New Delhi, Delhi, India

One of the significant outcomes of the Alaska ministerial meeting with the USA (March 18-19, 2021) was China’s assertion that it now considered itself as an equal of the former and would not be guided by the US values or judgements. Whether others agree or not, China’s President Xi Jingping believes that China’s time has come and it can now look at the world as USA’s equal (this is what Xi told the delegates to China’s National People’s Congress in March, 2021). Consequently, the Sino-US rivalry, which had gained momentum after Joe Biden’s appointment as the US President, has escalated further. Recently, the USA, Canada, UK and the European Union (EU) announced coordinated sanctions on China for alleged human rights violations of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. . Also Read | How US and China are competing over semiconductors and microchips. China was taken aback as it had started believing that the EU would follow an approach independent of the USA, after both had signed the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment in end-December, 2020. These countries have also taken a united position against China’s imposition of its security law on Hongkong which takes away most of latter’s earlier autonomy. USA and Japan took a strong position against China when they announced after a bilateral visit by Japan’s PM Yoshihide Suga to USA (April 16-17) that they would counter “China’s intimidation” and work together on its challenges in the East and South China Seas to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific (IP). . They underlined the importance of “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”, but upon return, Suga has downplayed Japan’s involvement in any military conflict over Taiwan. . Also Read | US not ready to lift tariffs, open to talks with China, says trade official. France joined the USA, India, Australia and Japan in conducting three days naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal from April 5 to “develop closer links, sharpen skills and promote maritime cooperation in a free and open IP”. UK and Germany have also announced plans to despatch their warships to the IP in the near future. . Indonesia and Philippines have spoken out against China’s aggressive activities in the South China Sea with the USA promising to stand by with its ally Philippines in its confrontation with China. The Australian government has cancelled two Belt and Road (BRI) deals signed by China with Victoria state government. Japan is seeking support also from Germany and India against China’s aggressive behaviour (visit of Japanese PM to India towards end April was cancelled due to 2nd wave of Covid) besides the USA. India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently rebutted China’s claim of likening the Quad to NATO saying it was infact, doing the opposite and “others can’t have a veto about what he would discuss with whom”. China has signalled to the USA’s allies and foreign companies to pay attention to its interests as well or be prepared for its retribution. It has imposed reciprocal sanctions against the US, Canadian, British and the EU countries’ entities and individuals and foreign companies who have opposed its interests. . Also Read | Russia-USA differences and their implications for India. China’s Foreign and Defence Ministers have been touring the EU, Middle East and ASEAN countries in search of new partners; Russia and Iran, both estranged with the USA, have conveyed their support to China; others such as Germany, France and South Korea have taken a more independent stand refusing to side fully with the USA. . China believes that the visits of the European countries’ warships to the South China Sea are at best symbolic and they would not join the USA in a military confrontation with her. Similarly, Japan is far away from taking any offensive posture against Beijing, constrained by its constitution. India will also maintain its distance from the USA and not like to make China its enemy. Irritated by the persistent US opposition, China turned cool to promise any new targets to President Biden on April 22 to reduce its long term emissions saying it can’t be part of a “US centered climate cooperation circle”. . To secure a leadership role with the developing countries, China has asked the USA to shoulder more responsibility (in accordance with the differentiated responsibility principle) to tackle climate change questioning the commitment of the future US presidents to any ambitious targets if someone like Trump or even George Bush is back. . China is deriving comfort from its 18.3% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 (over quarter 1, 2020) though it loses considerable lustre when compared with -6.8% growth in that quarter and mere 0.6% increase over Q4, 2020. . Also Read | China’s motivations in seeking thaw in its strained ties with India. Other bright spots were rise in industrial output in March 2021 by 14.1% and retail sales by 34.2%. FDI in China in the first quarter of 2021 surged by 43.8% over Q1, 2020 mainly from the EU, ASEAN and BRI states. However, several economists believe that China’s pre-pandemic target of 6% annual growth is yet to stabilise. . President Biden has had some success in uniting his European and Asian allies on human rights and technological issues like banning the Chinese Huawei from 5G networks. . But China believes that the USA’s allies would be loathe to support her in diverting the supply chains away from China or take other concrete actions to damage their economic interests with Beijing given their huge dependence on her for trade and other economic interests as their Covid-hit economies recover from recession.  . Also Read | 'Baseless': US condemns China's sanctions against 2 Americans over Xinjiang. Being a formidable competitor, President Xi Jingping has taken pre-emptive steps to deepen China’s economic ties with USA’s allies and others such as Germany, France, East European countries, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN, BRI states, the American and other foreign companies. . He remains confident that China would be able to carry on its high economic growth for many years and to transform its economic power into technological and military power with the support of USA’s allies and its indigenous capabilities. There are no signs on the horizon yet to suggest that the USA would able to constrain China’s economic power (its global manufacturing competitiveness) in any meaningful way. . #USChinaTies #UnitedStates #China #trade #Business #USEconomy #XiJinping #JoeBiden .

Yogesh Gupta

<ul><li>President Xi Jingping believes that China’s time has come and it can now look at the world as USA’s equal&nbsp;</li><li>The USA, Canada, UK and the EU have announced coordinated sanctions on China for alleged human rights violations of Uighur Muslims</li><li>China was taken aback as it had started believing that the EU would follow an approach independent of the USA</li></ul>

In%20cold%20war%20between%20US-China%2C%20Uncle%20Sam%20takes%20charge

USChinaTies

UnitedStates

China

trade

Business

USEconomy

XiJinping

JoeBiden

Tensions escalated between Moscow and Washington after President Biden called Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, “a killer” with Putin wishing him good health. Russia decided to recall its Ambassador from the USA for consultations, a sign of diplomatic protest. Putin offered public talks to the US President “without any delay” immediately by “video-link and broadcast live,” which were turned down by the USA.  . Bilateral relations have nosedived after Washington made allegations of repeat Russian interference in the US Presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 and hacking of websites of important US departments including those dealing with energy and nuclear security by Russia. Biden has threatened to impose newer sanctions after the Russian involvement is proved.  . Also Read | Joe Biden calls Vladimir 'killer', says had a 'long talk' with him in January. USA’s relationship with Russia today is the worst since 1985. How the relations have reached this nadir? Russia believes that even after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, it was entitled as a Great Power, to a “sphere of influence” and the USA humiliated her by extending the reach of NATO and the European Union (EU) to the former Soviet states (e.g. Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Lithuania, and others). . USA has refused to accept this premise and insists on the right of erstwhile Soviet states to choose their own future. Relations between the two countries began to sour after Putin returned to the Kremlin in 2012 convinced that the then US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton had supported the demonstrators who had protested his return to power. In 2013, Putin granted political asylum to Edward Snowden, a disgruntled contractor who had stolen millions of classified documents from the USA, ignoring President Obama’s request to return him.  . After the Russian troops occupied the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 (which had been part of Ukraine since 1954), following months of popular protests against the Ukrainian President, the USA imposed sanctions on the Russian individuals close to Putin and on Russia’s ability to access the financial markets. Also Read | 'America is going to hold China accountable': Biden during his first presser. Russia’s entry into the Syrian civil war in 2015 to support the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad created fresh problems with the USA as it was supporting groups opposed to Assad. USA’s National Security Strategy (December 2017) describes Russia( and China) as a revisionist power that wants to realign global order in its favour and the USA acting with its allies must compete to seek the momentum in its favour. Russia today has an economy of $ 1.5 trillion (India about $ 3 trillion, China $ 15 and the USA $19 trillion). The collapse of the oil prices in 2014 hit the Russian economy hard together with the sanctions imposed by the West. The Russian economy has stalled with Putin failing to undertake structural reforms for fear of losing control; disposable incomes and consumption have fallen after an increase in inflation and VAT from 18 to 20%.  . Also Read | Declining US-Russia relationship and challenges for India's foreign policy. While the Russian economy is weak, its military power is considerable, almost second to that of NATO (not the USA alone). There have been widespread protests in Russia following the arrest of an opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, who was reportedly poisoned by Putin’s agents for exposing corruption under his rule. Sanctions applied by the West have failed to alter Russia’s behaviour including in Ukraine. To increase its global influence, Putin has invested in developing new lethal armaments, which are not constrained by the existing arms control agreements such as hypersonic weapons (both conventional and nuclear), space-based missile defence systems, cyberwarfare and artificial intelligence-based autonomous systems.  . Russia perceives China as an important ally in its struggle for a multipolar world where countries have absolute sovereignty over their domestic affairs and are guided by the UN centred international architecture (where Rusia and China have a veto) rather than an international order based on Western values. Beyond the rhetoric of standing against the USA, there are sharp differences between Russia and China. Putin wants China to join Russia in an illiberal bloc against the USA. China has big investment and trade relations with the USA and European countries and is not interested to join any alliance against them.  . Also Read | Joe Biden invites Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to climate talks . Russia has been reticent about China’s nine-dash line claims in the South China Sea and has not joined its Belt and Road Initiative preferring instead to support and link it to its own Eurasian Economic Union(EEU). Russia is also not happy about the extension of the Chinese influence in its near areas, i.e. Central Asia; there are layers of mistrust and hostility fuelled by the Russian annexation of the Chinese territory in Siberia though the two countries have signed a border agreement. Russia has not shared its 5th generation fighter aircraft and other cutting edge technologies with China. Russia has been concerned with India’s growing close ties with the USA, particularly, in the military field. Russia does not want to lose India as a privileged partner whose 62% of weapons are of Russian origin.  . Moscow thinks that the IP concept advocated by India and other countries has an anti-China orientation and will weaken its Greater Eurasian Partnership which tries to unite the EEU, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation(SCO) and the ASEAN.  . India has assured Russia that its IP concept has a free, open and inclusive orientation but Russia is unlikely to join the Quad as a junior partner to the USA. Russia looks upon India’s security concerns arising from China’s aggressive actions mainly through the prism of settling its differences with the USA and its search for a multipolar world in which Beijing plays an important role. Russia has no leverage over Beijing and can’t prevent China’s leadership from launching another offensive against India.  . It will become increasingly difficult for India to buy the Russian weapons in view of Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act of the USA. Promoting deeper ties with the USA, managing its rivalry with China and differences with Russia is likely to pose multiple challenges for the Indian diplomacy in the coming years as competition and rivalries among these three major powers, i.e. the USA, China and Russia intensify for a higher place in the emerging world order. #Russia #JoeBiden #India #VladimirPutin #UnitedStates #IndiaUSties .

<ul><li>Putin offered public talks to the US President “without any delay” that was turned down by the USA</li><li>Bilateral relations have nosedived after Washington made allegations of repeat Russian interference in the US elections in 2016 and 2020</li><li>Biden has threatened to impose newer sanctions after the Russian involvement is proved</li></ul>

Russia-USA%20differences%20and%20their%20implications%20for%20India

Russia

India

VladimirPutin

IndiaUSties

In an important essay in the Foreign Affairs journal in March, 2020, the candidate for US President, Joseph Biden had observed that the most effective way to challenge China would be for the USA “to build a united front of US allies and partners to confront China’s abusive behaviours and human rights violations. To talk to China from a “position of strength”, President Biden took two important initiatives recently. First, he decided to upgrade the Quad (a group of Australia, India, Japan and USA) from the Foreign Ministers to the Leaders level and held its virtual meeting quickly on 12 March. Also Read | How Joe Biden will confront China. Second, President Biden resolved to depute his Secretaries of State, Anthony Blinken and Defence, Llyod Austin to Japan, South Korea and India from March 15 to 20 to ascertain their level of cooperation, scale and willingness to resist China’s aggression before the first USA-China dialogue at Anchorage, Alaska on 18 March. . Choice of Japan as the first stop was deliberate as Japan hosts the biggest US military contingent (its seventh fleet, 7 guided missile destroyers and about 62000 personnel) and is crucial for the US strategic posture towards China in East Asia. USA is hoping that Japan would agree to base its intermediate range missiles (aimed against China). USA Indo-Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell had reportedly lobbied with President Biden to choose Japanese PM Suga as the foreign leader to meet him in Washington. Also Read | How US and China are competing over semiconductors and microchips. China-Japan relations have come under fresh strains after China felt that Japan, disregarding its concerns, was getting too close to the USA. In a sign of displeasure, China despatched its coast guard vessels, which entered Japan’s territorial waters near the Senkaku islands six times, most in a single month since August, 2016. With the Chinese coastguard given power to fire at its adversaries, Japan feared that China might forcibly occupy these islands (like parts of Ladakh in case of India). Japan considered sending its troops to meet China’s Senkaku challenge. . An upset Japanese PM Suga strongly intervened with PM Modi on March 10 to persuade him to accept Quad’s elevation. In the joint statement, Japan pointed finger at China’s erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy and human right violations in Xinjiang which it had not done previously, indicating its annoyance with China. Also Read | Anti-China outrage pulls Beijing into Myanmar coup crisis. In the USA-Japan 2+2 dialogue on March 16, US Secretary of State assured his Japanese counterpart that the USA would join Japan in holding joint naval drills near the Senkaku islands, it would pushback China’s coercive and aggressive actions and maintain a competitive edge over China. . Two countries in their joint statement referred to China by name, an unusual practice in diplomatic parlance, calling “China’s behaviour inconsistent with the existing international order” and it presented “political, economic, military and technological challenges to the alliance and to the international community”. China’s reaction was equally fierce; it called Japan’s actions “contemptible” and accused her of being a “strategic vassal” of the USA. . 2 plus 2 with South Korea. After Tokyo, the US Secretaries of State and Defence visited Seoul to hold 2+2 dialogue with the South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Defence Minister, Suh Wook on 17 March. South Korea stopped short of publicising its concerns shared with the US on an aggressive China in the “free and open Indo-Pacific” concept (pursued by USA, Japan, India and others) not to unruffle Beijing. China is South Korea’s biggest trade partner, holds considerable sway over its truculent neighbour, North Korea and there are no outstanding security issues between them.  . Also Read | Pentagon chief sees Asia ties as deterrent against China. In their joint statement, South Korea agreed to increase the three-way cooperation among the USA, Japan and itself to promote mutually beneficial, forward looking cooperation to promote peace, security, and prosperity in the region including dealing with North Korea.  USA-China dialogue at Anchorage. China is despatching its Politburo member and top diplomat, Yang Jiechi with Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Anchorage for a “strategic dialogue” with the USA on March 18. Yang has been involved in high-level diplomacy with the US government and had done the groundwork for the Chinese President Xi Jingping’s telephone call with President Biden recently. China had been trying hard to resume high level contacts with the Biden administration to restore its strategic and economic dialogue but could not get clearance from the American side. . On the eve of the meeting, the Biden administration announced fresh sanctions on 24 Chinese officials including Politburo member Wang Chen (who led the new legislative changes on Hongkong curtailing its freedom) and 14 Vice Chairmen of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress and several senior Hongkong officials for undermining its democratic rights. It is a clear message that the Biden administration will not worry about offending China in public when necessary. Senior US officials have assured Japan, Australia, India and others that the USA would raise China’s aggressive behaviour towards its allies and partners with Beijing in these talks. These initiatives should send a clear message to China that its hegemony and assertive conduct would only push its neighbours in Asia deeper onto the US side. Beyond a point, they would be willing to sacrifice their economic interests too, as evident in the case of Australia, India and Japan to safeguard their security and territorial integrity. If China persisted on this course, the USA led coalition against her would only get stronger. #USChinaties #JoeBiden #XiJinping #UnitedStates #China #AnthonyBlinken #LloydAustin #SouthKorea #India .

<ul><li>US President Joe Biden had proposed to “build a united front of US allies to confront China's abusive behaviours and human rights violations"</li><li>Biden has upgraded the Quad from the Foreign Ministers to the Leaders level and held its virtual meeting on March 12</li><li>China is despatching diplomat Yang Jiechi with Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Anchorage for a “strategic dialogue” with the USA on March 18</li></ul>

US%20approaches%20Alaska%20meet%20with%20China%20from%20%27position%20of%20strength%27

AnthonyBlinken

LloydAustin

SouthKorea

It was announced last week that the Quad (a grouping of USA, Japan, India and Australia) would be meeting virtually at the highest level on 12 March, departing from its earlier practice of meeting at the Foreign Ministers level. What has suddenly happened to justify such a major elevation?. After taking over, the Biden administration has affirmed that it would have “extreme competition” with China and hold Beijing accountable for its human rights abuses, unfair economic policies and aggression against its neighbours. Also Read: How Joe Biden will confront China . In his phone conversation with the Chinese President Xi Jingping on February 11, the US President Joe Biden had conveyed his concerns about China’s political persecution in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, aggressive actions against USA’s allies and partners and unfair economic policies. Dismissing these, Chinese President Xi Jingping has continued to implement a harsh national security law in Hong Kong eroding the foundations of democracy and brazen assaults on the human rights of China’s ethnic minorities such as Uighurs, Tibetans and others calling these as China’s internal affair. Also read: Indo-US relations under Joe Biden: Looking into the crystal ball. With a view to pressurise Japan to distance itself from the USA, China’s coastguard vessels have been making repeated forays near the Diaoyus islands in East China Sea claimed by Japan. Similarly, China has continued its trade boycott of Australia by banning exports of its barley, wheat, cotton, iron ore, wines and other items.Mounting similar pressure on India, China is dithering to withdraw its troops from areas occupied after April, 2020 in Demchok, Gogra, Hot Springs and Depsang plains. Also Read: Quad all set to touch new heights with Friday summit. With a view to dialogue with Beijing on these issues from a position of strength, President Biden has decided to elevate the Quad to the highest level to send an unambiguous signal to China. USA is considering to organise a comprehensive meeting with China at Alaska or another location at a high level. Underlining Quad’s importance, a US State Department spokesman stated that the Quad was well equipped to deal with the world’s urgent challenges though its format was “not about any single competitor”(not to isolate China). USA is currently deputing its Secretary of State and Defence Secretary to the Quad countries and potential new members such as South Koreato consult them on areas of common concern. India was reportedly the last country among the Quad to agree to its elevation as it carefully considered how it would impact its traditional friendship with Russia and disengagement of the Chinese troops from the remaining friction points in Ladakh. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had suggested earlier that Beijing and New Delhi should stop undercutting each other and create enabling conditions by expanding bilateral cooperation to resolve the border issue. After the Japanese Prime Minister Suga’s phone call with Prime Minister Modi on March 9, India took the decision that there was value in elevating the Quad to the highest level. Also read: Why the Chinese President Xi Jinping is so insecure?. Japan is our major economic partner and in 2018-19, it spent $ 4.9 billion on its development assistance to India. Japan is funding the high-speed rail link between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, a dedicated freight corridor in Western India and another between Chennai and Bangalore. In August 2020, Japan extended a 50 billion yen emergency loan and a 1 billion yen grant to India for developing its health infrastructure. After Prime Minister Suga took over, he assured India that the thrust on Indo-Japanese relations would continue unaltered. So far, the Quad countries have been working together to counter China without creating an overtly anti-Beijing alliance. In the past, they have held joint military exercises and discussed cooperation in counter-terrorism, maritime security, measures against fighting COVID-19, emerging and critical technologies and establishing resilient supply chains (bypassing China) in critical goods.Tomorrow’s meeting is also likely to discuss financing arrangements to support increased manufacturing capacity in India for supply of coronavirus vaccines to other countries. Also read: EU concludes new investment agreement with China defying USA. China’s attitude towards the Quad has varied from dismissing it as “sea foam” to calling it as an “Asian or Indo-Pacific NATO”. China thinks that the Quad countries can’t gang up against her as their interests are too intertwined with China and ultimately the US attempts would be frustrated. The Quad countries have to move forward to convey a common resolve (e.g. joint statements)on China’s aggression against member countries and frontline ASEAN states such as Philippines, Vietnam and others. With inclusion of UK, EU and Asian countries, they need to act on building new supply chains, denial of sensitive technologies to and boycotting of China made telephone, power and other infrastructural equipment impinging on their national security. Similarly, they need to deepen their cooperation in maritime security through coordinated operations, access to their military facilities, sharing of experiences and assist in building their collective military and technological resilience. Only then will China take the Quad seriously. #Quad #UnitedStates #JoeBiden #China #USChinaTies #India .

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riendship%20with%20Russia%20and%20disengagement%20of%20the%20Chinese%20troops%20from%20the%20remaining%20friction%20points%20in%20Ladakh.%20Chinese%20Foreign%20Minister%20Wang%20Yi%20had%20suggested%20earlier%20that%20Beijing%20and%20New%20Delhi%20should%20stop%20undercutting%20each%20other%20and%20create%20enabling%20conditions%20by%20expanding%20bilateral%20cooperation%20to%20resolve%20the%20border%20issue.%20After%20the%20Japanese%20Prime%20Minister%20Suga%u2019s%20phone%20call%20with%20Prime%20Minister%20Modi%20on%20March%209%2C%20India%20took%20the%20decision%20that%20there%20was%20value%20in%20elevating%20the%20Quad%20to%20the%20highest%20level.\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":63,\"data\":{\"text\":\"%3Cstrong%3EAlso%20read%3A%20%3C/strong%3E%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/why-the-chinese-president-xi-jinping-is-so-insecure%22%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhy%20the%20Chinese%20President%20Xi%20Jinping%20is%20so%20insecure%3F%3C/strong%3E%3C/a%3E\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":538,\"data\":{\"text\":\"Japan%20is%20our%20major%20economic%20partner%20and%20in%202018-19%2C%20it%20spent%20%24%204.9%20billion%20on%20its%20development%20assistance%20to%20India.%20Japan%20is%20funding%20the%20high-speed%20rail%20link%20between%20Mumbai%20and%20Ahmedabad%2C%20a%20dedicated%20freight%20corridor%20in%20Western%20India%20and%20another%20between%20Chennai%20and%20Bangalore.%20In%20August%202020%2C%20Japan%20extended%20a%2050%20billion%20yen%20emergency%20loan%20and%20a%201%20billion%20yen%20grant%20to%20India%20for%20developing%20its%20health%20infrastructure.%20After%20Prime%20Minister%20Suga%20took%20over%2C%20he%20assured%20India%20that%20the%20thrust%20on%20Indo-Japanese%20relations%20would%20continue%20unaltered.\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":565,\"data\":{\"text\":\"So%20far%2C%20the%20Quad%20countries%20have%20been%20working%20together%20to%20counter%20China%20without%20creating%20an%20overtly%20anti-Beijing%20alliance.%20In%20the%20past%2C%20they%20have%20held%20joint%20military%20exercises%20and%20discussed%20cooperation%20in%20counter-terrorism%2C%20maritime%20security%2C%20measures%20against%20fighting%20COVID-19%2C%20emerging%20and%20critical%20technologies%20and%20establishing%20resilient%20supply%20chains%20%28bypassing%20China%29%20in%20critical%20goods.Tomorrow%u2019s%20meeting%20is%20also%20likely%20to%20discuss%20financing%20arrangements%20to%20support%20increased%20manufacturing%20capacity%20in%20India%20for%20supply%20of%20coronavirus%20vaccines%20to%20other%20countries.\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":71,\"data\":{\"text\":\"%3Cstrong%3EAlso%20read%3A%20%3C/strong%3E%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/eu-concludes-new-investment-agreement-with-china-defying-usa%22%3E%3Cstrong%3EEU%20concludes%20new%20investment%20agreement%20with%20China%20defying%20USA%3C/strong%3E%3C/a%3E\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":292,\"data\":{\"text\":\"China%u2019s%20attitude%20towards%20the%20Quad%20has%20varied%20from%20dismissing%20it%20as%20%u201Csea%20foam%u201D%20to%20calling%20it%20as%20an%20%u201CAsian%20or%20Indo-Pacific%20NATO%u201D.%20China%20thinks%20that%20the%20Quad%20countries%20can%u2019t%20gang%20up%20against%20her%20as%20their%20interests%20are%20too%20intertwined%20with%20China%20and%20ultimately%20the%20US%20attempts%20would%20be%20frustrated.\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":741,\"data\":{\"text\":\"The%20Quad%20countries%20have%20to%20move%20forward%20to%20convey%20a%20common%20resolve%20%28e.g.%20joint%20statements%29on%20China%u2019s%20aggression%20against%20member%20countries%20and%20frontline%20ASEAN%20states%20such%20as%20Philippines%2C%20Vietnam%20and%20others.%20With%20inclusion%20of%20UK%2C%20EU%20and%20Asian%20countries%2C%20they%20need%20to%20act%20on%20building%20new%20supply%20chains%2C%20denial%20of%20sensitive%20technologies%20to%20and%20boycotting%20of%20China%20made%20telephone%2C%20power%20and%20other%20infrastructural%20equipment%20impinging%20on%20their%20national%20security.%20Similarly%2C%20they%20need%20to%20deepen%20their%20cooperation%20in%20maritime%20security%20through%20coordinated%20operations%2C%20access%20to%20their%20military%20facilities%2C%20sharing%20of%20experiences%20and%20assist%20in%20building%20their%20collective%20military%20and%20technological%20resilience.%20Only%20then%20will%20China%20take%20the%20Quad%20seriously.\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":57,\"data\":{\"text\":\"%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23Quad%22%20data-user-id%3D%22VBwhqdsDGbEw%22%20href%3D%22/topic/quad%22%3E%23Quad%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23UnitedStates%22%20data-user-id%3D%22Lgr3hTOPJ0yv%22%20href%3D%22/topic/unitedstates%22%3E%23UnitedStates%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23JoeBiden%22%20data-user-id%3D%22tLOXw4T5mTfp%22%20href%3D%22/topic/joebiden%22%3E%23JoeBiden%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23China%22%20data-user-id%3D%22gtTvlJMpH5eQ%22%20href%3D%22/topic/china%22%3E%23China%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23USChinaTies%22%20data-user-id%3D%22JAyGdeTBJElG%22%20href%3D%22/topic/uschinaties%22%3E%23USChinaTies%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23India%22%20data-user-id%3D%22Bq4MmUPrXF8p%22%20href%3D%22/topic/india%22%3E%23India%3C/a%3E%26nbsp%3B\"}}],\"rawState\":\"It was announced last week that the Quad (a grouping of USA, Japan, India and Australia) would be meeting virtually at the highest level on 12 March, departing from its earlier practice of meeting at the Foreign Ministers level. What has suddenly happened to justify such a major elevation?After taking over, the Biden administration has affirmed that it would have “extreme competition” with China and hold Beijing accountable for its human rights abuses, unfair economic policies and aggression against its neighbours.Also Read: <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/india/how-president-biden-will-confront-china-474475/\\\">How Joe Biden will confront China</a>&nbsp;In his phone conversation with the Chinese President Xi Jingping on February 11, the US President<a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/usa/in-message-to-china-joe-biden-to-meet-australia-india-japan-pms-413478/\\\"> Joe Biden</a> had conveyed his concerns about China’s political persecution in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, aggressive actions against USA’s allies and partners and unfair economic policies. Dismissing these, Chinese President Xi Jingping has continued to implement a harsh national security law in Hong Kong eroding the foundations of democracy and brazen assaults on the human rights of China’s ethnic minorities such as Uighurs, Tibetans and others calling these as China’s internal affair.Also read: <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/india/indo-us-relations-under-joe-biden-looking-into-the-crystal-ball-440576/\\\">Indo-US relations under Joe Biden: Looking into the crystal ball</a>With a view to pressurise Japan to distance itself from the USA, China’s coastguard vessels have been making repeated forays near the Diaoyus islands in East China Sea claimed by Japan. Similarly, China has continued its trade boycott of Australia by banning exports of its barley, wheat, cotton, iron ore, wines and other items.Mounting similar pressure on India, China is dithering to withdraw its troops from areas occupied after April, 2020 in Demchok, Gogra, Hot Springs and Depsang plains.Also Read: <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/india/quad-all-set-to-touch-new-heights-with-friday-summit-388648/\\\">Quad all set to touch new heights with Friday summit</a>With a view to dialogue with Beijing on these issues from a position of strength, President Biden has decided to elevate the Quad to the highest level to send an unambiguous signal to China. USA is considering to organise a comprehensive meeting with China at Alaska or another location at a high level. Underlining Quad’s importance, a US State Department spokesman stated that the Quad was well equipped to deal with the world’s urgent challenges though its format was “not about any single competitor”(not to isolate China). USA is currently deputing its Secretary of State and Defence Secretary to the Quad countries and potential new members such as South Koreato consult them on areas of common concern.India was reportedly the last country among the Quad to agree to its elevation as it carefully considered how it would impact its traditional friendship with Russia and disengagement of the Chinese troops from the remaining friction points in Ladakh. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had suggested earlier that Beijing and New Delhi should stop undercutting each other and create enabling conditions by expanding bilateral cooperation to resolve the border issue. After the Japanese Prime Minister Suga’s phone call with Prime Minister Modi on March 9, India took the decision that there was value in elevating the Quad to the highest level.Also read: <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/india/why-the-chinese-president-xi-jinping-is-so-insecure-636790/\\\">Why the Chinese President Xi Jinping is so insecure?</a>Japan is our major economic partner and in 2018-19, it spent $ 4.9 billion on its development assistance to India. Japan is funding the high-speed rail link between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, a dedicated freight corridor in Western India and another between Chennai and Bangalore. In August 2020, Japan extended a 50 billion yen emergency loan and a 1 billion yen grant to India for developing its health infrastructure. After Prime Minister Suga took over, he assured India that the thrust on Indo-Japanese relations would continue unaltered.So far, the Quad countries have been working together to counter China without creating an overtly anti-Beijing alliance. In the past, they have held joint military exercises and discussed cooperation in counter-terrorism, maritime security, measures against fighting COVID-19, emerging and critical technologies and establishing resilient supply chains (bypassing China) in critical goods.Tomorrow’s meeting is also likely to discuss financing arrangements to support increased manufacturing capacity in India for supply of coronavirus vaccines to other countries.Also read: <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/usa/eu-concludes-new-investment-agreement-with-china-defying-usa-574533/\\\">EU concludes new investment agreement with China defying USA</a>China’s attitude towards the Quad has varied from dismissing it as “sea foam” to calling it as an “Asian or Indo-Pacific NATO”. China thinks that the Quad countries can’t gang up against her as their interests are too intertwined with China and ultimately the US attempts would be frustrated.The Quad countries have to move forward to convey a common resolve (e.g. joint statements)on China’s aggression against member countries and frontline ASEAN states such as Philippines, Vietnam and others. With inclusion of UK, EU and Asian countries, they need to act on building new supply chains, denial of sensitive technologies to and boycotting of China made telephone, power and other infrastructural equipment impinging on their national security. Similarly, they need to deepen their cooperation in maritime security through coordinated operations, access to their military facilities, sharing of experiences and assist in building their collective military and technological resilience. Only then will China take the Quad seriously.<a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#Quad\\\" data-user-id=\\\"VBwhqdsDGbEw\\\" href=\\\"/topic/quad\\\">#Quad</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#UnitedStates\\\" data-user-id=\\\"Lgr3hTOPJ0yv\\\" href=\\\"/topic/unitedstates\\\">#UnitedStates</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#JoeBiden\\\" data-user-id=\\\"tLOXw4T5mTfp\\\" href=\\\"/topic/joebiden\\\">#JoeBiden</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#China\\\" data-user-id=\\\"gtTvlJMpH5eQ\\\" href=\\\"/topic/china\\\">#China</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#USChinaTies\\\" data-user-id=\\\"JAyGdeTBJElG\\\" href=\\\"/topic/uschinaties\\\">#USChinaTies</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#India\\\" data-user-id=\\\"Bq4MmUPrXF8p\\\" href=\\\"/topic/india\\\">#India</a>&nbsp;\",\"time\":1615456520156,\"strCount\":5454,\"isLegacyPost\":false}

<ul><li>&nbsp;The first-ever virtual Quad leaders’ summit is on Friday</li><li>Biden administration has affirmed that it would have “extreme competition” with China</li><li>US has decided to elevate the Quad to the highest level to send an unambiguous signal to China</li></ul>

Why%20Quad%20has%20been%20elevated%3F%20

Quad

US President Joe Biden signed an executive order on 24 February asking for a broad review of the American supply chains in four critical areas, i.e. semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, electric batteries and rare earth elements. The President has directed augmenting the domestic manufacture and shifting supply chains of these items among the USA’s trusted friends and partners.  . The USA, India and other countries have been facing critical shortages of microchips required by the auto, consumer electricals, mobile phones and other industries forcing many companies to suspend a part of their production. Reasons for the chip shortage include supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 in several countries including China, Japan, South Korea and others, winter storms in Texas, the USA where several chip manufacturing plants are located, a pre-pandemic trend towards lower inventory and the impact of US sanctions on the Chinese companies for supply of chips. Also Read | China dictating terms to US' allies; the latter hope Joe Biden wouldn't play into Beijing's hands. A microchip is a small piece of silicon embedded in semiconductors, with electrical circuits, that can hold large quantities of information, perform mathematical and other logical operations. USA, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are the world leaders in making semiconductors.  . Semiconductor manufacturing is a highly skilled and capital-intensive process. It spends 15% or more of its annual revenues on research and development (R&D); each generation of technology typically has a life span of 2-4 years; manufacturers work in tandem with foundries and chip designers across the international borders to adopt new techniques. USA’s global technological leadership from the 1940s to 1960s depended on its advanced nuclear weapons. In the 1970s, its lead shifted to smart weapons based on new technologies like microchips. Microchips are used in a wide array of military equipment such as advanced fighter and stealth aircraft, artificial intelligence (AI) based weapons like drones, autonomous vehicles, radars, missiles, aircraft carriers, informationised war besides consumer electronics, robots, mobile phones and many others. China has been making huge investments in the last 40 years to develop indigenous capabilities in the newly emerging technologies like semiconductors and microchips, 5G, AI, quantum computing, new materials, electric batteries, financial technologies and others. Recently, it has decided to provide financial support to 100 leading tech companies and 1000 firms in upstream and downstream industrial chains. With support from South Korean and Taiwanese experts, it is setting up 18 fabrication units to make a range of semiconductors and microchips.  . While China has been able to develop systems or solution applications of technologies, it had had only limited success in mastering core technologies like semiconductors and microchips (it can make chips of 7 nanometres and more but not smaller ones which are more powerful and efficient and required in strategic applications, like aircraft or space vehicles).  . The reasons for its failure include lack of protection of intellectual property, inability to build a highly skilled workforce, lack of global R & D networks and others. In 2020, China spent about $ 300 billion, more than its defence budget, on imports of semiconductors and microchips from the USA and other countries (purchasing about 80% of its requirement). The USA is determined to deny the advanced semiconductors and microchips manufacturing capabilities to China to stay ahead in the global competition. President Biden is considering a dual-track approach. First, the USA and its allies would increase their spending on R & D in these technologies and vastly outspend against China. USA is presently spending 0.6% (of its GDP) on federal support for R & D against 1.2% under President Reagan (it went down after the end of the Cold War in 1991). China is increasing it to 2.5% of its GDP till 2025. Second, the Biden administration is considering establishing different alliances with its allies and partners in the areas of export control, technical standards, AI, biotechnology, 5G, and surveillance technologies to establish common strategies and rules for blocking the export of these technologies to China. Trump administration’s endeavours in this area were less successful as China was able to obtain these materials from South Korea, Taiwan and others. Also Read | Why the Chinese President Xi Jinping is so insecure?. China has warned that such alliances would violate the principles of fair competition and market economy and it would punish the concerned countries through curbs on the supply of rare earths (minerals indispensable for manufacturing mobile phones, electronics and military equipment) and other measures. China took such steps against Japan in 2010, South Korea in 2013 and Australia and India recently whenever it felt that they had taken measures against its strategic interests. Whether the USA’s allies and partners would join in enforcing these sanctions on China remains to be seen. The semiconductor industry has asked the Biden administration to lift the sanctions applied by the Trump administration except on few critical technologies and assist their R & D efforts through more federal funds. They fear that their manufacturing may become unsustainable if they are denied access to the Chinese market. Also Read | Current signals indicate that the USA-China rivalry will continue unabated. Though many global semiconductor companies have their R&D centres in India, where cutting-edge research work takes place, most semiconductors and chips used in India, are imported from China, Taiwan and South Korea. Some attempts were made in the past to set up a wafer (semiconductor) manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh but the project could not take off due to funding issues and working out a viable business model including the availability of assured demand. India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology has on 15 December, 2020 invited expressions of interest from well-established Indian and foreign manufacturers of semiconductors, foundries and consortia for setting up manufacturing facilities or their acquisition from abroad.  Indian Electronics and Semiconductors Association (IESA) are working on setting up 1000 start-ups in these technologies.  . Also Read | China’s motivations in seeking thaw in its strained ties with India. The Indian government has recognised that an ‘Atamnirbhar Bharat’ can’t depend on imports of these vital materials on foreign countries and India has to be self-reliant in this strategic field. The government will have to play a lead role, in the beginning, to help in arranging necessary investments, provision of essential facilities and assurance of demand to this industry like South Korea, China and other countries until it becomes self-sustaining. #USChinaTies #UnitedStates #China #Business #trade .

<ul><li>Biden signed an executive order on 24 February asking for a broad review of the American supply chains in four critical areas</li><li>He has directed augmenting the domestic manufacture and shifting supply chains of these items among the USA’s trusted friends and partners</li><li>Reasons for the chip shortage include supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 in several countries including China, Japan, South Korea and others</li></ul>

How%20US%20and%20China%20are%20competing%20over%20semiconductors%20and%20microchips

As the US is formulating a new strategy to increase all round pressure on China with help of its allies and partners, China has taken some steps to initiate a thaw in its fractured ties with India. Disengagement of troops from Pangong Tso was the first step and now it has been followed up with a phone call between the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi and India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar February 26. Given that both countries have published separate statements suggest that there were important differences in the tone and tenor of their positions. Wang proposed that now that the two militaries had completed the disengagement of troops in Pangong Tso, China and India could resume normal bilateral ties. Minister Jaishankar made it clear that India would not allow China to pocket the gains of its illegal occupation in Gogra, Hot Springs and other areas and that “normalcy and a border dispute cannot run parallelly as Beijing wants”. Earlier, an Indian External Affairs Ministry official had stated that disengagement from Pangong Tso was “a significant first step towards resolving the remaining issues with China along the LAC.”. Also Read| Current signals indicate that the USA-China rivalry will continue unabated. Wang Yi, in the traditional Chinese style, blamed India for “having wavered and gone in reverse” from its earlier stand of setting aside the resolution of the border issue from strengthening the bilateral ties in economic and other fields. Jaishankar stated that the “boundary question may take time to resolve but the disturbance of peace and tranquillity including by violence, will inevitably have a damaging effect on the relationship”- a line considered direct and blunt. The two Foreign ministers agreed to establish a hotline for timely communication and exchange of views. Some Chinese commentators, close to their government, have been writing that India should balance its close ties with the USA and those with China. “India should downplay geopolitical issues and just as it has embraced the QUAD (USA, Japan, Australia and India) framework, it should work on deepening cooperation among the BRICS (group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries”, they have stated. . Also Read | Why the Chinese President Xi Jinping is so insecure?. India took over BRICS’s chairmanship for 2021 from Russia on 15 February. India will host the BRICS summit later this year but its date and venue are yet to be decided. The acronym BRIC was suggested by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs for rapidly growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Since their first meeting in 2009, the group has expanded to include South Africa and has held annual meetings. . In 2014, with a view to institutionalise their economic cooperation, the five countries established the New Development Bank (NDB) and a Contingent Reserve Arrangement facility to provide protection against global liquidity pressures. NDB has funded 44 projects worth more than $ 12 billion including 8 projects worth $ 3.2 billion in India. Also Read| China dictating terms to US' allies; the latter hope Joe Biden wouldn't play into Beijing's hands. For China, the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are instrumentalities to convey to the USA that if the latter is the leader of Group of 7, China is the leader of the emerging economies and the developing world and while USA’s influence in the global economy and world order is waning, that of China is expanding. What lessons should India draw from these Chinese moves? . First, that China is under considerable pressure due to the US President Biden’s recent moves to formulate a new policy to win the strategic competition with China. Second, India will play an important role in shaping up of USA’s strategy to contain China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific (IP) and deepening of Quad’s activities. . China is trying to drive a wedge between the USA and India by reminding India of its traditional policy of strategic independence and resuming normal bilateral ties with China now that disengagement has been completed in Pangong Tso. Its objective is to achieve tactical peace with India without sacrificing any further territorial gains made in Ladakh post-April 2020. What makes China so sanguine that it would succeed in achieving this bargain? China thinks that India would be ready to seek peace to curtail its burden of defence expenditure. Also, the prospects of peace and stability on its northern borders and increasing economic engagement with Beijing would persuade New Delhi to strike a deal. It won’t be surprising if Beijing had a hand in persuading the Pakistan army to agree to a ceasefire along the LOC announced on February 25 to sweeten this deal further. China attaches considerable importance to the expansion of BRICS’s activities, as it is a trans-regional group with participation of emerging economies from Asia, Africa and Latin America with prominent role played by her. In August 2017, China had agreed to pull back its troops from Doklam before a BRICS Summit in Xiamen, China from 3-5 September, 2017 to ensure the participation of Indian PM Narendra Modi in the summit. Whether it would agree to pull back its troops from other occupied areas such as Gogra, Hot Springs and others, to ensure the success of the next BRICS summit, remains to be seen. Also Read| US Presidential Election 2020: Who will be better for India, Trump or Biden. India is on the right track to insist on disengagement and de-escalation of troops from all areas occupied by China after post-April 2020. India should continue its present policy of deepening strategic engagement with the USA, UK, France, Japan, Australia and other countries both in and outside the Quad. . Past experience has shown that China agrees to make concessions when faced with mounting external and internal pressures. India must demonstrate that it would not allow Beijing to retain the gains of its deceptive transgressions in the Indian territories anymore. #IndiaChinaRelations #IndiaChinaBorderIssues #UnitedStates #India #China .

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20the%20Quad.%26nbsp%3B\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":263,\"data\":{\"text\":\"Past%20experience%20has%20shown%20that%20China%20agrees%20to%20make%20concessions%20when%20faced%20with%20mounting%20external%20and%20internal%20pressures.%20India%20must%20demonstrate%20that%20it%20would%20not%20allow%20Beijing%20to%20retain%20the%20gains%20of%20its%20deceptive%20transgressions%20in%20the%20Indian%20territories%20anymore.\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":73,\"data\":{\"text\":\"%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23IndiaChinaRelations%22%20data-user-id%3D%22OTAdO9ZdOtTC%22%20href%3D%22/topic/indiachinarelations%22%3E%23IndiaChinaRelations%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23IndiaChinaBorderIssues%22%20data-user-id%3D%22QcuIyfAPrcop%22%20href%3D%22/topic/indiachinaborderissues%22%3E%23IndiaChinaBorderIssues%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23UnitedStates%22%20data-user-id%3D%22Lgr3hTOPJ0yv%22%20href%3D%22/topic/unitedstates%22%3E%23UnitedStates%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23India%22%20data-user-id%3D%22Bq4MmUPrXF8p%22%20href%3D%22/topic/india%22%3E%23India%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23China%22%20data-user-id%3D%22gtTvlJMpH5eQ%22%20href%3D%22/topic/china%22%3E%23China%3C/a%3E%26nbsp%3B\"}}],\"rawState\":\"As the <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/india/how-president-biden-will-confront-china-474475/\\\">US is formulating a new strategy </a>to increase all round pressure on China with help of its allies and partners, China has taken some steps to initiate a thaw in its fractured ties with India. Disengagement of troops from Pangong Tso was the first step and now it has been followed up with a phone call between the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi and India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar February 26. Given that both countries have published separate statements suggest that there were important differences in the tone and tenor of their positions.Wang proposed that now that the two militaries had completed the disengagement of troops in Pangong Tso, China and India could resume normal bilateral ties. Minister Jaishankar made it clear that India would not allow China to pocket the gains of its illegal occupation in Gogra, Hot Springs and other areas and that “normalcy and a border dispute cannot run parallelly as Beijing wants”. Earlier, an Indian External Affairs Ministry official had stated that disengagement from Pangong Tso was “a significant first step towards resolving the remaining issues with China along the LAC.”Also Read| <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/usa/current-signals-indicate-that-the-usa-china-rivalry-will-continue-unabated-102069/\\\">Current signals indicate that the USA-China rivalry will continue unabated</a>Wang Yi, in the traditional Chinese style, blamed India for “having wavered and gone in reverse” from its earlier stand of setting aside the resolution of the border issue from strengthening the bilateral ties in economic and other fields. Jaishankar stated that the “boundary question may take time to resolve but the disturbance of peace and tranquillity including by violence, will inevitably have a damaging effect on the relationship”- a line considered direct and blunt. The two Foreign ministers agreed to establish a hotline for timely communication and exchange of views.Some Chinese commentators, close to their government, have been writing that India should balance its close ties with the USA and those with China. “India should downplay geopolitical issues and just as it has embraced the QUAD (USA, Japan, Australia and India) framework, it should work on deepening cooperation among the BRICS (group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries”, they have stated.&nbsp;Also Read | <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/india/why-the-chinese-president-xi-jinping-is-so-insecure-636790/\\\">Why the Chinese President Xi Jinping is so insecure?</a>India took over BRICS’s chairmanship for 2021 from Russia on 15 February. India will host the BRICS summit later this year but its date and venue are yet to be decided. The acronym BRIC was suggested by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs for rapidly growing economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Since their first meeting in 2009, the group has expanded to include South Africa and has held annual meetings.&nbsp;In 2014, with a view to institutionalise their economic cooperation, the five countries established the New Development Bank (NDB) and a Contingent Reserve Arrangement facility to provide protection against global liquidity pressures. NDB has funded 44 projects worth more than $ 12 billion including 8 projects worth $ 3.2 billion in India.Also Read| <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/usa/china-dictating-terms-to-us-allies-the-latter-hope-joe-biden-wouldnt-play-into-beijings-hands-256011/\\\">China dictating terms to US' allies; the latter hope Joe Biden wouldn't play into Beijing's hands</a>For China, the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are instrumentalities to convey to the USA that if the latter is the leader of Group of 7, China is the leader of the emerging economies and the developing world and while USA’s influence in the global economy and world order is waning, that of China is expanding.What lessons should India draw from these Chinese moves?&nbsp;First, that China is under considerable pressure due to the US President Biden’s recent moves to formulate a new policy to win the strategic competition with China. Second, India will play an important role in shaping up of USA’s strategy to contain China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific (IP) and deepening of Quad’s activities.&nbsp;China is trying to drive a wedge between the USA and India by reminding India of its traditional policy of strategic independence and resuming normal bilateral ties with China now that disengagement has been completed in Pangong Tso. Its objective is to achieve tactical peace with India without sacrificing any further territorial gains made in Ladakh post-April 2020.What makes China so sanguine that it would succeed in achieving this bargain? China thinks that India would be ready to seek peace to curtail its burden of defence expenditure. Also, the prospects of peace and stability on its northern borders and increasing economic engagement with Beijing would persuade New Delhi to strike a deal. It won’t be surprising if Beijing had a hand in persuading the Pakistan army to agree to a ceasefire along the LOC announced on February 25 to sweeten this deal further.China attaches considerable importance to the expansion of BRICS’s activities, as it is a trans-regional group with participation of emerging economies from Asia, Africa and Latin America with prominent role played by her. In August 2017, China had agreed to pull back its troops from Doklam before a BRICS Summit in Xiamen, China from 3-5 September, 2017 to ensure the participation of Indian PM Narendra Modi in the summit. Whether it would agree to pull back its troops from other occupied areas such as Gogra, Hot Springs and others, to ensure the success of the next BRICS summit, remains to be seen.Also Read| <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/india/us-presidential-election-2020-who-will-be-better-for-india-trump-or-biden-617108/\\\">US Presidential Election 2020: Who will be better for India, Trump or Biden</a>India is on the right track to insist on disengagement and de-escalation of troops from all areas occupied by China after post-April 2020. India should continue its present policy of deepening strategic engagement with the USA, UK, France, Japan, Australia and other countries both in and outside the Quad.&nbsp;Past experience has shown that China agrees to make concessions when faced with mounting external and internal pressures. India must demonstrate that it would not allow Beijing to retain the gains of its deceptive transgressions in the Indian territories anymore.<a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#IndiaChinaRelations\\\" data-user-id=\\\"OTAdO9ZdOtTC\\\" href=\\\"/topic/indiachinarelations\\\">#IndiaChinaRelations</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#IndiaChinaBorderIssues\\\" data-user-id=\\\"QcuIyfAPrcop\\\" href=\\\"/topic/indiachinaborderissues\\\">#IndiaChinaBorderIssues</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#UnitedStates\\\" data-user-id=\\\"Lgr3hTOPJ0yv\\\" href=\\\"/topic/unitedstates\\\">#UnitedStates</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#India\\\" data-user-id=\\\"Bq4MmUPrXF8p\\\" href=\\\"/topic/india\\\">#India</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#China\\\" data-user-id=\\\"gtTvlJMpH5eQ\\\" href=\\\"/topic/china\\\">#China</a>&nbsp;\",\"time\":1614416777044,\"strCount\":6085,\"isLegacyPost\":false}

<ul><li>As the US is formulating a new strategy to increase pressure on China, Beijing has taken some steps to initiate a thaw in its fractured ties with India</li><li>Disengagement of troops from Pangong Tso was the first step&nbsp;</li><li>China followed up with a phone call between the Chinese Foreign Minister and India’s External Affairs Minister&nbsp;</li></ul>

China%u2019s%20motivations%20in%20seeking%20thaw%20in%20its%20strained%20ties%20with%20India

IndiaChinaRelations

IndiaChinaBorderIssues

The phone conversation between US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping on February 10, lasting for about two hours, according to the US media reports, gives an inkling into their thoughts and future trajectory of the USA-China relations. While Xi spoke in conciliatory terms underlining the importance of a positive bilateral relationship, Biden raised “fundamental concerns” about China’s unfair economic practices, crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang and its aggressive actions in the region including Taiwan. They exchanged views on checking nuclear weapons proliferation (reference to USA seeking China’s cooperation in containing North Korea’s and Iran’s nuclear weapons programmes) and cooperation on climate change and global pandemics. In regard to the economic and other issues, Biden told Xi that he would pursue “practical, results-oriented engagements to advance the interests of the American people and its allies.”. Xi had been keen to begin a dialogue with the Biden administration early on to repair the bilateral ties, which had reached its lowest level during the Trump administration. He had considered sending his Politburo member and senior diplomat, Yang Jiechi to Washington to interact with Biden team but the latter’s response was cool as President Biden first wanted to consult USA’s allies and partners. Also read: Why the Chinese President Xi Jinping is so insecure?. Visiting the Department of State earlier, Biden had warned that while “we need not have a conflict with China, there would be extreme competition”. Later, it was elaborated, that the competition would be comprehensive to ramp up all-round pressure on Beijing. Biden administration would hold China to account for its political persecution and human rights abuses; on the economic side, it would intensify pressure on Beijing to reform its economy which President Trump tried but failed; tariffs on China’s exports and sanctions on the export of sensitive US technologies to China would continue, for the present. On the military side, the freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and visits of warships to Taiwan Strait have been expanded. . The US army has resumed “Yudh Abhyas” exercise with the Indian army in Rajasthan. Biden administration has made it clear that it would stand up for its allies and partners which face China’s aggression. Biden is proceeding in a systematic manner to consult USA’s allies and partners, important members of the Republican and his own parties and various government departments on the shaping of his new China policy. During a visit to Pentagon last week, Biden announced the setting up of an inter-departmental task force on China headed by Ely Ratner, a well known China specialist, to coordinate the work of various departments dealing with political, economic, technology and military issues and formulate a comprehensive policy to win the competition against China. The Task Force will examine the current deployment of the US intelligence and military assets globally and how these should be reconfigured on the basis of USA’s new foreign policy and security priorities. The new policy will be worked out in consultation with the USA’s allies and partners and also elaborate their role. It will submit a report in four months on a set of recommendations on key priorities and decisions to define the way forward on China related issues. Also read: EU concludes new investment agreement with China defying USA. Earlier, in a telephone conversation on 8 February, President Biden and Prime Minister Modi had agreed to work together for a rule based international order and a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific (IP). Biden had told PM Modi that the USA would build “a stronger regional architecture through the Quad” (USA, Japan, India and Australia) ostensibly to counter China’s influence in the region. A virtual meeting of the Quad Foreign Ministers is taking place today, first after the Biden administration took office. It is believed that President Biden’s remark about the metamorphosis of Quad as a security framework to confront China triggered rethinking in Beijing on immediate disengagement of its military forces in Pangong Tso. President Xi who had been working at dividing the USA led transatlantic alliance by entering into trade and investment agreements with several Asian and European Union states (before Biden’s taking over), took this initiative in the hope that India would not agree to the USA’s proposal (of transfiguration of Quad as a security framework directed against Beijing) and would distance itself from the USA. . Also read: Post-Brexit and post-COVID Britain at crossroads searching a new identity. A thaw in China’s relations with India would permit Beijing to focus its attention exclusively on its competition with the USA, Xi thought. The checkmating of China’s deceptive advance into the Indian territories in Pangong Tso, Galwan Valley, Hot Springs and Gogra Post by our brave armed forces, our efforts to improve the border infrastructure, boost the force and armour strength in the region and firm stand taken by our leadership sent a clear message to China that its deceptive forays would not yield much dividend. Disengagement of troops from Pangong Tso is only a first step and India must take the required steps to ensure that the Chinese troops actually vacate and do not re-enter the agreed areas and it is followed by disengagement from the other territories illegally occupied by China recently. The competition between the USA and China will be long term and depend on whether the USA and its allies can undertake the much needed economic, technological and military renewal to stay ahead of China, whether they can put enough pressure on Beijing to reform its unfair economic practices and thwart latter’s aggression in the region. If they can take new initiatives to put forward an alternative path (other than China’s Belt and Road initiative) for cooperation in economic, technological and strategic fields as China would punish those countries which would side with the USA. President Xi is trying to reduce tensions with countries against which he had provoked conflicts earlier. Besides statements, China will be carefully watching the actual moves of the USA, its allies and partners on the ground. China would continue to build its economic, technological and military capacities in the hope that it would outmatch those of the USA in a few years as it thinks time is on its side. Also, that many allies and partners of the USA would not agree to sacrifice their economic interests with Beijing for supporting the USA to safeguard its global supremacy. #JoeBiden #XiJinping #China #India #UnitedStates #USChinaTies #NarendraModi .  .  .

<ul><li>US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping has a phone conversation &nbsp;on February 10</li><li>They exchanged views on checking nuclear weapons proliferation</li><li>Xi was keen to begin a dialogue with the Biden administration early on to repair the bilateral ties</li></ul>

How%20Joe%20Biden%20will%20confront%20China

NarendraModi

At his Senate confirmation hearing earlier this week, US President Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State, Antony Blinken said that he believed that outgoing President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach on China even if he “did not agree with all his methods”. Blinken added that there was “no doubt China posed the most significant challenge to the USA”; there was a strong foundation to build a bipartisan policy to stand up to Beijing”. He clarified that the Biden administration’s commitment to ensuring that Taiwan can defend itself against any Chinese aggression “will absolutely endure”. Taiwan’s envoy to the USA was invited to President Biden’s swearing in ceremony on 20th January departing from the past practice. . The other cabinet appointees also echoed the same message with Avril Haines, the new intelligence chief saying that “counter-intelligence threat from assertive and aggressive China would be a top priority; the nominee for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticised China’s “horrendous human rights abuses and its stealing of American intellectual property adding that we are prepared to use the full array of tools” to address these offences. The Biden administration nominees have made it clear that sanctions applied by the Trump administration against export of sensitive technologies to China would largely continue (with review of those concerned with non-sensitive technologies); similarly, tariffs on China’s exports would continue for present till these are reviewed in due course. China’s President Xi Jingping’s response to Biden’s proposal of establishing a “united front of allies and partners” has been pre-emptorily aggressive and defiant. Displaying China’s economic power, Xi has created fissures in the transatlantic alliance by quickly signing a trade deal with several Asian countries (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) and a Comprehensive Investment Agreement with the 27 European Union countries before Biden took office. . Xi regime believes that the USA is now deeply riven by partisan conflicts, racial divides and lack of trust in its government and the political system. Its pandemic and recession hit economy would take years to stabilise; the ‘withdrawing’ USA is in no position to come to the succour of its partners there. Several of its allies such as Germany, France, South Korea and others do not have any adverse security interests with Beijing and would not be willing to compromise their economic interests for supporting the USA in its rivalry with Beijing to preserve its global supremacy. Xi’s confidence also stems from China’s strong economic performance in 2020, as it achieved 2.3% GDP growth, the only major economy to do so. Its foreign trade increased to $ 4.65 trillion in 2020, the highest level since 1950, with exports increasing by 18.1% and imports 6.5% over 2019 obtaining a trade surplus of $ 535 billion; even exports to the USA increased by about 8% despite sanctions levied by the Trump administration. China is expected to surpass the US economy in dollar terms by 2028, five years earlier than previously projected. Xi’s belief is that time is on China’s side as the USA would not be able to get itself out of the turmoil; his approach is to stay course on building China’s technological and military power, consolidate its occupation of disputed areas in Hongkong, South China Sea, along the borders with India in Himalayas and quell any dissent at home with a firm hand including minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang. . Xi has assumed direct control of the military and other security agencies. He recently announced a 40% increase in salary to the military personnel to attract more educated persons. There is at present, no opposition to Xi’s continuation in power beyond the two terms, set to expire in 2022. Xi is working to enhance China’s military power to an extent that it would become very difficult for the USA to intervene in China’s near areas in favour of Taiwan or any other country. Current tensions in the US-China relationship reflect the growing anachronism in the liberal international order in which the rising power, i.e. China wants acceptance of its superior standing from the current pre-eminent power, the USA which the latter refuses to concede as it believes that the growing influence of China can be contained with the assistance of its allies and partners. China is threatening USA’s allies and partners, i.e. Australia and India, which are resisting China’s hegemony and trying to entice others who have taken a stand, more independent of the USA. The experience of the past four years of the Trump administration which was most hawkish on China suggests that its economic policies, i.e. imposition of tariffs, sanctions for denial of sensitive technologies, efforts for shifting of global supply chains away from China have had little or no impact on China’s policies. Biden administration wants to pursue the same objectives by seeking cooperation of its allies and partners. It is difficult to say how much these efforts would succeed and with what impact in the absence of the roll out of the China policy of the new Biden administration. China has two main vulnerabilities at present. It has established itself as the low cost manufacturing capital of the world using a bouquet of unfair policies, i.e. low cost credit to its industries, denial of market access to other countries, stealing of foreign technologies and others. Can the Biden administration together with its allies and partners, put enough pressure on Beijing multilaterally or plurilaterally, to amend these policies towards fair international trade?. Secondly, the gap in development of new technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence (AI), new materials and quantum computing between the USA and China is narrowing. China is rapidly developing new weapon systems to project power overseas such as long range bombers, stealth fighters, hypersonic and AI based weapons, aircraft carriers, destroyers and others; China is trying to overcome the disadvantage in quality of its weapon systems by manufacturing and deploying these in bigger numbers. Also, China will have the advantage of proximity in any near military conflicts with the USA. Latter on the other hand has the benefit of its large number of allies, military bases, battle hardened military, superior doctrines and weapon systems. . The biggest challenge for the US credibility now is how soon it can reconcile its internal divisions, put its economy on the path of high growth, leapfrog its leadership in development of emerging technologies and newer generation of weapon systems and convince its allies and partners that it would come to their assistance in a conflict with China. In order for this credibility to be visible and effective, the US would need to redeploy more of its military assets at a number of land and offshore bases, closer to China to deter latter’s aggressive forays. It will need to enhance the economic, technological and military capacities of its allies and partners in the frontline against China. . Though the Biden administration has acknowledged that China is its biggest competitor, it will have to display by its actions that it is prepared to lead and win the competition against an aggressive and rising China. If China perceives that the USA is weak or lacks in determination, it will only expand its growing aggression and hegemony in Asia and later in the world to reshape it more in its favour. #China #USA #USChinaties #JoeBiden #XiJinping .

<ul><li>A number of nominees to Joe Biden’s administration have agreed with outgoing President Donald Trump’s tough stance against China</li><li>President Xi Jingping’s response to Biden’s proposal of establishing a “united front of allies and partners” has been pre-emptorily aggressive and defiant</li><li>Xi’s confidence stems from China’s strong economic performance in 2020, as it achieved 2.3% GDP growth</li></ul>

Current%20signals%20indicate%20that%20the%20USA-China%20rivalry%20will%0Acontinue%20unabated

Beijing, China

Though the New Year has begun, the news filtering from China continues to be worrisome. China’s National People’s Congress passed several amendments in its defence law on December 26, 2020 rubber stamping President Xi Jinping’s proposal of transferring powers for making national defence policy to the Central Military Commission (headed by Xi himself) from the State Council (like the Cabinet). .  . Now the ‘gun’ will be commanded by Xi personally instead of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Participation of other Politburo members in defence matters, which was normal during Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao’s time, will now be formally excluded.  . Other news that has trickled from Beijing, i.e. anti-trust actions against industrialist Jack Ma’s Alibaba group including cancellation of its biggest IPO due to Ma’s disapproval of Xi administration’s policies, the arrest of more than 50 opposition lawmakers and activists in Hongkong recently for alleged violations of the national security law and shifting of the supervision of China’s People’s Armed Police under Xi himself indicate further hardening of the current regime’s authoritarian policies.  . Even earlier, Xi had secured unprecedented powers by getting himself anointed as the ‘core’ of the CCP and his thoughts enshrined in the party’s constitution like Mao. Most China watchers believe that Xi has largely upended the reforms and liberalisation achieved during the years of China’s paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping and his protégés (1979-2012) and gone back to the authoritarian rule of Mao. .  . When China has made huge progress in economic, technological and military fields, why has Xi slowed down the market reforms and concentrated all powers in himself? Why is he so insecure to put millions of Uighurs in ‘concentration camps’ in Xinjiang? .  . Prof. Orville Schell, an American and several other China experts believe that the CCP remains deeply insecure, as its leaders are aware of party’s “historical liabilities” and many wrongs it has committed against the Chinese people and foreigners. For instance, about 60 million Chinese died during the ‘Great Leap Forward’ and the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and early1970s as Mao experimented with his bizarre ideas about collectivisation and tried to get rid of critics; Mao’s aggression against India in 1962 is well documented. Such traumas to the Chinese people and other countries have been administered by Mao’s other powerful successors too. .  . Who can forget the Tiananmen Square massacre of April 1989 when Deng Xiaoping ordered tanks and troops armed with assault rifles to fire at the pro-democracy demonstrators killing several thousands Chinese with thousands more wounded. Similarly, Xi Jinping launched an anti-corruption campaign in 2012, in which more than one lakh persons from the party, military, public companies and others were killed, imprisoned or removed from their jobs, without fair legal process and some for political reasons. .  . Independent accounts indicate that large number of people were killed in Wuhan in early 2020 from Covid-19 as the CCP has blacked out the information completely to give a positive face to its handling of the pandemic. Xi’s aggression against China’s neighbours including India and Australia is still continuing.  . A Chinese astrophysicist and intellectual, Fang Lizhi wrote in 1990 that CCP’s aim is to force the Chinese society to “forget its true history”; any information that is not in the interest of the party can’t be included in any book, document, speech or other medium. Maintaining a “correct” version of history not only requires totalitarian controls but also that the Chinese people have no possibility of exploring, debating or coming to terms with the party’s excesses. If the Chinese people get to know the real face and doings of the party, the CCP can’t stay in power.  . The CCP leaders believe that they can escape the party’s inconvenient past by erasing and hiding its true history as long as they are able to deliver economic welfare to the people. The party has not hesitated to punish or kill its own people whenever the people have protested for reforms, which the CCP leadership found unacceptable. .  . Xi is also more insecure because unlike Mao and Deng, he does not have grassroots support among the masses, party cadres or the armed forces and needs institutional props to augment his power.  . Xi believes that market reforms are threatening the CCP’s hold on the country (spread of corruption, people seeking liberal political changes) and must be pushed back now. Also, that China’s socialist economy and governance structures enable it to undertake long term planning and integration of resources and by pursuing its current policies, China would achieve its ambition of becoming the dominant global power in course of time.  . With his anti-corruption and other purges, Xi has made large number of enemies and he can never be sure where and how his enemies would be plotting against him as they used to against Mao (who survived an assassination attempt). Therefore Xi has to be on constant guard to exterminate any opposition to him anywhere.  . China is changing, as many people have become rich, empowered and aspirational seeking more jobs, education, health and housing facilities. The CCP leaders are making innovative uses of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and others to firewall China from any information, which could threaten the rule of the CCP. A close surveillance is regularly maintained on the behaviour of its people with installation of average of two cameras for one person; any breaches are punished with a scaled system of penalties from losing one’s job to going to prison. .  . Though Xi’s aggressive and unfair policies are causing widespread opposition in many countries, China has become too powerful and big to be pressurised by external powers for amending its domestic behaviour. Internal changes in China like the former Soviet Union would occur domestically and led by its own people. CCP would be celebrating its 100 years history this year; how long the party would continue in power and if and when it would have its own ‘Gorbachev moment’ is anyone’s guess. . #China #XiJinping #JackMa .

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0in%20many%20countries%2C%20China%20has%20become%20too%20powerful%20and%20big%20to%20be%20pressurised%20by%20external%20powers%20for%20amending%20its%20domestic%20behaviour.%20Internal%20changes%20in%20China%20like%20the%20former%20Soviet%20Union%20would%20occur%20domestically%20and%20led%20by%20its%20own%20people.%20CCP%20would%20be%20celebrating%20its%20100%20years%20history%20this%20year%3B%20how%20long%20the%20party%20would%20continue%20in%20power%20and%20if%20and%20when%20it%20would%20have%20its%20own%20%u2018Gorbachev%20moment%u2019%20is%20anyone%u2019s%20guess.%26nbsp%3B\"}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"blockLen\":26,\"data\":{\"text\":\"%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23China%22%20data-user-id%3D%22gtTvlJMpH5eQ%22%20href%3D%22/topic/china%22%3E%23China%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23XiJinping%22%20data-user-id%3D%22MRwnxwPLPJrH%22%20href%3D%22/topic/xijinping%22%3E%23XiJinping%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23JackMa%22%20data-user-id%3D%22dMRcA1QQpv1f%22%20href%3D%22/topic/jack-ma%22%3E%23JackMa%3C/a%3E%26nbsp%3B\"}}],\"rawState\":\"Though the New Year has begun, the news filtering from China continues to be worrisome. China’s National People’s Congress passed several amendments in its defence law on December 26, 2020 rubber stamping President Xi Jinping’s proposal of transferring powers for making national defence policy to the Central Military Commission (headed by Xi himself) from the State Council (like the Cabinet).&nbsp;&nbsp;Now the ‘gun’ will be commanded by Xi personally instead of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Participation of other Politburo members in defence matters, which was normal during Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao’s time, will now be formally excluded.&nbsp;Other news that has trickled from Beijing, i.e. anti-trust actions against industrialist Jack Ma’s Alibaba group including cancellation of its biggest IPO due to Ma’s disapproval of Xi administration’s policies, the arrest of more than 50 opposition lawmakers and activists in Hongkong recently for alleged violations of the national security law and shifting of the supervision of China’s People’s Armed Police under Xi himself indicate further hardening of the current regime’s authoritarian policies.&nbsp;Even earlier, Xi had secured unprecedented powers by getting himself anointed as the ‘core’ of the CCP and his thoughts enshrined in the party’s constitution like Mao. Most China watchers believe that Xi has largely upended the reforms and liberalisation achieved during the years of China’s paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping and his protégés (1979-2012) and gone back to the authoritarian rule of Mao.&nbsp;&nbsp;When China has made huge progress in economic, technological and military fields, why has Xi slowed down the market reforms and concentrated all powers in himself? Why is he so insecure to put millions of Uighurs in ‘concentration camps’ in Xinjiang?&nbsp;&nbsp;Prof. Orville Schell, an American and several other China experts believe that the CCP remains deeply insecure, as its leaders are aware of party’s “historical liabilities” and many wrongs it has committed against the Chinese people and foreigners. For instance, about 60 million Chinese died during the ‘Great Leap Forward’ and the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and early1970s as Mao experimented with his bizarre ideas about collectivisation and tried to get rid of critics; Mao’s aggression against India in 1962 is well documented. Such traumas to the Chinese people and other countries have been administered by Mao’s other powerful successors too.&nbsp;&nbsp;Who can forget the Tiananmen Square massacre of April 1989 when Deng Xiaoping ordered tanks and troops armed with assault rifles to fire at the pro-democracy demonstrators killing several thousands Chinese with thousands more wounded. Similarly, Xi Jinping launched an anti-corruption campaign in 2012, in which more than one lakh persons from the party, military, public companies and others were killed, imprisoned or removed from their jobs, without fair legal process and some for political reasons.&nbsp;&nbsp;Independent accounts indicate that large number of people were killed in Wuhan in early 2020 from Covid-19 as the CCP has blacked out the information completely to give a positive face to its handling of the pandemic. Xi’s aggression against China’s neighbours including India and Australia is still continuing.&nbsp;A Chinese astrophysicist and intellectual, Fang Lizhi wrote in 1990 that CCP’s aim is to force the Chinese society to “forget its true history”; any information that is not in the interest of the party can’t be included in any book, document, speech or other medium. Maintaining a “correct” version of history not only requires totalitarian controls but also that the Chinese people have no possibility of exploring, debating or coming to terms with the party’s excesses. If the Chinese people get to know the real face and doings of the party, the CCP can’t stay in power.&nbsp;The CCP leaders believe that they can escape the party’s inconvenient past by erasing and hiding its true history as long as they are able to deliver economic welfare to the people. The party has not hesitated to punish or kill its own people whenever the people have protested for reforms, which the CCP leadership found unacceptable.&nbsp;&nbsp;Xi is also more insecure because unlike Mao and Deng, he does not have grassroots support among the masses, party cadres or the armed forces and needs institutional props to augment his power.&nbsp;Xi believes that market reforms are threatening the CCP’s hold on the country (spread of corruption, people seeking liberal political changes) and must be pushed back now. Also, that China’s socialist economy and governance structures enable it to undertake long term planning and integration of resources and by pursuing its current policies, China would achieve its ambition of becoming the dominant global power in course of time.&nbsp;With his anti-corruption and other purges, Xi has made large number of enemies and he can never be sure where and how his enemies would be plotting against him as they used to against Mao (who survived an assassination attempt). Therefore Xi has to be on constant guard to exterminate any opposition to him anywhere.&nbsp;China is changing, as many people have become rich, empowered and aspirational seeking more jobs, education, health and housing facilities. The CCP leaders are making innovative uses of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and others to firewall China from any information, which could threaten the rule of the CCP. A close surveillance is regularly maintained on the behaviour of its people with installation of average of two cameras for one person; any breaches are punished with a scaled system of penalties from losing one’s job to going to prison.&nbsp;&nbsp;Though Xi’s aggressive and unfair policies are causing widespread opposition in many countries, China has become too powerful and big to be pressurised by external powers for amending its domestic behaviour. Internal changes in China like the former Soviet Union would occur domestically and led by its own people. CCP would be celebrating its 100 years history this year; how long the party would continue in power and if and when it would have its own ‘Gorbachev moment’ is anyone’s guess.&nbsp;<a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#China\\\" data-user-id=\\\"gtTvlJMpH5eQ\\\" href=\\\"/topic/china\\\">#China</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#XiJinping\\\" data-user-id=\\\"MRwnxwPLPJrH\\\" href=\\\"/topic/xijinping\\\">#XiJinping</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#JackMa\\\" data-user-id=\\\"dMRcA1QQpv1f\\\" href=\\\"/topic/jack-ma\\\">#JackMa</a>&nbsp;\",\"time\":1610262956691,\"strCount\":6217,\"isLegacyPost\":false}

Xi Jinping is insecure because unlike Mao and Deng, he does not have grassroots support among the masses, party cadres or the armed forces and needs institutional props to augment his power.

Why%20the%20Chinese%20President%20Xi%20Jinping%20is%20so%20insecure%3F

JackMa

Brussels, Belgium

The European Union (EU) led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron concluded a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with China on 30th December, 2020 ignoring a request by President-elect Joe Biden’s team in the USA for early consultations on China’s unfair policies. . Discussions on the CAI had been going on for 7 years but China was more focused on meeting USA’s terms for a trade deal making EU negotiators frustrated; situation changed in July 2020 when the Chinese President Xi Jingping decided to accord priority to the EU over a recalcitrant Washington and directed his negotiators to “make enough concessions” to snatch the deal before the German presidency of the EU concluded on 31st December and Biden’s takeover on 20th January, 2021. . Also Read | Ahead of Brussels-China deal signing, EU demands Beijing release citizen journalist Zhang Zhan. Xi realised that USA’s opposition to China was much deeper (USA wants to retain its global dominance) than that of the EU countries and it would be much easier to conclude an investment agreement with them thus dividing the transatlantic alliance. After Biden’s taking over, Xi had been fearing China’s diplomatic isolation due to its crackdowns in Hongkong, Tibet and Xinjiang. . Germany’s Angela Merkel wanted this deal as it would help its car makers and other manufacturers to operate in China without going through the joint ventures with the Chinese partners and sharing their sensitive technologies. She had also been upset with President Trump for his recurrent jibes about Germany not spending 2% of its GDP on its defence and taking several major decisions including reduction in the number of American troops in Germany, without consulting her. . Merkel personally ensured the approval of EU’s 26 Head of States with the dissenting Poland (having close relations with USA) being sidelined. Merkel’s task became easier with the departure of Britain, which had always wanted that Washington’s views should found resonance in the EU decisions. . Under the CAI, the European businesses would get better market access than their American counterparts to China’s market in new energy vehicles (of importance to Germany), health care, telecom, finance and air transportation services. EU was more successful than the USA in obtaining some concessions from China on ending forced technology transfers and publishing a list of subsidies provided to certain sectors annually. . For the first time, China has agreed to open up its services sector partially. How much China would actually implement these decisions remains to be seen, in the absence of any specific monitoring or dispute settlement mechanism. Xi will sell this agreement as an example of his determination to boost economic reforms which he has promised several times but rarely implemented. In view of the EU’s demands, China has agreed to seek ratification of four ILO conventions on forced labour, but no date has been agreed for it. There was no progress on improved labour rights, as China did not agree to allow independent trade unions or give them the right to collectively bargain with the employers. In return China will get relatively free access to the EU market, responsible for 16% of the global economy in 2019. . USA has been disappointed with CAI with its Deputy National Adviser Matthew Pottinger saying that China could hardly be expected to honour labour rights as it was building camps for forced labour in Xinjiang. Political leaders in both parties in the US are stunned that the EU is moving towards a new CAI on the eve of a new administration taking over in Washington. CAI will put added pressure on the Biden administration to convince its European allies in joining it to resist China’s abusive behaviour. . The deal still needs to be approved by the European parliament where some members are very hawkish on China; the European Commission led by its (German) President Ursula von der Leyen is canvassing for supporting this “good and solid” deal saying that it is the “most ambitious outcome that China has ever agreed with any country”. Who benefits from this deal more, EU or China? Probably, China in the short term. Big EU economies such as Germany and France, which have substantial manufacturing and other presence in the Chinese market, will be the long term gainers. After Britain’s departure, the EU is now being driven increasingly by the Franco-German partnership which has become more independent of the USA in its political, economic and strategic outlook. . The deal is a signal that the EU would negotiate its own terms of engagement with China when its interests so demand. USA would push the EU to seek earnest implementation of the forced labour and subsidy issues by China; if the latter renege, the EU would join the USA in putting pressure for the restructuring of China’s unfair policies. . CAI with the EU is part of Xi’s efforts to open up China’s economy selectively, in some areas, to foreign investors from the West encouraging them to set up more manufacturing facilities and take a bigger stake in its market. Xi is trying to pushback USA’s efforts for decoupling and shifting supply chains away from China. CAI, RCEP and efforts to seek new free trade agreements with Japan and South Korea are part of this strategy. . The deal illustrates the difficulties of dealing with an authoritarian China, which is both a strategic rival and lucrative market for most countries. For India and others, the lesson is that the economic interests of other countries would often, be an important determinant in shaping their attitude towards a resurgent China. . Due to shifting power dynamics, the traditional alliances and relationships are in a state of flux and nimble manoeuvrings may be required to clinch agreements on different issues with major countries. #EuropeanUnion #China #JoeBiden #UnitedStates #EmmanuelMacron #AngelaMerkel .

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data-user-id%3D%22tLOXw4T5mTfp%22%20href%3D%22/topic/joebiden%22%3E%23JoeBiden%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23UnitedStates%22%20data-user-id%3D%2268BmsQksQWFV%22%20href%3D%22/topic/united-states%22%3E%23UnitedStates%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23EmmanuelMacron%22%20data-user-id%3D%22lGwFlfm6WP5H%22%20href%3D%22/topic/emmanuel-macron%22%3E%23EmmanuelMacron%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23AngelaMerkel%22%20data-user-id%3D%22A5us0GlIBond%22%20href%3D%22/topic/angela-merkel%22%3E%23AngelaMerkel%3C/a%3E%26nbsp%3B\"}}],\"rawState\":\"The European Union (EU) led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron concluded a <a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/business/eu-and-china-approve-major-investment-deal-419136/\\\">Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with China on 30th December, 2020</a> ignoring a request by President-elect Joe Biden’s team in the USA for early consultations on China’s unfair policies.&nbsp;Discussions on the CAI had been going on for 7 years but China was more focused on meeting USA’s terms for a trade deal making EU negotiators frustrated; situation changed in July 2020 when the Chinese President Xi Jingping decided to accord priority to the EU over a recalcitrant Washington and directed his negotiators to “make enough concessions” to snatch the deal before the German presidency of the EU concluded on 31st December and Biden’s takeover on 20th January, 2021.&nbsp;Also Read |&nbsp;<a target=\\\"_blank\\\" rel=\\\"noopener noreferrer\\\" href=\\\"https://opoyi.com/business/ahead-of-brussels-china-deal-signing-eu-demands-beijing-release-citizen-journalist-zhang-zhan-314563/\\\">Ahead of Brussels-China deal signing, EU demands Beijing release citizen journalist Zhang Zhan</a>Xi realised that USA’s opposition to China was much deeper (USA wants to retain its global dominance) than that of the EU countries and it would be much easier to conclude an investment agreement with them thus dividing the transatlantic alliance. After Biden’s taking over, Xi had been fearing China’s diplomatic isolation due to its crackdowns in Hongkong, Tibet and Xinjiang.&nbsp;Germany’s Angela Merkel wanted this deal as it would help its car makers and other manufacturers to operate in China without going through the joint ventures with the Chinese partners and sharing their sensitive technologies. She had also been upset with President Trump for his recurrent jibes about Germany not spending 2% of its GDP on its defence and taking several major decisions including reduction in the number of American troops in Germany, without consulting her.&nbsp;Merkel personally ensured the approval of EU’s 26 Head of States with the dissenting Poland (having close relations with USA) being sidelined. Merkel’s task became easier with the departure of Britain, which had always wanted that Washington’s views should found resonance in the EU decisions.&nbsp;Under the CAI, the European businesses would get better market access than their American counterparts to China’s market in new energy vehicles (of importance to Germany), health care, telecom, finance and air transportation services. EU was more successful than the USA in obtaining some concessions from China on ending forced technology transfers and publishing a list of subsidies provided to certain sectors annually.&nbsp;For the first time, China has agreed to open up its services sector partially. How much China would actually implement these decisions remains to be seen, in the absence of any specific monitoring or dispute settlement mechanism. Xi will sell this agreement as an example of his determination to boost economic reforms which he has promised several times but rarely implemented.In view of the EU’s demands, China has agreed to seek ratification of four ILO conventions on forced labour, but no date has been agreed for it. There was no progress on improved labour rights, as China did not agree to allow independent trade unions or give them the right to collectively bargain with the employers. In return China will get relatively free access to the EU market, responsible for 16% of the global economy in 2019.&nbsp;USA has been disappointed with CAI with its Deputy National Adviser Matthew Pottinger saying that China could hardly be expected to honour labour rights as it was building camps for forced labour in Xinjiang. Political leaders in both parties in the US are stunned that the EU is moving towards a new CAI on the eve of a new administration taking over in Washington. CAI will put added pressure on the Biden administration to convince its European allies in joining it to resist China’s abusive behaviour.&nbsp;The deal still needs to be approved by the European parliament where some members are very hawkish on China; the European Commission led by its (German) President Ursula von der Leyen is canvassing for supporting this “good and solid” deal saying that it is the “most ambitious outcome that China has ever agreed with any country”.Who benefits from this deal more, EU or China? Probably, China in the short term. Big EU economies such as Germany and France, which have substantial manufacturing and other presence in the Chinese market, will be the long term gainers. After Britain’s departure, the EU is now being driven increasingly by the Franco-German partnership which has become more independent of the USA in its political, economic and strategic outlook.&nbsp;The deal is a signal that the EU would negotiate its own terms of engagement with China when its interests so demand. USA would push the EU to seek earnest implementation of the forced labour and subsidy issues by China; if the latter renege, the EU would join the USA in putting pressure for the restructuring of China’s unfair policies.&nbsp;CAI with the EU is part of Xi’s efforts to open up China’s economy selectively, in some areas, to foreign investors from the West encouraging them to set up more manufacturing facilities and take a bigger stake in its market. Xi is trying to pushback USA’s efforts for decoupling and shifting supply chains away from China. CAI, RCEP and efforts to seek new free trade agreements with Japan and South Korea are part of this strategy.&nbsp;The deal illustrates the difficulties of dealing with an authoritarian China, which is both a strategic rival and lucrative market for most countries. For India and others, the lesson is that the economic interests of other countries would often, be an important determinant in shaping their attitude towards a resurgent China.&nbsp;Due to shifting power dynamics, the traditional alliances and relationships are in a state of flux and nimble manoeuvrings may be required to clinch agreements on different issues with major countries.<a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#EuropeanUnion\\\" data-user-id=\\\"rAdp1qLMHqvh\\\" href=\\\"/topic/european-union\\\">#EuropeanUnion</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#China\\\" data-user-id=\\\"gtTvlJMpH5eQ\\\" href=\\\"/topic/china\\\">#China</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#JoeBiden\\\" data-user-id=\\\"tLOXw4T5mTfp\\\" href=\\\"/topic/joebiden\\\">#JoeBiden</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#UnitedStates\\\" data-user-id=\\\"68BmsQksQWFV\\\" href=\\\"/topic/united-states\\\">#UnitedStates</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#EmmanuelMacron\\\" data-user-id=\\\"lGwFlfm6WP5H\\\" href=\\\"/topic/emmanuel-macron\\\">#EmmanuelMacron</a> <a class=\\\"mention\\\" data-mention=\\\"#AngelaMerkel\\\" data-user-id=\\\"A5us0GlIBond\\\" href=\\\"/topic/angela-merkel\\\">#AngelaMerkel</a>&nbsp;\",\"time\":1609764124870,\"strCount\":5924,\"isLegacyPost\":false}

<ul><li>The EU concluded a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with China on December 30</li><li>The EU, led by &nbsp;German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, ignored a request by Joe Biden’s team for early consultations on China’s unfair policies</li><li>&nbsp;Merkel wanted this deal as it would help its car makers and other manufacturers to operate in China without going through the joint ventures</li></ul>

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Former Ambassador and Secretary to Government of India.  Currently writing on China, Pakistan, US and their relationship with India.

YogeshGupta

Yogesh Gupta

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EU concludes new investment agreement with China defying USA