The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance looks set to retain Assam, heading for a comfortable majority in the state. At around 2 pm today, the pack was leading on 77 seats, crossing the majority mark (64), while the opposition alliance led by the Congress party was ahead on 48 seats. The question that the BJP has been evading for a while will have to be answered now: Who will be the next chief minister of Assam?

The two contenders for the top post are the current chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal and his number 2, Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has handled key portfolios like finance, health, public works under Sonowal.

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So what triggered the question of who will be the next CM?

The BJP’s decision of not naming the incumbent chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal as the party candidate for the top post has triggered a wave of speculation that the top leadership of the party might be thinking of rewarding Himanta Biswa Sarma, if it returns to power in Assam. Sarma was the second most powerful person in the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government before he decided to dump the grand old party and joined the BJP in 2015, and has delivered for the party since then. Defector Himanta Sarma was a big factor in ending Gogoi’s 15-year rule in 2016.

Himanta, who is often called the ‘Chanakya of Northeast’, never shied away from speaking about his ambitions. In an interview with The Times of India, the No.2 in Assam had said: “They (PM Modi, Amit Shah) have my full record. So, for Assam, if they feel Himanta is the right man, they will give it to me. If they feel Sonowal is the right man, they will give it to him.” Himanta, however, added that if he “could gain something by lobbying in pursuit of that ambition, I would do it”.

Also read: Mamata Banerjee returns in West Bengal, DMK sweeps Tamil Nadu, BJP takes Assam

Meanwhile, Chief Minister Sonowal, who ran the state like a king with the backing of the top bosses, seems to be on shaky grounds with respect to the post of chief minister. The likely reason – his silent opposition to Citizenship Amendment Act — according to which Hindu, Christian, Buddhist, Jain, Sikh and Parsi migrants, who have entered India illegally, which means without having a valid visa, on or before December 31, 2014, from the Muslim-majority countries of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh and have stayed in the country for five years, can apply for Indian citizenship —  perhaps didn’t go well with the top leadership. Sarbananda Sonowal, by some accounts, is not very open to embrace Hindu refugees from the neighbouring countries. On the face of it, however, he now backs the Centre on CAA.

On the contrary, Himanta Biswa Sarma was clear and fought for what he thought was right. On the NRC, he demanded re-verification of names in some border districts and backed the Centre completely on the CAA. He could probably be rewarded for the same, say some political experts. 

With Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP pulled off something that they wanted to achieve with Suvendu Adhikari in Bengal.