Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared his theory about how the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia might end. He opened up a Twitter poll, listed out the outcomes he thought possible, and asked his followers to vote on whether they agreed with him.
The tweet started with “Ukraine-Russia Peace” and had “redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people,” as one of the outcomes.
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“Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake),” the tweet also noted, adding “water supply to Crimea assured,” and “Ukraine remains neutral.”
In the same thread, the 51-year-old said, “This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then.”
Musk also added in a later tweet, “Also worth noting that a possible, albeit unlikely, outcome from this conflict is nuclear war.”
The poll had a million responses in less than two hours. Most people however disagreed with Musk’s list of outcomes, with most people voting “no.”
Musk blamed the ratio of responses, claiming the poll was under what he called a “bot attack.”
“The bot attack on this poll is strong!” he claimed in one tweet and “Indeed. Biggest bot attack I’ve ever seen,” in another.
One user tweeted, “Elon, you’ve done SO MUCH GOOD for Ukraine by enabling Starlink & providing thousands of terminals. As a fellow Aspie I get that you’re hyperfocused on this topic right now, but these polls and the tweets about bot attacks aren’t helping – in fact, they enrage many Ukrainians.”
Musk replied, “You are assuming that I wish to be popular. I don’t care. I do care that millions of people may die needlessly for an essentially identical outcome.”
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He further explained, “Russia is doing partial mobilization. They go to full war mobilization if Crimea is at risk. Death on both sides will be devastating. Russia has >3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace.” He later pinned this tweet on his profile.
While some of his followers agreed with his predictions, some opposed them and some were critical of his actions. “Why give Starlink in the first place then?” one user asked.
To which Musk responded, “The will of the people should decide whether they are part of Russia or Ukraine, but Russia invaded areas that would unequivocally choose to be part of Ukraine.”
Musk’s SpaceX provided Ukraine with Starlink satellites, the internet services of which are used by 150,000 people in the country each day.
The roughly 2,000 satellites in low Earth orbit that makeup Starlink’s network are intended to provide high-speed internet anywhere. According to SpaceX, there are roughly 250,000 Starlink subscribers overall, including both residential and business users.
Due to the possibility of many users connecting to a single terminal, it is noteworthy that the number of daily active users differs from the subscribers or Starlink terminals in Ukraine.
Over 10,000 Starlink terminals, commonly referred to as dishes or antenna, offer service to Ukraine. They originate from numerous places.
The Twitter poll did not sit right with Ukrainian diplomat and the country’s Ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, who said, “F**k off is my very diplomatic reply to you @elonmusk,” in response.
About an hour after this response, Musk set up another “Yes/No” Twitter poll stating, “Let’s try this then: the will of the people who live in the Donbas & Crimea should decide whether they’re part of Russia or Ukraine.”
Within the first 30 minutes of this poll, there were half a million responses, the majority of which agreed with the proposed statement.
Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, replied to this second poll, saying, “Are you trying to legitimize pseudo-referendums that took place at gunpoint under conditions of persecution, mass executions and torture? Bad path.”
“No, I’m suggesting voting under UN (or pick your most trusted entity or country) supervision,” was Musk’s prompt response to Podolyak’s comment, following it with another tweet saying, “Maybe a similar approach to Kosovo.”
Another user wrote, “Luhansk authorities said 98.4% of people there had voted to join Russia. In Zaporizhia, a Russian-appointed official put the figure at 93.1% . In Kherson, the head of the voting committee said the “yes” vote was above 87%,” adding, “Don’t know how authentic the voting process was @elonmusk”
Musk replied, “That referendum was questionable, which is why I suggested repeating it under UN (or other trusted entity) supervision.”
Residents of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson areas in eastern Ukraine, which are partially controlled by Russia, claim that the Russian occupiers forced residents to “vote” on the streets, at makeshift polling places, and during home visits.
Beginning on September 23, what the West calls ‘sham referendums’ on the regions’ membership in the Russian Federation were held. Residents warned that refusing to take part in the forced “vote” would put their lives in danger, noting that armed Russian military soldiers had arrived with the members of the so-called “election committees.”
Also read: Thousands of Russians sent home as partial mobilisation plan hits block: Report
“The results are clear. Welcome home, to Russia! “Former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated on Telegram.
In areas of eastern and southern Ukraine, which comprise up around 15% of the country’s territory, authorities with support from Russia assert to have conducted the referendums during a five-day period.
Residents who just fled to Ukrainian-controlled areas have reported that roving officials have been intimidating voters into voting in the street while brandishing firearms. During the drill, armed men could be seen following Russian-installed officials as they carried ballot boxes from home to home.
Also read: Russia had 10 torture sites in Ukraine’s Izium, investigation finds
When a user said, “Russia’s leadership doesn’t want the UN anywhere near their borders. surely you can see the issue with your proposal here,” Musk was quick to respond with, “Great, offer a UN supervised vote and if Russia refuses, then war it is.”
The tension between Russia and Ukraine significantly escalated on February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. With almost 7.5 million Ukrainians fleeing the country and a third of the population being displaced, the invasion has likely led to tens of thousands of casualties on both sides and the greatest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.