Oil prices recovered part of their losses on Thursday after falling more than 5% to a three-week low the previous day as consuming nations declared a massive release of oil from emergency reserves to compensate for supplies lost from Russia.
Brent crude prices increased $1.32, or 1.3%, to $102.39 a barrel, while WTI crude futures in the United States rose $1.18, or 1.2%, to $97.41 a barrel.
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Member nations of the International Energy Agency decided to release 60 million barrels on top of the 180 million barrels declared by the United States last week in order to help drive down prices in a tight market following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reported Reuters.
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Russia refers to its actions in Ukraine as a “special operation” aimed at disarming its western neighbour. Despite the release of emergency oil reserves, analysts say supply remains constrained.
“In addition to the enormous global reserves release, demand destruction and recession are currently the only price-lowering mechanisms in a world devoid of inventory buffers,” said Stephen Innes, managing director of SPI Asset Management.
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According to National Australia Bank analyst Baden Moore, the current release combined with the IEA’s coordinated release announced on March 1 translates to 1 million barrels per day in additional supply from May through the end of 2022, which would restrict prices in the short run.
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“The additional supply reduces the near-term upside risk to the market and likely avoids the need for refinery cuts in the near term,” Moore said in a note. “But the need to restock reserves, expected in 2023, adds to the forward market tightness where the fundamental supply outlook remains unchanged, tilting the price risk to the upside.”
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Stalled indirect discussions between Iran and the US on renewing a 2015 agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program, according to Reuters, have further delayed the possibility of sanctions being eased on Iranian oil, keeping the market tight.