2020%20had%20been%20a%20year%20of%20an%20unprecedented%20global%20humanitarian%20crisis.%20Possibly%20the%20most%20devastating%20in%20the%20course%20of%20world%20history%20since%20World%20War%20II.%20It%20spat%20venom%20from%20raging%20bushfires%20to%20devastating%20floods%2C%20revolutions%20to%20terrorism%2C%20proxies%20to%20interventionism%2C%20conflict%20to%20coercion%20and%20then%20came%20the%20catastrophic%20coronavirus%20and%20the%20world%20stood%20still.%20It%20led%20to%20the%20global%20%u201Ctriple%20jolt%u201D%20%u2013%20the%20collapse%20of%20health%20care%20systems%20taking%20a%20toll%20of%20near%202%20million%20lives%2C%20shut%20down%20tremors%20from%20containment%20measures%20impacting%20all%20walks%20of%20life%2C%20and%20the%20ensuing%20global%20recession.

%26nbsp%3BThe%20fine%20balance%20between%20%u2018economic%20survival%u2019%20and%20%u2018staying%20alive%u2019%26nbsp%3B%20hung%20through%20a%20fine%20silken%20thread.%20The%20globalised%20interconnected%20world%20only%20accelerated%20and%20magnified%20the%20spread%2C%20shattering%20hopes%20of%20a%20coordinated%20global%20response.%20It%20ushered%20in%20a%20global%20trend%20of%20nationalism%2C%20protectionism%20and%20neo-isolationism%20bringing%20another%20blow%20to%20the%20liberalised%20international%20order.%20Yet%20it%20saw%20the%20rise%20of%20resilient%20global%20leadership%20and%20select%20nations%20like%20India%20exhibiting%20their%20soft%2C%20smart%20and%20sharp%20power%20in%20their%20responses%20to%20the%20crisis.

Even%20before%20the%20pandemic%20the%20global%20order%20and%20balance%20of%20power%20were%20witnessing%20tectonic%20shifts%20in%20great%20power%20politics%20with%20a%20revisionist%20and%20economic%20cum%20military%20turbulent%20rise%20of%20China%2C%20an%20overseas%20adventurist%20and%20self-appointed%20World%20CEO%20with%20an%20America%20First%20USA%20and%20an%20increasingly%20assertive%20Russia%20in%20the%20quest%20for%20competing%20global%20space%20and%20expanding%20spheres%20of%20influence.%20The%20ongoing%20pandemic%20only%20accelerated%20the%20volatility%20and%20complexity%20to%20make%20it%20more%20significant%20and%20enduring.%20The%20pandemic%20altered%20the%20global%20geopolitical%20landscape%2C%20notion%20of%20globalisation%20and%20stressed%20national%20and%20international%20institutions%20to%20their%20breaking%20point.%20It%20also%20saw%20the%20sole%20superpower%20fumble%20and%20falter%20in%20a%20crisis%20situation.

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Adding%20fuel%20to%20the%20fire%20of%20Wuhan%20originated%20Virus%2C%20was%20the%20overt%20Chinese%20belligerence%20under%20President%20Xi%20threatening%20world%20peace%20and%20stability.%20China%u2019s%20strategic%20coercion%20and%20aggressive%20actions%20in%20the%20South%20China%20Sea%2C%20Taiwan%20and%20Himalayas%20only%20stressed%20the%20already%20fragile%20global%20stability.%20Adding%20ambiguity%20and%20uncertainty%20to%20the%20chaos%20is%20the%20change%20in%20US%20Presidency%20with%20shameful%20violence%20in%20Capital%20Hill%20and%20policy%20uncertainties%20of%20the%20new%20dispensation%2C%20Russia%u2019s%20geostrategic%20shift%20and%20deepening%20bonhomie%20with%20China%2C%20and%20China%u2019s%20uncanny%20rise%20to%20the%20global%20stage%20with%20its%20economic%20octopus%20engulfing%20nations%20across%20the%20world.%20The%20most%20recent%20being%20the%20EU-China%20investment%20deal%20and%20RCEP%20agreement%20in%20the%20COVID%20era%20despite%20decoupling%20cries%2C%20thereby%20compromising%20strategic%20security%20to%20economic%20revival.

While%202020%20has%20been%20a%20disastrous%20year%2C%202021%20promises%20to%20be%20the%20defining%20year%20to%20author%20the%20next%20chapter%20of%20global%20history.%20The%20COVID%20killer%20vaccine%20will%20hopefully%20put%20an%20end%20to%20the%20current%20pandemic%20yet%20the%20geopolitics%20of%20post-COVID%20era%20is%20likely%20to%20be%20more%20enduring%20and%20profound.%20The%20geopolitical%20course%20nations%20chart%20in%202021%20will%20define%20the%20world%20we%20would%20live%20in%20over%20the%20next%20few%20decades.

%26nbsp%3BThe%20triangular%20relationships%20between%20the%20USA%2C%20China%20and%20Russia%2C%20be%20it%20restoration%2C%20resetting%20or%20transformation%20will%20define%20the%20global%20geopolitical%20periphery.%20The%20strengthening%20of%20the%20dormant%20Sino-Russian%20arm%20consequent%20to%20the%20tensions%20between%20the%20US%20and%20Russia%20led%20to%20Chinese%20opportunist%20dominance%20and%20transformation%20of%20the%20triangle.%20Post-Cold%20War%2C%20US%20policies%20to%20keep%20Russia%20weak%20and%20dependent%2C%20stemming%20its%20revival%20left%20Russia%20no%20option%20but%20to%20join%20China%20as%20a%20counterbalance%20to%20USA%20behaviour%20as%20the%20sole%20superpower.%20Simultaneously%20the%20mutual%20animosity%20and%20distrust%20between%20China%20and%20USA%20only%20deepened%20and%20created%20turbulence%20in%20this%20arm.%20Thus%20while%20the%20US%20remained%20as%20the%20Apex%20Point%20of%20the%20triangle%20it%20power%20play%20on%20the%20other%20two%20arms%20weakened.%20This%20gave%20the%20confidence%20to%20China%20and%20it%27s%20newfound%20strategic%20coercion%20based%20on%20the%20perception%20that%20it%20had%20greater%20leverage%20both%20economically%20and%20militarily%20over%20the%20USA%20than%20the%20USA%20had%20over%20China%20or%20Russia.%20This%20marked%20the%20arrival%20of%20a%20belligerent%20China%20to%20the%20world%20stage.%20It%20thus%20merits%20a%20review%20and%20resets%20of%20the%20three%20arms%20for%20world%20peace%20and%20prosperity.

%3Cstrong%3EAlso%20read%3A%3C/strong%3E%3Ca%20target%3D%22_blank%22%20rel%3D%22noopener%20noreferrer%22%20href%3D%22https%3A//opoyi.com/indias-security-challenges-how-to-build-a-strong-military-and-learn-from-past-mistakes%22%3E%20India%27s%20security%20challenges%3A%20How%20to%20build%20a%20strong%20military%20and%20learn%20from%20past%20mistakes%3C/a%3E

%26nbsp%3BThe%20most%20defining%20arm%20of%20the%20triangle%20for%20global%20peace%20will%20be%20the%20US-China%20arm.%20The%20stability%20and%20fragility%20paradox%20will%20be%20a%20factor%20of%20Biden%u2019s%20challenge%20of%20balancing%20Obama%u2019s%20engagement%20with%20Trump%u2019s%20deterrence%20against%20the%20hegemonic%20Xi%20led%20China%20thereby%20restraining%20its%20space%20for%20strategic%20coercion.%20China%u2019s%20response%20will%20be%20a%20factor%20of%20multilayered%20and%20multitiered%20global%20approach%20seeking%20greater%20accountability%20of%20its%20rise%20to%20the%20rule-based%20global%20order%20while%20enmeshing%20it%20as%20an%20indispensable%20stakeholder%20in%20the%20global%20commons.

%26nbsp%3BOn%20the%20other%20hand%2C%20the%20US-Russia%20toxic%20relationship%20of%20suspicion%20and%20distrust%20arising%20from%20perceived%20security%20dilemma%2C%20threats%20to%20their%20internal%20affairs%20and%20spheres%20of%20influence%20including%20regime%20change%20needs%20to%20be%20reversed%20at%20both%20ends.%20The%20security%20dilemma%20merits%20greater%20engagement%2C%20communication%20and%20respect%20cum%20understanding%20of%20each%20other%u2019s%20genuine%20security%20concerns.%20The%20extension%20of%20the%20present%20START%20treaty%20culminating%20into%20a%20new%20START%20agreement%20could%20build%20the%20trust%20and%20reduce%20tensions.%20The%20US%20must%20engage%20with%20Russia%20in%20areas%20of%20common%20interests%20and%20give%20impetus%20in%20areas%20where%20Sino-Russia%20policies%20diverge.%20This%20would%20create%20the%20requisite%20stability%20cum%20balance%20in%20the%20shifting%20dynamics%20of%20the%20US-China-Russia%20triangle%2C%20restraining%20the%20Sino-Russia%20arm%20leveraging%20undue%20power%20and%20creating%20turbulence.

%26nbsp%3BThe%20third%20arm%20of%20the%20Sino-Russian%20relationship%20is%20perceived%20more%20like%20a%20marriage%20of%20opportunism%20to%20counterbalance%20US%20hegemony%20and%20an%20offshoot%20of%20the%20west%20led%20punitive%20sanctions.%20It%20has%20however%20developed%20dynamically%20despite%20several%20strategic%20differences%20particularly%20Chinese%20growing%20influence%20in%20the%20Russian%20backyard%20viz%20Central%20Asia%20and%20lack%20of%20political%20integration.%20The%20US-led%20trade%20sanctions%20on%20both%20realigned%20Russia%u2019s%20trade%20with%20China%2C%20while%20China%20became%20a%20principal%20energy%20reciprocator%20from%20Russia.%20More%20importantly%2C%20the%20recent%20EU-China%20investment%20pack%20and%20Russia%u2019s%20energy%20forays%20in%20European%20markets%20have%20diluted%20US%20standing%20and%20global%20call%20for%20decoupling.%20So%20despite%20differences%2C%20the%20Sino-Russia%20partnership%20flourishes%20strategically%20on%20mutually%20beneficial%20political%2C%20economic%20and%20strategic%20security%20interests%20envisioning%20a%20multipolar%20world%20order.

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%26nbsp%3BThe%20key%20player%20in%20this%20new%20triangle%20that%20emerges%20is%20China%20and%20thus%20its%20behaviour%20will%20define%20the%20strategic%20stability.%20Managing%20the%20peaceful%20rise%20of%20China%20will%20be%20the%20defining%20strategic%20challenge%20of%202021%20and%20the%20next%20decade.%20The%20emerging%20Cold%20War%202.0%20of%202020%20must%20give%20space%20to%20%u2018Cold%20Peace%u2019%20of%202021%20by%20balancing%20each%20arm%20of%20the%20triangle%20and%20creating%20space%20for%20furthering%20global%20peace%2C%20stability%20and%20prosperity%20while%20diluting%20the%20scope%20of%20the%20conflict%2C%20revisionism%20and%20antagonism.%20Thus%20space%20needs%20to%20be%20created%20for%20the%20restoration%20of%20the%20global%20economy%2C%20engagement%20on%20global%20common%20like%20public%20health%2C%20environment%20and%20trade%20as%20a%20part%20international%20community%20while%20collective%20deterrence%20through%20cooperative%20partnerships%20must%20arrest%20individual%20hegemonic%20and%20expansionist%20trends.%20In%20such%20a%20dynamic%20interplay%2C%20nations%20will%20have%20to%20reconcile%20their%20historical%20narratives%20and%20pragmatism%20must%20be%20accommodated%20within%20competitive%20frameworks%20of%20a%20newfound%20global%20geostrategic%20framework.

%26nbsp%3BThe%20geostrategic%20reality%20of%202021%20also%20indicates%20that%20both%20the%20economic%20centre%20of%20gravity%20and%20the%20potential%20conflict%20zones%20are%20centered%20around%20Asia.%20Peninsular%20India%20blessed%20by%20its%20geography%2C%20geostrategic%20location%20and%20newly%20found%20soft%2C%20sharp%20and%20hard%20power%20are%20thus%20destined%20to%20play%20a%20larger%20role%20in%20the%20global%20geostrategic%20arena.%20India%u2019s%20balancing%20posture%2C%20foreign%20policy%20resilience%2C%20economic%20potential%20and%20its%20demonstrated%20military%20and%20strategic%20capabilities%20are%20seen%20as%20a%20stabilising%20factor%20against%20global%20turbulence%20and%20competitive%20geopolitics.%26nbsp%3B%20Yet%20India%20faces%20the%20greatest%20challenges%20any%20nation%20would%20face%20in%202021%20of%20defeating%20the%20threat%20from%20two%20C%u2019s%20-%20COVID%20and%20China%20while%20getting%20the%20economy%20back%20on%20track%20of%20revival.%20Adding%20to%20the%20woes%20is%20the%20increasing%20domestic%20dissidence%20and%20polarization%20of%20politics%20leading%20to%20majoritarianism%20and%20intolerance%20which%20remain%20a%20threat%20to%20a%20vibrant%20democracy.

%26nbsp%3BThe%20geopolitical%20path%20India%20treads%20must%20lead%20to%20greater%20multipolarity%20and%20multi%20engagements%2C%20and%20lesser%20of%20multilateralism%20and%20perceived%20alliances.%20Thus%20while%20it%20is%20important%20how%20India%20sees%20itself%20in%20the%20global%20arena%2C%20it%20is%20equally%20important%20to%20be%20sensitive%20to%20how%20the%20external%20world%20looks%20upon%20India%20and%20their%20expectations.%20Its%20foreign%20policy%20initiatives%20must%20thus%20be%20balanced%20from%20the%20lens%20of%20national%20interest%20set%20within%20a%20realist%20understanding%20of%20global%20contradictions%20to%20sustain%20an%20open%2C%20cooperative%20and%20rules-based%20order.%20India%20must%20thus%20leverage%20the%20evolving%20geopolitical%20canvas%2C%20to%20exploit%20the%20opportunities%20based%20on%20strategic%20convergence%20without%20creating%20dependencies%20or%20animosity%20through%20alliances.%20India%20must%20also%20remain%20an%20influencing%20power%20on%20issues%20like%20climate%20change%2C%20balanced%20trade%2C%20niche%20technologies%2C%26nbsp%3B%20and%20collective%20security%20through%20national%20interest-based%20multi%20engagement.

%26nbsp%3BChina%u2019s%20rise%20is%20unique%20as%20it%20is%20aimed%20to%20deny%20any%20strategic%20space%20to%20India%20and%20use%20strategic%20coercion%20as%20a%20tool%20of%20revisionist%20foreign%20policy.%20The%20recent%20Himalayan%20misadventure%20is%20an%20outcome%20of%20this%20manifestation.%20It%20has%20also%20exposed%20India%u2019s%20shortcomings%20in%20its%20strategic%20security%20focus%2C%20defence%20modernisation%20and%20credibility%20of%20conventional%20deterrence.%20India%20must%20realise%20that%20National%20Defence%20is%20the%20foundational%20insurance%20for%20a%20nation%20to%20prosper%20and%20it%20must%20create%20the%20capabilities%20and%20capacities%20to%20do%20so%20as%20a%20time-sensitive%20priority.%20China%u2019s%20rise%20and%20it%u2019s%20military%20intrusion%20has%20endeared%20the%20India-USA%20strategic%20relationship%20even%20though%20certain%20differences%20remain.%20Yet%20this%20relationship%20must%20not%20lead%20to%20dependency%20and%20distancing%20itself%20from%20its%20historically%20trusted%20Russia%20strategic%20bondage%20nor%20be%20perceived%20as%20an%20alliance%20against%20China.%20Its%20resilience%20and%20longevity%20will%20be%20a%20factor%20of%20a%20multi%20engagement%20approach%20based%20on%20fostering%20its%20national%20interest%2C%20in%20a%20world%20of%20multipolarity%20with%20space%20for%20all%20to%20prosper%20in%20peace.

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%26nbsp%3BHowever%2C%20while%20India%20looks%20at%20the%20global%20space%2C%20it%20must%20stymie%20the%20growing%20distrust%20and%20weaning%20away%20of%20strategic%20relationships%20in%20the%20immediate%20neighbourhood.%20India%u2019s%20global%20signature%20is%20intrinsically%20concomitant%20to%20its%20influence%20as%20a%20regional%20player.%20To%20strategically%20gain%20from%20historic%2C%20cultural%20and%20political%20bondages%20we%20need%20to%20give%20more%20to%20reset%20the%20strategic%20imbalance%20in%20the%20neighbourhood.%20India%20must%20strengthen%20its%20foundation%20as%20a%20benevolent%20neighbour%20in%20terms%20of%20economic%20growth%2C%20regional%20security%20and%20development%20to%20sharpen%20its%20efforts%20to%20promote%20regional%20cooperation%20in%20South%20Asia%20and%20the%20IOR.

%26nbsp%3BIndia%u2019s%20foreign%20policy%20in%20the%2021st%20century%20thus%20must%20be%20dominated%20by%20the%20quest%20for%20creating%20an%20enabling%20environment%20in%20the%20world%2C%20which%20allows%20its%20economy%20and%20society%20to%20flourish%2C%20its%20security%20concerns%20addressed%20while%20promoting%20values%20of%20pluralism%2C%20democracy%2C%20secularism%20and%20non-interventionist%20security%20paradigms.%20As%20India%20steadily%20emerges%20on%20the%20global%20stage%20so%20will%20its%20challenges%20increase%20and%20clarity%20of%20its%20choices%20critical.%20It%20would%20require%20clarity%20in%20its%20China%20Policy%2C%20its%20balancing%20the%20US-China-Russia%20strategic%20triangle%2C%20its%20rapprochement%20to%20its%20neighbourhood%20and%20greater%20influence%20in%20the%20global%20institutions%20and%20issues%20of%20global%20common%20like%20environment%20and%20energy.%20It%20must%20take%20its%20leadership%20strides%20at%20a%20pace%20which%20safeguards%20its%20national%20interests%20and%20promotes%20strategic%20autonomy%20in%20the%20long%20run%20without%20creating%20external%20and%20internal%20imbalances.%20This%20would%20require%20a%20whole%20nation%20approach%20with%20%u2018Nation%20Above%20All%u2019%20as%20its%20credo%20in%20a%20dynamically%20evolving%20world%20order%20and%20an%20equally%20challenging%20domestic%20environment.%26nbsp%3B

%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23Geo-politics%22%20data-user-id%3D%22XYcYBW0MhHEl%22%20href%3D%22/topic/geo-politics%22%3E%23Geo-politics%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23India%22%20data-user-id%3D%22Bq4MmUPrXF8p%22%20href%3D%22/topic/india%22%3E%23India%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23UnitedStates%22%20data-user-id%3D%2268BmsQksQWFV%22%20href%3D%22/topic/united-states%22%3E%23UnitedStates%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20class%3D%22mention%22%20data-mention%3D%22%23China%22%20data-user-id%3D%22gtTvlJMpH5eQ%22%20href%3D%22/topic/china%22%3E%23China%3C/a%3E%26nbsp%3B