trump%20and%20Biden%20have%20stated%20that%20they%20will%20support%20India.%20There%20was%20some%20improvement%20in%20Trump%20administration%u2019s%20support%20on%20the%20designation%20of%20Masood%20Azhar%20as%20a%20global%20terrorist%20by%20the%20UN%20Security%20Council%20but%20reduction%20in%20Pakistan%20directed%20terrorism%20aimed%20at%20India%20occurred%20only%20after%20India%u2019s%20own%20actions%2C%20i.e.%20punitive%20strike%20at%20Balakot%20and%20administrative%20reorganisation%20of%20Jammu%20and%20Kashmir%20on%20August%205%2C%202020%20which%20made%20it%20difficult%20for%20the%20local%20sympathisers%20to%20aid%20the%20Pakistani%20terrorists.%26nbsp%3B

Unlike%20Trump%2C%20Biden%20will%20not%20be%20in%20a%20terrible%20hurry%20to%20withdraw%20all%20troops%20from%20Afghanistan%3B%20he%20is%20likely%20to%20retain%20a%20small%20part%20of%20USA%u2019s%20special%20forces%20to%20aid%20the%20counter-terrorism%20operations%20against%20the%20terrorist%20groups%20infested%20there.%20Similarly%2C%20he%20has%20also%20promised%20that%20he%20would%20renew%20the%20nuclear%20deal%20with%20Iran%20and%20ensure%20that%20Tehran%20complies%20strictly%20with%20the%20agreed%20provisions.

Biden%20has%20announced%20that%20on%20day%20one%20of%20his%20administration%2C%20the%20USA%20would%20re-join%20the%20Paris%20climate%20agreement%20and%20convene%20a%20summit%20of%20major%20carbon%20emitters%20to%20raise%20their%20ambitions%20to%20reduce%20harmful%20emissions.%20He%20has%20also%20made%20a%20similar%20commitment%20for%20spearheading%20renewed%20international%20arms%20control%20efforts%20and%20control%20of%20infectious%20diseases%20including%20the%20Covid-19.%20These%20initiatives%20will%20also%20be%20of%20considerable%20interest%20to%20India.

Concluding%2C%20Trump%20will%20be%20better%20for%20India%20in%20meeting%20its%20security%20concerns%20related%20to%20China%20and%20Biden%20on%20other%20issues.%20If%20Biden%20is%20able%20to%20rally%20USA%u2019s%20allies%20and%20take%20a%20tough%20approach%20to%20China%20on%20economic%20and%20security%20issues%2C%20he%20may%20turn%20out%20better%20in%20meeting%20India%u2019s%20overall%20interests.

%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23USElection%22%20data-user-id%3D%22izxeDCT9KwwC%22%20href%3D%22/topic/uselection%22%3E%23USElection%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23DonaldTrump%22%20data-user-id%3D%226bkg9ruYdDHn%22%20href%3D%22/topic/donald-trump%22%3E%23DonaldTrump%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23JoeBiden%22%20data-user-id%3D%225FRgjJ2CcsNt%22%20href%3D%22/topic/joe-biden%22%3E%23JoeBiden%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23India%22%20data-user-id%3D%22Bq4MmUPrXF8p%22%20href%3D%22/topic/india%22%3E%23India%3C/a%3E