The deadly conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia-backed separatists in Nagorny Karabakh involves a whole cast of countries competing for influence.
Here is a summary of the international players and what role they could play in resolving the crisis.
Turkey has given full backing to its ally Azerbaijan, raising fears that its armed forces could stage a direct intervention.
Armenia has already claimed that a Turkish fighter jet flying in support of Baku’s forces downed one of its warplanes.
It has accused Turkey of sending mercenaries from Syria as well as military specialists able to fly planes and drones, while Ankara and Azerbaijan deny this.
Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan fits into its “historic project” to create a union of Turkic peoples, an idea promoted by Turkish nationalists, Jean Radvanyi, an academic specialising in post-Soviet geopolitics, told AFP.
“It’s also a way to show Turkey is a growing regional power that is capable of intervening in many theatres of war,” said Radvanyi of Paris’s Inalco university, giving the examples of Syria and Libya.
For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this is an opportunity to rally the nationalist electorate in a “patriotic mobilisation” against Armenia, which the strongman sees as a regional threat and also a historic foe.
Turkey refuses to recognise the genocide of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during World War I.
Turkey is highly unlikely to participate as a mediator in the conflict.
Also read: UN calls for immediate end of fight between Armenia and Azerbaijan
Since the fall of the USSR, Russia has maintained good relations with ex-Soviet Armenia and Azerbaijan, selling weapons to both.
The long-simmering Karabakh conflict with occasional outbursts of deadly fighting is favourable for Russia, said Gela Vasadze, a Georgian political analyst, arguing that it allowed Moscow to “maintain its influence” by acting as an arbiter.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for a ceasefire but Russia’s position is endangered by Turkey’s growing support for Azerbaijan, which could “upset the balance of power”, said Radvanyi.
The researcher said Russia had irked Azerbaijan by supplying “the most sophisticated” weapons to Yerevan, which is a member of a Moscow-led military alliance called the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev criticised this preference for Armenia.
Nevertheless he sees Moscow as holding “numerous levers for negotiation” thanks to significant economic ties with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and their large diasporas in Russia.
Bordering both Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran is keen to act as a mediator but has little chance of taking on the role.
While Azerbaijan is a Shiite country like Iran, its leadership is secular and distrustful of Iran’s religious proselytism and regional ambitions.
In turn, Iran is apprehensive of Azerbaijan’s ties to the large ethnic-Azerbaijani community living in northern Iran, fearing nationalist movements.
Tehran also looks askance at the military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel.
Iran’s leadership has therefore favoured ties with mainly-Christian Armenia, taking part in the construction of roads and gas infrastructure there.
In Vasadze’s view, Iran’s offer to mediate has little chance of success.
Major Western powers have called for an immediate ceasefire.,The United States and France have been involved in negotiations in the conflict for more than 30 years in the “Minsk Group” diplomatic formation that also includes Russia. So far these have been unsuccessful.
In both the US and France, the public discourse is dominated by members of influential Armenian diasporas.
Western countries however have economic ties with energy-rich Azerbaijan, whose gas pipelines contribute to their supplies and where they are involved in development projects.
In recent years, the West has “not really put any pressure on Yerevan and Baku”, Radvanyi said, with the Karabakh conflict “not at the top of agendas”.
It remains to be seen whether the flare-up will reinvigorate diplomatic efforts.
