The 2019 Maharashtra
Assembly elections had delivered a verdict as clear as day. The National
Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had
won the polls. Of the 288 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly, 105 went to the
BJP, 56 to Shiv Sena, 54 to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and 44 to the
Congress. Thus, between the BJP and Shiv Sena, the NDA had 162 seats, a clear
majority.

A government was
expected to be formed and Devendra Fadnavis, the man who had led the state from
2014 to 2019, was expected to continue. A status quo was ensured. This is when,
not unlike a bolt from the blue, Uddhav Thackeray, the son of Balasaheb Thackeray,
made a demand that would unwind the potential government – he wanted the chief
minister’s post to be shared.

This, for the BJP,
was nearly non-negotiable. The party was the single-largest in the state and
had led Maharashtra for five years. All that had changed was that the Fadnavis-led
party witnessed a minor drop in seats (from 122 in 2014 to 106 in 2019). But
the Shiv Sena wasn’t willing to let go its partial claim on the chief minister’s
chair.

Also Read | A faltering Uddhav echoes Balasaheb, says ‘will step down if Sena asks’

Uddhav Thackeray,
the man presumed to have a softer image than his father Bal Thackeray or his
cousin Raj Thackeray, was persistent. He said he would ensure that he fulfil one
of his father’s wishes – there be another Shiv Sena chief minister in
Maharashtra.

Tensions rose
after Uddhav Thackeray, on being asked about government formation in
Maharashtra, said “all options were open” to him. A furious Fadnavis said, “The
day poll results came, Uddhav ji said all options were open for government
formation. That was shocking for us as people had given mandate for our
alliance.”

For days,
Maharashtra was stuck in a quandary. The state that houses the finance capital
of India, thousands of acres of cotton-growing land and hundreds of villages at
consistent risk of drought, was unable to figure out a government, its
political establishment knee-deep in paltry questions of power. The drama was
far from over.

Also Read | ‘Unnatural coalition’: Eknath Shinde replies to Uddhav Thackeray’s emotional address

When Maharashtra
Governor Bharat Singh Koshiyari called Fadnavis’ BJP to form the government,
considering it was the single-largest party, BJP said it did not have the
numbers. It was at that time when Uddhav Thackeray asked his member of Parliament,
Arvind Sawant, to resign from the Narendra Modi cabinet, effectively ending a
three-decade-long partnership with the BJP.

On November 12,
President’s Rule was imposed in Maharashtra as parties could not reach an
agreement on how to govern the state. This was when Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress
had started working out a common minimum programme to govern the state. As the
arrangement started to take shape, a potential for stability seemed in the
horizon. But that wasn’t to be. At least not just yet.

At midnight on
November 23, Ajit Pawar, NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s nephew, in a sudden move,
extended support to the BJP. At 05:47 am, president’s rule was withdrawn and at
08:00 am, Devendra Fadnavis was sworn in as chief minister and Ajit Pawar as
deputy chief minister. The move threw a spanner in the works of the ‘Maha Vikas
Aghadi’ – the Shiv Sena, NCP, Congress coalition.

An alliance
between these three political parties had to be born out of extreme political
necessity. As ideologies go, Shiv Sena and Congress are on two ends of the
political spectrum and NCP somewhere in the middle. However, the political contests
in rural Maharashtra are primarily between Shiv Sena and NCP. Thus, while a
political deal was being worked out, political workers in the lower rung had
their doubts about the sustainability of such a coalition.

When Ajit Pawar
decided to support the BJP, Sharad Pawar said this was his own decision and the
party was not in agreement with Ajit. On the day the new Fadnavis-Pawar government
was called to prove its majority in the House, the duo resigned. Meanwhile,
Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress had decided on a governance structure and Uddhav
Thackeray was decided to be the chief minister.

A semblance of
sanity returned in Maharashtra with a government in place. The next two years
would see the COVID-19 pandemic that would wreak havoc in the state. From the
crisis at hand, Maharashtra emerged but its government had weakened. Uddhav Thackeray
was forced to be away from affairs of the government because of a spine
surgery. Sharad Pawar was giving birth to stillborn conceptions of opposition
unity. And the BJP was biding time for what critics call its ‘Operation Lotus’.

Trouble came to
Maha Vikas Aghadi’s doors when the BJP won five out of 10 seats in the Rajya
Sabha elections. Narendra Modi’s party was expected to win four but ended up
winning five on account of cross-voting. Behind this cross-voting was Shiv Sena
MLA Eknath Shinde.

Shinde falls in
the second rung of Shiv Sena leaders, just after the Thackerays. A
working-class political activist who found his way into politics through Shiv
Sena legend Anand Dighe, Shinde turned incommunicado after the Rajya Sabha
polls. He emerged after days at a hotel in Gujarat’s Surat where he had secured
the support of some Shiv Sena MLAs and was throwing an open challenge to Uddhav
Thackeray.

For Shinde to
avoid falling into the deep pit of India’s anti-defection law, he needed to
secure the support of 37 MLAs, two-thirds of the total number of MLAs of the
party. While trying to secure the support, Shinde received a call from Uddhav
Thackeray. The 10-minute call prompted him to pack up from Surat check-in into
Guwahati’s Radisson Blu hotel. By Thursday evening, Shinde is said to have
secured the support of around 40 MLAs.

Eknath Shinde says
he does not want to split the Shiv Sena. He said that Shiv Sena is about
Hindutva and the party should form a government with BJP and rule Maharashtra.
For Shinde, the Maha Vikas Aghadi is an unnatural coalition. Uddhav Thackeray
and his supporters, however, don’t seem keen on the idea.

While the situation
is developing still with Shiv Sena spokesperson Sanjay Raut trying to keep the
conversation alive, Uddhav has already left the chief minister’s residence and
has gone to ‘Matoshree’ – the family home of the Thackerays. The situation is
Maharashtra continues to develop with every possibility still on the table.
Politics remains a game of numbers and numbers will seal the fate of
Maharashtra.