The explosion on the Crimean bridge has forced Russian President Vladimir Putin to make decisions about his country’s occupation of southern Ukraine more hastily.

Already, this entire operation was under-supplied, mismanaged, and on the retreat. The necessity to increase military shipments into Crimea and to the frontlines may now necessitate perilous ferry crossings in severe weather or extremely risky air cargo flights.

Also read: Crimean Bridge blast: Kerch Bridge age, length, history and purpose

With gradual, methodical accuracy, Ukraine has been focusing on Russia’s ageing reliance on rail for transportation. Izium came first, which caused the area around Kharkiv to collapse. Then Lyman, which is enabling Russia’s hold over Donetsk and Luhansk to deteriorate.

The Kerch Strait Bridge has grown to be absolutely crucial to everything that southern Russia is attempting to cling onto.

Putin must now make a number of swift and difficult choices that will all significantly undermine his face of confidence and bombast in the face of ominous indicators of creeping loss.

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His army is surrounded in Kherson to the west of the Dnieper River by swiftly moving Ukrainian forces. Due in part to the same inadequate resupply that would be made worse by the Kerch blast, Putin’s soldiers are already on the retreat.

They are once more cut off from this unstable supply route by the second set of Dnieper bridges that have been damaged or deliberately attacked. They have already lost more than 500 square kilometres (about 193 square miles) during the past week.

Can Moscow keep this force going along two compromised supply routes? Perhaps overnight, a fragile presence became nearly impossible.

Also read: The Crimean Bridge, Made with Love, a Russian film on Kerch Bridge

Crimea is the subject of the second decision-making point. Putin now has to make the difficult decision of either partially withdrawing his soldiers to protect their valuable resources on the peninsula from being cut off or further strengthening it with reduced forces that face resupply problems.

Putin must decide whether to focus his efforts on a mission that has a better chance of accomplishment or feed his wider aspirations, which have declining chances of being accomplished.

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One runs the possibility of a catastrophic failure throughout his ruthless foray into Ukraine and probably even during his leadership.

The second results in an apparent loss of face but a higher likelihood that the occupation of more modest portions of Ukraine will continue.