The midterm elections in the United States were full of surprises. Donald Trump had hoped to ride a Republican “red wave” to a new White House bid, but after November 8 midterm elections, which saw only modest gains for his party and a strong showing for his main rival, the former US president appears to be lost at sea. As the evening progressed, however, President Joe Biden’s party showed to be far more resilient than even the Democrats had reason to hope, with factors like abortion rights and a general dislike of more extreme candidates playing a significant role. 

Several of Trump’s well-known candidates were defeated, but his main rival for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, Ron DeSantis, also triumphed handily to keep his position as governor of Florida. Republicans seem to be on track to take back control of the 435-member House for the first time since 2018, but only by a small margin. More than 100 Republicans who supported Trump’s “Big Lie” that Biden stole the 2020 election won that night, but a few of the former president’s hand-picked supporters fell short.

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Voters in five states supported abortion rights in ballot initiatives

Voters in five states supported abortion rights in ballot initiatives, rejecting the conservative-dominated Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the procedure’s constitutional right in June. Republicans only needed one more seat to take control of the evenly divided Senate in order to send a message to Biden in the midst of a bitter culture war and sky-high inflation. However, by November 9, Democrats had won the lone seat that had changed hands, with John Fetterman, a supporter of liberal economic policies, defeating Trump’s favoured celebrity physician Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.

A House controlled by Republicans could still scuttle Biden’s agenda by opening investigations, thwarting his goals regarding climate change, and scrutinizing the billions of dollars in US aid provided to Ukraine to help it fight Russia. With Biden’s approval ratings stuck in the low 40s and Republicans hammering him over inflation and crime, pundits had predicted a drubbing. The president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections.

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Instead, Biden is expected to come out of the midterms in much better shape than either of his Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, who both suffered losses in the midterm elections. Trump has not yet formally entered the race for president of the United States in 2024 but has stated that he will make a significant announcement on November 15 despite being under investigation by the law for stealing top-secret documents from the White House and attempting to rig the 2020 election.

Prior to election day, Biden had issued a dire threat to democracy warning, highlighting Republicans’ growing acceptance of voter conspiracy theories that had sparked last year’s storming of the Capitol.