After his mercenary force staged a mutiny in Russia over the weekend, it has been reported that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is either already dead or is likely to meet a sticky end in Belarus, according to Daily Mail.
Additionally, the Wagner PMC soldiers are being housed at field camps being built in Belarus, according to the Russian military blogger Boriz Rozhin. Verstka, a Russian tabloid, has revealed that the camp in Asipovichy, Mogilev region, is being built for 8,000 fighters.
Nicolas Gosset, a political scientist and expert on Russia, of the Royal Higher Institute for Defence (IRSD), predicts that Prigozhin will be executed soon unless he has a wide network of allies in the top echelons of the Russian power structure.
“I have not seen any photos suggesting that there were 25,000 Wagner troops on their way to Moscow. If [the attempted coup] failed, then Prigozhin is dead,” Gosset told Belgian publication La Libre, “Either he is already dead or a hot cup of polonium tea awaits him in Minsk.”
“The other option is that Prigozhin has high-level support from one or more individuals in the very highest echelons of Russian power who disagree with the trajectory of the war. Either because they want more, or because they consider it suicidal and need to stop.”
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According to Gosset, Russian political elites may have “instrumentalized” Prigozhin to undermine Putin’s hold on authority and demonstrate that the Kremlin is no longer in complete control.
Prigozhin unexpectedly ended his troops’ “march for justice” on Saturday following battles with Russia’s regular forces on the way to Moscow. He did so after reaching an agreement that he said would stop bloodshed and a potential civil war in Russia.
According to the terms of the deal, which put an end to the biggest challenge to president Vladimir Putin’s 20-year rule, Prigozhin will move into exile in Belarus and won’t be prosecuted, but he won’t be in charge of the influential Wagner group any longer.
The Wagner commander is likely to be assassinated regardless of any agreements he may have made with the Kremlin, according to numerous observers, including Gosset, who also noted on Monday that Prigozhin’s criminal case is still pending.
Since Saturday, when he unleashed a five-minute rant in which he vowed to “punish those who have betrayed Russia,” Putin has shied away from the subject.
He has not mentioned the rebellion and purposefully avoided bringing it up in a video he produced today about Russia’s efforts to modernize its energy sector.
However, the head of the Kremlin spoke on the phone with a number of world leaders, including the presidents of Iran and Qatar, who offered their assistance to Russian authorities in putting an end to the rebellion.
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A former CIA director on Sunday advised the warlord to “be very careful around open windows” in light of Prigozhin’s agreement.
Retired US General David Petraeus appeared to be making a reference to the number of notable Russians who have perished under mysterious circumstances, including falls from windows, since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 when he spoke on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Petraeus remarked, “Prigozhin kept his life, but lost his Wagner Group.” And in his new surroundings in Belarus, he should exercise extreme caution approaching open windows.
While some of Prigozhin’s fans praised him as a hero, the Russian convict army threatened the Wagner warlord, accusing him of betraying them by abandoning his revolt against the Kremlin.
Additionally, footage of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting Russian troops was aired on Russian state television on Monday morning. This was his first public appearance since the failed insurrection that sent the nation into anarchy.
The appearance of Shoigu looked to be a message from Putin to Prigozhin, indicating that the beleaguered Russian dictator would not remove his defense minister from office despite a request from the head of Wagner to do so.
A group of former captives who are now warriors claimed in an internet video that Prigozhin’s decision to retreat before reaching Moscow was made out of cowardice.
They said that by reaching an amnesty agreement with the Kremlin, he had ‘double-crossed them’ and that his followers now feared reprisals from the Russian military.
The Telegraph claims that the footage originated from one of the Storm-Z brigades of the Russian army, which are composed of prisoners who have been promised pardons in exchange for fighting.
While Wagner has employed prisoners as mercenaries on the same terms, Storm-Z units are independent from the mercenary organization. Despite this distinction, Prigozhin is regarded as an unofficial commander-in-chief by many soldiers in the troops.
Prigozhin, who had already served time in prison, went around recruiting warriors in Russian jails by promising them freedom in exchange for six months of duty.
