In a rare occurring, California voters will decide whether to drive out Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom from office in a recall election, scheduled to happen on September 14.

It’s just the second recall election in the state to qualify for the ballot, but the second in the past 20 years.

Meanwhile, Newsom faced widespread backlash over state coronavirus orders that shuttered schools and businesses and upended life for millions of Californians.

Although he decried the recall bid as the work of anti-vaxxers and QAnon conspiracy theorists, Newsom enraged some including Republicans and small business owners with California’s strict and lengthy Covid restrictions.

That previous recall, in 2003, resulted in actor Arnold Schwarzenegger becoming governor.

However, not only will the election have far-reaching consequences for California, Newsom and his government, but also massive national impact.

Let’s take a look at how the political dynamics in the state and the United States could be influenced by the result of the recall election. 

1. Republicans eyeing a comeback: After President Joe Biden won in the state by almost 30 percentage points in the 2020 presidential elections, the conservatives have been left disgruntled and are hoping to spread their wings in the state. 

Given the widespread backlash against Newsom’s stringent COVID-10 protocols, the Republicans will be eyeing to swoop in with more lenient regulations and win over a major chunk of the voters, who have expressed dislike against the liberals.

2. A test for Democrats ahead of 2022: With the Democrats only slightly edging with the Republicans in the 50-50 US Senate, they have long hoped to control the upper chamber. 

There is a looming threat of Republican governance that would keep the Democrats motivate but will they be able to channelise and mobilise their enthusiasm on the ground will be an exciting watch.  

Democrats outnumber GOP voters by almost 5 million in California. 

The California governor has the power to appoint a U.S. senator should there be a vacancy, Newsom or his replacement would serve until January 2023, and Sen. Dianne Feinstein would be approaching 90 at that point.

3. Can Biden’s popularity influence the elections: After Biden’s controversial complete withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, imposition of COVID-19 protocols, including vaccine and mask mandates that have been heavily criticised by the conservatives, and push for the much-debated infrastructure package, the California recall election will bring to the forefront his popularity on ground. 

His approval ratings have slipped nationally but does he still hold the charm over the majority of the population? Only time will tell.