While the weather forecast for the Belmont is becoming favorable, there is always the fear of a wet track and how it may move particular horses up (or down) based on their breeding. Let’s take a look at which Belmont Stakes competitors might improve in the muck.

We are assessing how their offspring did in all dirt routes (races of one mile or more) versus ‘wet’ dirt routes (races when the track status was other than fast) (muddy, sloppy, good, etc.). The win percentage in these two groups, as well as the HRN impact number, are then calculated.

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The HRN impact number compares a horse’s performance to the odds. As a result, an effect score of 0% performs exactly as the win odds would imply. An HRN effect score of +10 percent indicates that the horses are winning 10% more than their chances would indicate.

When we look at the sire data, we notice that majority of the sires’ wet track data is eerily comparable to fast tracks. In reality, the win percentage for Exaggerator (Skippylongstocking), Creative Cause (Creative Minister), and Ghostzapper (Golden Glider) is precisely the same, with only a one percent difference for Curlin (Nest), Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo).

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Constitution is the only sire who moves up in the mud (We the People). His offspring win 19% of the time on dirt routes, but 27% of the time on wet dirt routes. That is not only a rise of 8 percentage points to win, but it is also a 42 percent increase (27 percent over 19 percent). This is also evident in the HRN effect score, which is 22% higher.

On the downside, the Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike‘s sire Keen Ice is the largest mover. His descendants win 10% of the time on all dirt routes, but just 4% of the time on wet dirt routes.

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Again, that is a four percent fall in victory percentage, but it is also a 40 percent decline from 10% to 6%. This is represented in a -38 percent decrease in HRN Impact.

Barber Road, in addition to We the People and Rich Strike, is another horse where going off-track could have a moderate influence. His sire, Race Day, has a 15% victory rate on dirt routes, but that lowers to 12% when the track is off. HRN has a -23 percent impact.

We’ll find out on Saturday how much the weather affects the Belmont course, but if it does, consider We the People and possibly fading Derby victor Rich Strike.