elections in Uttar Pradesh coming to an end Monday, exit polls went live in the evening. Five states – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur – went
to polls to elect their legislative assemblies. The polls in these five states
are expected to serve as a bellwether for the larger trends in national politics. It is,
however, important to note, that exit polls often get it wrong. In the 2017
Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh nearly all exit polls got the numbers


In Uttar
Pradesh, India’s biggest state with 403 Assembly seats, the BJP is likely to win 221 to 243 seats, the SP 140 to 160 seats, the BSP 9-16 seats and Congress 3 to 6 seats, according to Opoyi Poll of Polls. 

Opoyi’s exit poll of polls constructs an average of state exit polls by averaging out the mid point and range outcomes predicted across all published exit polls.

However, even though the BJP is winning a solid majority, the party which is in power at the Union and promised a double-engine government, has lost seats since the 2017 elections. In the 2017 Assembly polls, BJP had won 312 seats. 

Also Read | UP Election Exit Poll Results 2022: BJP coming back to power in UP, predict exit polls

In the previous elections, the BJP won the polls 39.67% of the vote, the BSP won 22.23% of the vote, the Samajwadi Party 21.82% and Congress 6.25%.   


In Goa, India’s
smallest state with 40 Assembly seats and 21 required for majority, exit polls
predict a hung Assembly.

Opoyi’s poll of polls predicts the BJP winning 15 to 18 seats, Congress 14 to 18 seats, the MGP-Trinamool alliance 2 to 4 seats and others 3 to 7 seats. 

In 2017, the BJP won 13 seats with 32.5% of the vote share and went on to form the government even though the Congress had 17 seats. Congress’ vote share was, however, lower than BJP’s at 28.4%. The MGP had won 3 seats with 11.3% of the vote. 


In Punjab,
with 117 seats and 60 seats required to secure a majority, exit polls predict a
win for the Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Opoyi’s poll of polls predicts 23-32 seats for the Congress, the ruling party in the state, 57-71 seats for AAP, and 15-24 seats for the SAD alliance. The BJP is expected to win 3 to 6 seats. 

Also Read | Exit polls give Punjab to AAP

In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress won 77 seats, Aam Aadmi Party won 20 seats and the SAD won 15. 


The hill
state of Uttarakhand, with 70 seats with 36 seats required to form the government,
exit polls show a close contest between the BJP and the Congress.

Also Read | Exit Polls: Close contest in Uttarakhand, BJP holds edge over Congress

Opoyi’s poll of polls predicts BJP to win 32-38 seats, 31 seats for Congress, one for AAP and one for others. In 2017, the BJP won 57 seats and the Congress 11 seats.  


In Manipur,
with 60 Assembly seats and 31 seats required to form the government, BJP is set
to win, according to exit polls.  Opoyi’s poll of polls predicts BJP winning 27 to 33 seats, Congress 10 to 15 seats and others 12-23 seats. 

In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress won 28 seats with 35.1% of the vote; BJP won 21 seats with 36.3% of the vote and went on to form the government.