California Governor Gavin Newsom’s fate will be decided by
the voters of the state in a rare recall election. The election is important,
not only for Newsom, as in if he can keep his job, but these elections will
also decide the political landscape in the traditionally blue state where
Republicans picked up four House seats in 2020.

Also read: California recall election: How many governors have been replaced before?

The best-case scenario for the Republican ambitions for
ousting Newsom in a state that has overwhelmingly voted for the Democrats in
the past has always been outsized GOP turnout and low Democratic turnout. The
reason there is no chance for the Republicans otherwise is that the registered
Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, according to CNN.

Also read: California recall election: A look at candidates in the fray

The 22 million registered voters in the state have already
voted by mail ballots last month. Early voting locations were also available in
all the counties for at least four days beginning on the Saturday before the
election. Many counties kept these locations open for longer than that.

So there is already a huge pile of data about the voters.
Republicans are hoping for a massive Election Day turnout to tip the scales in
their favour.

Also read: Who is Larry Elder, GOP candidate in California recall election race?

But the data so far favours the Democrats and it is them who
have been more engaged than expected. About 53% of ballots cast so far have
been from registered Democrats and 25% from registered Republicans, according
to Political Data Inc. The firm which gave this data works for Democratic
candidates, progressive organisations, and nonpartisan campaigns, according to
CNN. If the data is to be believed, the Democrats are safe, at least at the registration
level in the state.

Even so, there are some key areas to watch at the turnout
level on Tuesday if Newsom has to ensure his survival.

These are the Democratic areas that are key to this election:

One-time GOP strongholds

Flipped districts

The Central Valley

LA County’s and Imperial County’s Latino
communities