The probable impact of Donald Trump’s arraignment on the GOP primary for the 2024 presidential election is likely to be significant. Despite calls from some Republicans to move on from the former president, recent polls indicate that he continues to gain momentum.
A recent Harvard survey conducted on March 22-23, which polled around 3000 registered voters, found that 50% of Republican respondents plan to vote for Trump in the primary. Thus, this means that there has been a four-point increase for Trump since February, demonstrating his growing popularity among GOP voters.

Many polls have shown that Trump is the clear frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, with no other declared or potential Republican candidate garnering double-digit support. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, a likely candidate, received twenty-four percent support in the Harvard poll, but in a hypothetical match-up between Trump and DeSantis, the former president prevailed with 56 percent to DeSantis’s 44 percent. However, in a hypothetical presidential primary without Trump, DeSantis becomes the much-desired candidate with around 45 percent of the votes.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has not announced a campaign yet, received a shabby 7 percent in the survey, while former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who entered the race last month, scored just 5 percent. These low levels of support for other Republican hopefuls show that Trump’s hold on the GOP remains strong.

The poll also revealed that half of the GOP voters believe Trump will win the party’s presidential nomination in 2024, indicating the continuing influence of his political brand. On the day of his indictment, Trump launched multiple fundraising campaigns, amassing around $4 million in funds, which shows his continued ability to rally his supporters.

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While DeSantis is seen as having the most potential to take on Trump, it remains unclear how he will fare in the race until he announces his candidacy.

However, it is worth considering that the political landscape is constantly changing, and other factors could come into play that may affect the outcome of the GOP primary. For instance, unforeseen scandals or controversies involving Trump or any other candidate could potentially shift the dynamics of the race. Additionally, the emergence of a strong third-party candidate or an unexpected challenger could further complicate the primary race.

In conclusion, while Trump’s arraignment on January 6th charges is unlikely to significantly impact his standing in the GOP primary, it is important to remain vigilant and closely monitor any developments that could shift the dynamics of the race. For now, it appears that Trump remains the clear frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, with other candidates struggling to gain significant support among Republican voters.