In 2016, Michigan put Donald Trump in the White House ending a run of six consecutive Democratic presidential election victories in the Midwestern state. Trump won Michigan’s 16 Electoral College votes by fewer than 11,000 votes. But, recent polls indicate he faces an uphill battle to defeat challenger Joe Biden there in 2020.
Why does Michigan matter?
Along with other swing states or key battlegrounds, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Michigan is the third brick in the Democratic Blue Wall that voted for Trump in 2016.
Since 1998 and George HW Bush, Michigan hadn’t voted for a Republican in a presidential election. Obama won it by 10 points, in 2016, Hillary Clinton appeared to take victory in the state for granted. Though Biden won the Democratic primary, Clinton lost it to Bernie Sanders. Blue-collar workers in the state flipped to Trump.
According to the 2018 midterms, the state is leaning towards Democrats. The party won the governor’s mansion, retained a Senate seat and gained two House of Representatives seats.
Who are the Michigan voters?
The majority of Michiganders are white along with a large Black population in cities like Detroit. There are marginally more women than men. Over nine in 10 people aged over 25 have graduated high school, higher than the national average, but only 28.6% have a bachelor’s degree or higher.
In 2016, Clinton lost the state, winning 90,000 votes fewer than Obama in Democratic stronghold Wayne County, including Detroit. Meanwhile, Trump gained voters in the suburbs but an unusually high proportion of votes (five percent) went to third party candidates. Compared to 2012, the turnout in this swing state was higher among white voters and fewer Black and Latino voters went to the polls. According to polls by FiveThirtyEight, Biden is leading by 53% this time.
Key factors
Jobs
In 2016, Trump promised blue-collar workers in Michigan to bring back overseas jobs and criticised NAFTA, a trade deal with Mexico and Canada. He accused Joe Biden of being a “globalist sellout” during a rally in the state. Biden, who was vice-president during Obama’s presidency, has stressed has talked up his role in supporting the auto industry in the wake of the financial crisis.
Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan governor, who disapproved Trump’s handling of coronavirus pandemic and the President dismissed as “that woman from Michigan”, could be key to turning out voters. According to new Detroit News-WDIV-TV survey, six in 10 Michiganders approve of her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 7,000 people in Michigan have lost their lives due to and it could be a decisive electoral issue.
Mail-in voting
More than one in every two American voters are expected to cast ballots by mail in 2020 as a result of COVID-19. On September 11, record high requests for absentee ballots hit 2.1 million but Michigan struggled to process mail-in votes in August’s primaries, with nearly 9,000 – almost the margin by which Trump won the state in 2016 – rejected because of delays or signature queries. If the final tallies are close, how effectively those votes are processed will be in the spotlight in November.
