COVID-19 surge: ‘Intense’ 2nd wave will need more than just vaccine

The second wave of COVID-19 infections is bigger and worse. The doubling rate of infection – or the amount of time it takes for the number of cases to double – was down to less than 170 days on March 30. The last time infections were doubling in less than 170 days was in November and then around February there was a major drop in the number of cases. The government, doctors and people in general started to believe that the coronavirus pandemic was fizzling out, and switched to bare minimum precautions. And here we are, looking at far worse form of the deadly virus and the steepest rise in the number of Covid-19 cases.

More than 103,558 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Sunday, the highest single-day rise since the pandemic hit in March last year. India’s infection tally now stands at 1,25,89,067. The death toll climbed to 1,64,623 on Sunday with 513 new fatalities, the ministry data updated at 8 am showed. 

Also read: Night curfew imposed in Delhi from 10 pm to 5 am till April 30 amid COVID-19 surge

India had recorded its highest rise in the number of cases in a day on September 19, when 93,337 fresh infections were recorded.

India, which was among the first few countries to impose the nationwide lockdown in March last year, has now become the second country, after the US, to record over 1 lakh cases in a single day. 

Maharashtra on Sunday reported the highest single-day rise of 57,074 coronavirus positive cases while 222 patients succumbed to the infection. Mumbai, the country’s financial capital, alone reported 47,288 cases and 155 deaths on Monday.

Also read: Maharashtra’s weekend lockdown: Here are COVID-19 restrictions put in place

So another lockdown in the offing?

Experts say if not complete may be partial in the hotspot area.

Dr Randeep Guleria — chief of Delhi’s All-India Institute of Medical Sciences — told NDTV on Monday said that a strategy that can include lockdown in hotspots is much needed in this situation, which is said was “very worrying”.

He said that the hotspot strategy introduced last year as the nationwide lockdown was phased out, should be used again to contain the virus.  

“We could look at a strategy which could include a lockdown. I do agree with that. But it is not something we need to look at on a national level. We need to identify areas that are hotspots and that’s like what I said — we could have containment zones and lockdown areas (in those places)…,” said Dr Guleria, who is also a key member of the government’s COVID Task Force.

Also read: Delhi night curfew: Who all are exempt. Full list

A countrywide lockdown last year critically hit the economy and livelihoods of thousands of migrant labourers. Many across the nation lost their jobs and small businesses had to shut because of the major slowdown post lockdown.

So if not lockdown then what’s an alternative? 

As many as 10 states have opted for partial lockdowns after the second surge in the COVID-19 cases. Maharashtra has declared weekend lockdowns and night curfews from 8 pm to 7 am.

Dr Guleria suggested that containment zones, introduced last year as the lockdown was phased out, be used again as a strategy to contain the virus.  

The central teams are being sent to three states – Maharashtra, Punjab and Chhattisgarh to review the situation.

What led to this deadly second wave?

The it-won’t-catch-me behaviour of people, who often neglected basic guidelines expedited and fuelled the surge, which otherwise could have been less intense, experts say.

After being in lockdown for almost a year, people began socialising without taking proper precautions and with opening up of market places there was a boom in the number of cases. 

“It is behavioural fatigue. This has led to a dangerous form of fatalism, and the propensity to take risks,” Dr SP Kalantri, medical superintendent of Kasturba Gandhi hospital, told BBC.

Also read: As COVID numbers spiral, restrictions sneak back in many states. Full list

PM Narendra Modi also tweeted, “The five fold strategy of testing, tracing, treatment, COVID-appropriate behaviour and vaccination as an effective way to fight the global pandemic.” 

In Maharashtra, Gujarat and Punjab, cases have already surged to close to or above their previous peaks. 

Is vaccination helping?

Vaccinations will play a part in controlling the wave, say experts but vaccination vs infection ratio can only be contained at this stage with a mix strategy of partial lockdowns and precautions.

Dr Murad Banaji, a mathematician at Middlesex University London who is closely tracking the pandemic, told BBC that at the current pace vaccination is going to have “little effect on slowing spread of the virus in a month or two.” 

So far, more than 50 million doses have been administered in a span of two months.

With the surge in the number of COVID-19 cases, the one thing that people can do individually is to not repeat the same mistake again – ignore guidelines – and know that the virus is not ‘age-specific’ and vaccine doesn’t give you a certificate to roam about freely. The virus is watching all the careless and vulnerable ones, so you watch out for cure and that is just one for now, precautions.