India had a significant second wave of COVID-19 infections starting February. Between February 11 and May 9, when the second wave peaked, the seven-day average of everyday new infections increased 36 times. Daily new instances have declined significantly since then, although the recent trend has exhibited some concerning signals.

According to statistics provided by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), the declining trend in daily COVID infections has slowed, with a modest increase in the positivity rate.

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What makes it so concerning?

This is concerning, especially in light of anecdotal reports of COVID-inappropriate behaviour in a number of locations, particularly tourist areas.

Over the last several days, the Central government has voiced severe concern over the throngs that have flocked marketplaces and hill stations. It has now issued a warning that it may reimpose lockdown-like restrictions in areas where individuals are discovered to be flagrantly violating the regulations put in place to prevent coronavirus infections.

To begin with, new infections are not increasing, but they are also not decreasing quickly enough. Second, the rate of positivity has already reversed its downward trend. On May 9, the seven-day average of daily positivity rates peaked at 22.76%.

Secondly, the all-India figures conceal state-by-state differences. In six minor north-eastern states including Kerala, the seven-day average of new cases has been climbing. Over the previous week, positivity rates have grown in 11 states and UTs. Finally, districts in other states are also impacted.

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The 7-day average of cases rose in 63 districts out of 707 for which data is gathered by How India Lives (Delhi’s districts are combined into one); 36 of these are from the eight north-eastern states, and 18 from Kerala, Maharashtra, and Odisha. However, in the last two weeks, the number of cases has grown in a few areas, even in neighbouring states.